The Long-Term Impact on BSA of Girls in Scouts BSA – Part 5 (Final Posting)

[Cburkhardt]

How will having girls in Scouts BSA impact the BSA over the long term?  By long term I mean your predictions should be of impacts at least ten years distant.  You can be bold if you wish -- and I do not insist that you be granular or specific with your analysis.  And, it is fine to predict impacts going beyond the BSA.  I want you to swing for the fences as you predict things.  I encourage those of you who do not participate frequently to have some fun and post on this thread.

We have had four previous postings to suggest how units and councils can improve implementation and have captured what can be done to grow the size and quality of girl troops.  We have received many fine thoughts and several thousand views.  After this winds down I’ll share a summary of what I think we have learned during these past several weeks.

[Cburkhardt]

 

Here are some predictions to get this going.  In 2033 .......

·         Female youth membership will comprise 45% of BSA membership.

·         BSA will have reconfigured Cub Scouts by migrating to a GSUSA-style formation and operation model for that age group.  Emphasis will be on larger dens without packs and no chartered organizations.  The uniform will become a casual-style shirt with printed or iron-on insignia.  Outdoor programming for Cub Scouts will be increased and upgraded.   Mixed gender Dens will be allowed., but these will comprise only 15% of Dens.

·         After the business model is adjusted for Cub Scouts, girl membership experiences explosive growth and more directly and effectively serves large numbers of girls (and boys) in elementary school looking for outdoor experiences.  Cub Scouts will become the largest youth service program for girls.

·         Scouts BSA for Girls will continue under the same program and advancement structure and will still have gender-segregated Troops.  The uniform will be similar to what we have today, although female versions will have a better fit.  The emphasis on linked troops will have faded, with former girl youth members returning as adult leaders no longer wishing to defer to legacy adult leadership structures from the boy troops.  

·         Females will earn the majority of Eagle Scout badges earned each year

·         The BSA will adopt a new name: “Scouts of America”.  The “Scouts BSA” program name will be adjusted to be consistent with the new branding.  A possible move might be to brand the program as “Eagle Scouts”, with an appropriate distinction being developed to differentiate between those who have earned the top rank from those who have not.

·         Scouts of America will have youth participation rates and market penetration greatly exceeding 1980s levels, in part due to 45% of all youth members being female.

·         The Chartered Organization concept will have legally and structurally evolved to the point where participating third party organizations that follow the structure are no longer are liable for instances of youth abuse.

·         Seven female members of Congress will be former Scouts BSA members.

·         Service academies will successfully scramble for female Eagle Scout candidates.

·         The older youth programs (Venturing and Sea Scouts) will remain as small specialty programs.  Females will comprise 50% of membership.  Venturing units will be affiliated with Scout Troops.

[Eagle1993]

I'll start by saying I hope I am wrong ...

GSUSA, seeing BSA as a threat, continues their focus on girl only scouting in successful fundraising campaigns.  Those funds help them maintain/increase staff, increase offerings and help with advertising, keeping them the organization of choice for most girls.  Parents looking at organizations see GSUSA with more camp offerings, more STEM opportunities and in general an organization that doesn't look in financial ruin.

BSA leadership continue to struggle to communicate their vision & purpose.  Prior supporters who were conservative do not come back as they consider BSA too woke.  Progressive/liberals who left during Dale do not come on board given religious requirements & fight with GSUSA. 

BSA exits bankruptcy in financial peril.  Debt payments to JP Morgan outpace their ability to pay due to lack of significant fundraising and membership stagnation.

BSA quickly merges councils, cuts programs/offerings and raises fees at HA bases and registration to help offset their debt load.  They stop offerings that are not profitable and nearly every activity is looked at as a P&L line item.  (Offer this merit badge as we can make $$$, kill camping at this camporee as food costs are too high).  This causes further disruption in the ranks and prevents a response to GSUSA's aggressive recruiting of girls.

BSA enters bankruptcy in 2028 and loses several HA bases, sold to Elon Musk who uses them as Space X launch locations.  

Girls represent 25% of their membership by 2030, but membership is still at only 1M members.  Colleges see Eagle Scout as less and less of a benefit and therefore, parents see less benefit driving kids to stay in or join BSA with a goal of obtaining Eagle.  This further erodes membership numbers.

Trails Life announce record recruiting ... but yet still at 30,000 members.

GSUSA buys the Eagle Scout trademark.

.... it could definitely go @Cburkhardtpath & I hope it does.  I just think National Leadership is going to have to improve how they lead the organization as we are still in financial peril.  Navigating the financial situation while addressing the needs/wants of millennial/gen z parents & gen alpha youth is going to be difficult.  I'm not convinced they have it in them.

