Attrition Rate?

[Beavah]

SR540 mentions: "51 boys and 11 adults at summer camp this year....I have 20 new scouts that I work with and they all attended summer camp for the first time this year."

 

40% of a troop bein' new scouts is interesting to me. Suggests a unit of mostly middle schoolers. That got me wonderin' about attrition rates in different programs. This gets us a bit closer to Eammon's "what's the real problem" question.

 

What's the experience of the group? What percent new scouts each year? What percent of your active scouts are middle schoolers?

 

 

 

 

[va-scouter]

Our troop currently has 8 middle schoolers who crossed over in March, and 3 older boys. And, no, this isn't a brand new troop. It has existed since the 60's and has produced 47 Eagles in that time.

 

We were told by the scoutmaster when we visited that they had just in the last few years had trouble recruiting and had no idea why. If we hadn't crossed our boys over to them, they would've given up their charter due to lack of young men. Plenty of adult leaders with decades of experience between them, just no boys coming in the door.

 

[scoutldr]

51 boys went to camp.

 

All 20 new scouts went to camp.

 

We still don't know how many are in the troop (denominator).

[SR540Beaver]

We have 63 boys on the current roster. 11 boys went to Northern Tier this summer. 8 of those 11 also attended summer camp. 51 went to summer camp. 20 were new scouts. I believe it is the largest "freshman" class the troop has ever had. I've heard rumors that we had 18 or so a few years ago. We have an Eagle who was a JASM and just aged out and is going to college. I believe he will be registering as an ASM. We have roughly 25 to 30 registered adults. We have a very decent spread of both rank and age from 10.5 to 18. The troop has been around for over 40 years with a little over 140 boys earning Eagle.

 

Obviously, we don't retain every single boy until he is 18. We had 3 boys earn Eagle last year and 2 boys this year who have become basically inactive in the troop. They are in the 16 to 17 year range. I know of a few other boys at lower ranks and ages who are on again off again in attendance and a few boys who are rumored to claim they are dropping out. I've only been with the troop as an ASM just under a year, so I can't give hard numbers on attrition. What I can tell you is that we are truely boy led and they create a great program each year with the support of a great group of adults and we keep more than we lose. We attract more new boys than other troops have on their entire roster. That is due to the troop's reputation.

 

I believe we might be the largest troop in our district. Believe it or not, there are two other troops in two different districts that have well over 100 scouts.

[Beavah]

That's another interestin' thing to me, how the number of recruits for each troop each year tends to vary pretty widely. So some years, yeh get a big class of 20, which becomes a "baby boom" that drives the troop program as it ages, and some years you get a small class, which might become very small after some kids leave (small groups are often less self-supportin', and tend to have higher attrition, don't you think? Especially in same-age patrol structures.)

 

Twenty incoming every year should yield a troop size of 130 or so if there was no attrition; so 63 would be about a 50% attrition rate. That seems not too far from average around here for troops, perhaps on the high side. If the average class is 15, troop size (6.5*15) of 98, attrition of about 1/3 seems right on target, even a bit "good."

 

Is that what other folks are experiencing? 30-50% total attrition over program life, with some degree of boom-and-bust (or at least high and low) recruitin'? Just curious about da "real problem."

 

 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Since you are looking for plausible answers, you might rephrase it.

 

What are the perceived causes of high attrition?

 

and

 

What are the perceived causes of a low attrition rate?

 

 

FB

[Beavah]

Yah, Fuzzy. Actually, I was lookin' for the data first. People talkin' about causes without knowin' the numbers is like buildin' a barn out of cow chips.

 

* What are different troops' real attrition rates (i.e. what percentage of the boys who join do not eventually age out at 18)? I'm assuming a troop with a decent program, not one that's "on the rocks".

 

* What are different troops' year-to-year changes in recruiting numbers? How wide is the swing?

 

No point in speculatin' until we know what the range is, and whether we think it's a problem. SR540 doesn't view it as a problem in his unit, and I'm agreeing that it seems "normal" around here.

 

 

(This message has been edited by Beavah)

[EagleInKY]

Our troop is only three years old. We're up to 27 scouts. Our recruiting classes have ranged from six to 10 in the spring each year. We usually have one or two trickle in during other parts of the year (move into town, new scouts, etc.). We typically lose about 2 each year. I believe we've lost six total, three of those have moved to other units.

 

Because we're a young troop, most of our guys are still in Middle School (only 5 of 27 in HS). I know we're just getting to some of the most challenging ages, as guys get cars and girlfriends and discover lots of other things in high school. So, our numbers could change. However, based upon my gut, I think we'll retain most of the kids that have made it through their second year. Some will "Eagle out", which I frustrates me personally. If we do retain that many, we should have about half make it through their scouting career. I think that's pretty darn good.

[CNYScouter]

I am not sure if the Attrition rate always shows the real story

 

In the first Troop we were with 8 boys started the same time as my son. He is entering High School (9th Grade) in the Fall. He sees and talks with most of these kids at school. Of these 8 only 2 are left in the Troop.

This Troop doses really good at rucruiting each year and the size of the troop stays the same, but most boys that join don't make past the first year.

 

I am not sure about our new Troop but here are some numbers I can give:

 

I was told when we joined the Troop had 28 scouts with only 1 crossing over from a Pack and my son as new members.

Last summer 15 Scouts went to summer camp.

The boy who crossed over didn't go.

 

I saw that the Troop resistered 21 scouts and 9 Cubs crossed over from the Pack in March.

This year at summer camp 12 scouts went with 7 of these being Scouts that just crossed over.

 

If you look at the Attrition Rate (the rate of shrinkage in size or number) the Troop is +1 but if you look at what is really happening is they saw a big drop in size.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bev,

 

Let's assume that someone says, Here are the statistics on the 20 units in my district. Because your design is flawed, your barn will still be built with the same cow chips as before. The variables in unit attrition are high, making it a complex question requiring design control. Leader observation is flawed but it makes for good conversation.

 

I like my cow chips with a little dip on the side.

 

 

FB

[Beavah]

Yah, sure, FB. But at least the barn will fit on the plot of land I have, eh? It's one or two steps better than random leader speculation from (perhaps widely different) circumstances.

 

CNY already brought in another piece of data: active participant scouts vs. roster scouts. So another question would be "What % of the boys on your roster are active (come to at least half of the meetings/outings)?" That might be the most important figure, given Eamonn's original question. The actual attrition may be laggin' bigtime, and not show the real problem, if units keep kids on the roster for a long time.

 

I love to go where da cowpies grow and smell that dairyair.

 

 

[Twocubdad]

One of the curiosities I've noticed is the number of boys who join and never make more than a meeting or two. Every year we have one or two Arrow of Light Webelos who turn in an application, pay dues and never make it to a second meeting. That mostly makes me wonder about the parents. Also makes me think our dues aren't high enough. I have to say I think we run a pretty good Webelos transition program, especially the past couple years. We've had great Webelos campouts and open houses. I would like to have more den chiefs working with the Webelos, but I can only push the string up hill so far.

 

Long term, I'm just now getting to the point with my first class of Scouts that I'm starting to see some drop out. These guys are now third year Scouts. Of the original 8, two never made it to a second meeting. One moved away about a year ago and one dropped out this spring because he decided he no longer liked Scouts. Of the four remaining, two are Uber-Scouts I'll register as ASMs when they turn 18. The other two I would call "at risk." They are now 14 and see themselves as too cool for Scouts. I've been spending a lot of time with them, but how long they stay around remains to be seen....