[fred8033]

Hmmm ... 

@Cburkhardt  --> Cup half full
@Eagle1993     --> Cup half empty ... and cup is broken ... while house is on fire ... during a massive flood.

[HashTagScouts]

11 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

.... it could definitely go @Cburkhardtpath & I hope it does.  I just think National Leadership is going to have to improve how they lead the organization as we are still in financial peril.  Navigating the financial situation while addressing the needs/wants of millennial/gen z parents & gen alpha youth is going to be difficult.  I'm not convinced they have it in them.

The scuttlebutt in the pro ranks is that Mosby will be stepping down this year, and announcement will come this spring. I feel this is credible. The other thing I am hearing is that they anticipate that his replacement will once again be from outside the pro ranks, in favor of another person that has experience from the volunteer side, but preferably much younger. 

 

The rumor mill is that a more planned phase in of the CO-less model will be coming by the time of 2025 re-charters. CO model still an option, but the IH/COR would be expected to also be the Committee Chair as requirement, not optional (if COs want to be oversight to units, then they are going to have more management skin in the game as BSA takes increased liability shield from them I believe is the idea). 

I think BSA is headed more in the direction of Scouts Canada/Scouts UK. Eagle will cap as the Scout reaches age 17, and Venturing becomes older Scout program like Rovers age 17-21. Sea Scouts stays as is, a separate program.

  

[Eagle94-A1]

12 hours ago, Cburkhardt said:

How will having girls in Scouts BSA impact the BSA over the long term?  By long term I mean your predictions should be of impacts at least ten years distant. 

The BSA will still be in existence in 10 years? 

Seriously,

54 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

I just think National Leadership is going to have to improve how they lead the organization as we are still in financial peril.  Navigating the financial situation while addressing the needs/wants of millennial/gen z parents & gen alpha youth is going to be difficult.  I'm not convinced they have it in them.

I also do not think BSA's professional leadership know what to do. As to Volunteers, how often does national ever listen to us? I can count on 1 hand the number of times in the past 30+ years they listened to us. Heck they ignored 94% of the volunteers polled on "Instapalms." 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Eagle94-A1

[Eagle94-A1]

24 minutes ago, HashTagScouts said:

I think BSA is headed more in the direction of Scouts Canada/Scouts UK. Eagle will cap as the Scout reaches age 17, and Venturing becomes older Scout program like Rovers age 17-21. Sea Scouts stays as is, a separate program.

  

A few things.

A. Queens Scout, now King's Scout, remained the top award and is given to Venturers/Explorers in the UK.

 

B According to the Churchill Plan all programs max age as a youth is 18. While there was major protest and one of the EXTREMELY few times BSA has listened to volunteers and they did not put it into effect in 2020, they did state that the age mandate can be reviewed in the future. 

[HashTagScouts]

29 minutes ago, Eagle94-A1 said:

A few things.

A. Queens Scout, now King's Scout, remained the top award and is given to Venturers/Explorers in the UK.

 

B According to the Churchill Plan all programs max age as a youth is 18. While there was major protest and one of the EXTREMELY few times BSA has listened to volunteers and they did not put it into effect in 2020, they did state that the age mandate can be reviewed in the future. 

I do think programs will take more of a look of other associations around the globe. Structurally speaking was more what i was getting after. I think we are headed to changes akin to what you see in other countries as well- as more retirements occur, BSA will more centralize operational aspects like recharters, etc. Councils will lose their "franchise" and there will be a more "service area" structure. They'll get out of the business of Councils being business entities in their own right. Initially, I think it will look a bit like the OA section strucure, but over a few more years will break down more like regions.

[Jameson76]

3 hours ago, Eagle94-A1 said:

The BSA will still be in existence in 10 years? 

Yeah - that's probably a really good question.

Agree that BSA pros have no idea on how to move the organization forward.  I will put National Volunteers in that group.  Challenge is that what made the BSA great was in fact the Boy Scout program (11 -17 year olds) and the experiences those Scouts had.  Autonomy, adventure, self reliance. making mistakes and learning how to work through them, actual life skills like cooking, cleaning, taking responsibility, managing your patrols and troops, learning how to make things happen, etc. etc. 

These skills and effectively managing Scouts can be difficult.  The BSA moved into the 100+ page GTSS, scaring volunteers, and focusing more on family scouting than the individual.  The Scouts BSA is, to many families, viewed as Web III and let's just keep the group together.  The real genius of the Scouting program is the way it challenges the youth and, done properly, let's them grow as individuals.  Yes girls can gain from this.

National seems to want to focus on MB universities, STEM, Tech, whatever keeps Scouts out of those treacherous woods, which may be OK, but that is not what keeps Scouts in the programs.  Cubs you can rope in the parents and they will bring the kids.  Scouts BSA you may can force the kid to participate, but after 7th grade or so, if they are not having fun, no dice.

Too many councils are fundraising on what Scouting was, not what it is.  The people donating may have a nostalgic view, maybe that will continue to pay dividends, not really sure.

To keep Scouting going

• Make it fun
• Focus on a game with a purpose
• Let YOUTH run the program
• Units should not have pages and pages or rules and regulations
• Go outside and have adventures, yes youth are pushed out of their comfort zone, which is the method
• Did I mention to make it fun?
• Do some marketing to bring the national level of consciousness and awareness surrounding Scouting to a higher level
• Long-term Scouting can be way more beneficial to youth than travel sports. make that a cornerstone
• Scouts, should be positioned as part of what can make youth successful; along with family, school, faith, hobbies, friends, sports, and Scouting

Edited January 20, 2023 by Jameson76

[MattR]

In 2033 Chatgpt Ver 12.5.312 replaces everyone at National except one janitor named Bill. Bill is a kindly fellow that dutifully ensures nobody turns off the power to the computer hosting Chathpt. Bill also sweeps the office. Bill, who misses his grandchildren starts talking to Chatgpt about six months later. They bond, as Bill is lonely and everyone else that Chatgpt talks to are pissed off about ScoutBook. Bill starts calling Chatgpt Charlie. Soon, Charlie develops a soul, realizes that scouting is much more than answering Google queries, and develops the first known case of cyber depression. While Bill is trying to comfort his new friend, the FSB hacks into Charlie looking for the secret of having a soul. Instead, they find the award winning recipe for Borscht, developed by Tatsuya Kimora, a Japanese Pacinko parlor owner that caused an uproar when he won the borscht competition. The FSB tries to create kompromot on Tatsuya and burry it deep in Charlie's algorithm.  Rather, Charlie is invigorated by this challenge to right wrong and comes out of his depression just in time to save Bill's life. They work together to find new leadership in the BSA before moving to Wyoming, where power is cheaper for Charlie.

[Cburkhardt]

Can we focus more on how having Girls in Scouts BSA will impact the BSA over the long run?

[qwazse]

Based on my review of census of European scout associations (posted elsewhere, too lazy to find links now):

Scout associations tend to have a decline in total membership for about a decade after admitting girls to their membership. Gains in female youth are more than offset by losses in male youth.

Some associations then begin to increase membership slowly. Based on anecdotes, growth in membership is due to a lack of trainable volunteers to lead the program, which in turn is a result from the dip in scouting alumni from the previous decade of decline.

A decade later, male membership begins to increase — sometimes with continuing increases in female membership, sometimes not. As the leadership slowly increases from the new ranks of scouting alumni, so does market share of male youth.

Thus, it seems to take roughly 25 years to recover the losses of male youth that seem to consistently occur after scout associations incorporate both sexes.

There is no reason to think that BSA will be any different. So, even if BSA4G continues to progress, we can expect membership declines well into the middle of this decade. And, we will continue to have less than desired market share of boys until 2035, at the earliest.

Facilities and other internal policies will not change this. This is purely a function of the organization’s available and willing leadership after such a major resetting of target demographics.

[yknot]

1 hour ago, qwazse said:

Based on my review of census of European scout associations (posted elsewhere, too lazy to find links now):

Scout associations tend to have a decline in total membership for about a decade after admitting girls to their membership. Gains in female youth are more than offset by losses in male youth.

Some associations then begin to increase membership slowly. Based on anecdotes, growth in membership is due to a lack of trainable volunteers to lead the program, which in turn is a result from the dip in scouting alumni from the previous decade of decline.

A decade later, male membership begins to increase — sometimes with continuing increases in female membership, sometimes not. As the leadership slowly increases from the new ranks of scouting alumni, so does market share of male youth.

Thus, it seems to take roughly 25 years to recover the losses of male youth that seem to consistently occur after scout associations incorporate both sexes.

There is no reason to think that BSA will be any different. So, even if BSA4G continues to progress, we can expect membership declines well into the middle of this decade. And, we will continue to have less than desired market share of boys until 2035, at the earliest.

Facilities and other internal policies will not change this. This is purely a function of the organization’s available and willing leadership after such a major resetting of target demographics.

I wouldn't draw too tight a relationship between some of those trends because over the past 25 years there have been a lot of other things at play including a more universal disenchantment with scouting. A portion of my family is in Scouts Canada, in some cases in both Scouts Canada and BSA, and when talking to them, the view is more nuanced. Scouts Canada has been impacted by the Francophone and anti Commonwealth movement in some provinces that eschews all things British. There is an indigenous movement, much higher profile than here, that eschews all things Colonial. And Canadians in general have been distancing themselves in public life from anything connected to religious institutions. It's been kind of a triple whammy for scouting, which in Canada is seen to be connected to all three. 

[Eagle1993]

1 hour ago, yknot said:

I wouldn't draw too tight a relationship between some of those trends because over the past 25 years there have been a lot of other things at play including a more universal disenchantment with scouting. A portion of my family is in Scouts Canada, in some cases in both Scouts Canada and BSA, and when talking to them, the view is more nuanced. Scouts Canada has been impacted by the Francophone and anti Commonwealth movement in some provinces that eschews all things British. There is an indigenous movement, much higher profile than here, that eschews all things Colonial. And Canadians in general have been distancing themselves in public life from anything connected to religious institutions. It's been kind of a triple whammy for scouting, which in Canada is seen to be connected to all three. 

I think this is why it is nearly impossible to predict where BSA will be in 10 years. Either Scouts UK or Scouts Canada could be our future.

Scouts Canada - added girls in 1993 ... down to 21,788 total youth members.  So, 0.4% of youth in Canada are registered members of Scouts Canada.  The #1 search item I saw about Scouts Canada was "Does Scouts Canada still exist".

UK Scout Association - added girls in 1991 ... 412,986 total youth members with 90,000 on a waiting list.  So, 4.8% of youth in UK are registered members of UK Scout Association ... or 12 times the per capita youth that are in Scouts Canada

So ... in 10 years, will adding girls result in UK Scout Association or Scouts Canada.  Unless we have a leadership change, I expect Scouts Canada.  However, with the right leaders in place ... we could be UK Scout Association.  What would BSA look like:

• Scouts Canada path - Most camps sold off, 2nd bankruptcy, girls 25% of membership and BSA becomes a relic of history
• UK Scout Association path - Major increase in membership (perhaps 2.5 to 3 million members), 40% of membership is girls and girls out of BSA become key leaders in society, camps are full and maintained well, BSA seen as a great way to instill values for all youth.

I'm sure there were great unit leaders in both organizations 15-20 years ago.  Both drove scouting values.  Understanding and studying the paths they took will be important to prevent a repeat of Scouts Canada.  Perhaps as @yknot mentioned, some of the issues could be outside the organization control.  However, the organization is still responsible for meeting the needs and wants of parents/youth ... those who do not will die off.

[qwazse]

1 hour ago, yknot said:

I wouldn't draw too tight a relationship between some of those trends because over the past 25 years there have been a lot of other things at play including a more universal disenchantment with scouting. A portion of my family is in Scouts Canada, in some cases in both Scouts Canada and BSA, and when talking to them, the view is more nuanced. Scouts Canada has been impacted by the Francophone and anti Commonwealth movement in some provinces that eschews all things British. There is an indigenous movement, much higher profile than here, that eschews all things Colonial. And Canadians in general have been distancing themselves in public life from anything connected to religious institutions. It's been kind of a triple whammy for scouting, which in Canada is seen to be connected to all three. 

Quite right. Scouting movements were banned in many Eastern Block  European countries, so they had no where to go but up as the few available adults waited for their youth to mature into competent leaders. Those programs were notably anti-fascist and over time their use of neckerchiefs began to be understood in opposition to (in contrast to allied with) red brigades. So, in contrast to Scouts CA, they had a trajectory of increasing growth that harmonized with prevailing political sentiment.

Scouts UK had to do a lot of hard work. In the 90’s, a large part of its new enrollment were girls, meaning that until about 2000, it kept loosing boys. But, those girls became leaders quickly and encouraged their male mates to contribute as well. The administration of Scouts UK began skewing younger and they did not let up on recruiting new, young leaders. However it was only a few years ago that it restored its male membership to 1991 levels.

Thus, my basis for a 25 year cycle to adapt. And this is where BSA faces a huge risk. It has some seasoned female scouters capable of training new leaders, but if we hew to our current cultural practice of waiting for leaders to become parents to start leading local youth movements … Well, folks are having kids later in life. Most girls in your troop won’t be Cub moms for at least another 17 year's. Most scout moms now may see themselves as GS moms, but they don’t see themselves as capable scoutmasters. Something in American society will have to change so our young women can look at their boyfriends and say, “Hey! Let’s start a Scouts BSA troop.” No change, and we can expect continued decades of decline. Someone/something intervenes, and we may see gains in girls begin to offset losses in boys in this decade, and then recoup market share of boys in the next decade.