Chapter 11 Announced - Part 6 - Plan 5.0/TCC Plan TBD

[1980Scouter]

If the LC's raise their offer by the $800 million the insurance is adding I would say this is real and could work. But 40 million is a token. 

Even at 800 million, it is only ~3 million per council. Very affordable for them. Some would do more, some less based on the factors established. 

[Eagle1993]

Ok, a bit more info.

https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/086fbe27-7a3d-4f42-9a19-383482f8c997_7745.pdf

It looks like BSA's increase of $140M ($15M cash from LCs, $25M Loan from LCs and a $100M loan from BSA/LCs based on membership numbers).

This payment would release the UMC and Roman Catholic Church from all liabilities. 

[Eagle1993]

Here are payment terms on the $100M.

Note ... councils and charter orgs will need to agree to YPT changes.

The BSA has agreed to pay to the Settlement Trust an annual variable payment, commencing the year after the BSA Settlement Trust Note is paid in full and the BSA’s total outstanding debt under the JP Morgan facilitie up to a cap of $100 million

Payment must be complete by 2036 or $100M is met.  So, there $100M is the maximum they would pay and if membership grown remains under that, they stop paying fees in 2036.

The BSA expects to be paying down the JP Morgan loan ... note that once they complete they payment to the settlement trust, they believe their debt to JP Morgan and the Foundation  will be less than $225 million.  That still seems high.

Local councils will pay 25% of the payments.

Payments will be

• 50% of $72 paid by youth member in Scouts BSA/Cub Scouts each year in excess of 1,500,000 members.
• 50% of $45 paid adult in excess of 500,000 volunteer

Note that per BSA growth plans, this payment would start until well past 2025.  There is a chance this $100M becomes $0 if membership never exceeds 1,500,000 again.

[Eagle1993]

Ok ... a bit odd but would be good to see what others think.

$100M ... based on payments above, ignoring everything else.  

BSA's current business plan page 376 below

https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/2e1a8c44-7812-46a0-8a93-5aa5621dc7b2_6431.pdf

says they hit 1,010,000 scouts by 2025 and projects 5.5% growth rate after.  So, it would take until 2034 to exceed 1,500,000 scouts.  If everything works out, this $100M offer is really the following:

$2.5M offer in 2034

$5.4M in 2035

$8.5M in 2036

This is per the BSA plan.  Now, if BSA grows a lot more, sure, this could hit $100M.  But per BSA's current plans, that $100M would only hit $16M and in the mid 2030s.

[ThenNow]

Nixed.

Edited December 14, 2021 by ThenNow

[Eagle1993]

3 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

?

In the updated agreement, there was a footnote that participating charter orgs, ad hoc committee (local councils), coalition, FCR will work together to identify youth protection changes.  No details.

[1980Scouter]

9 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

Ok ... a bit odd but would be good to see what others think.

$100M ... based on payments above, ignoring everything else.  

BSA's current business plan page 376 below

https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/2e1a8c44-7812-46a0-8a93-5aa5621dc7b2_6431.pdf

says they hit 1,010,000 scouts by 2025 and projects 5.5% growth rate after.  So, it would take until 2034 to exceed 1,500,000 scouts.  If everything works out, this $100M offer is really the following:

$2.5M offer in 2034

$5.4M in 2035

$8.5M in 2036

This is per the BSA plan.  Now, if BSA grows a lot more, sure, this could hit $100M.  But per BSA's current plans, that $100M would only hit $16M and in the mid 2030s.

Thank you Eagle1993 for the update posts. I feel like this is phantom math.  It would take very favorable membership growth to reach the 100 million.

I just do not see that happening. This is one issue with the whole case, it is about the details. While 100 million looks good on the surface, when the details are explored not so much.

[Eagle1993]

So, with this, the guaranteed payments are:

$106M from BSA in terms of property/cash (after removing payments to Coalition, etc.)

$500M from local councils in cash/properties

$250M from LDS (for LDS claimants only)

$787M from Hartford (note for Hartford, this will not be an immediate payment and has some risk)

$800M from Century 

$15M from LCs (for 2 charter org buyouts)

$2.458M Total ... not 100% up front, but heavily

I believe $400M+ is pulled out for future claimants (have to check again) and payments will also go to trust leaders

Also ... $250M is for LDS claimants only.

Then there is 

$80M Note from BSA with $4.5M payment per year + payments per number of scouts

$100M Note from Councils 

$125M Loan/payment from BSA/Councils (really heavily dependent on big increase in membership)

 

 

[fred8033]

1 hour ago, Eagle1993 said:

This is per the BSA plan.  Now, if BSA grows a lot more, sure, this could hit $100M.  But per BSA's current plans, that $100M would only hit $16M and in the mid 2030s.

Tying settlement to future membership revenue is confusing to me.   This is a bankruptcy.  BSA is a new company after.  But the LCs are doing the payment because they are NOT in bankruptcy?  Is that the idea?  This settlement sounds like a Hail Mary play to try to find the end-zone.

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by fred8033

[Eagle1993]

1 minute ago, fred8033 said:

Tying settlement to future membership revenue is confusing to me.   This is a bankruptcy.  BSA is a new company after.  But the LCs are doing the payment because they are NOT in bankruptcy?  Is that the idea?  This settlement sounds like a Hail Mary play to try to find the end-zone.

 

My guess below.  This whole thing seems a bit like a hail mary (for the insurance companies, LCs and COs).  I think National could exit fairly quickly ... but the foundation of the program would be at risk given LC/CO future liability.  A ton of questions remain, confirmation will get to them.

From National BSA ... they are out of money.  The only money left would be selling their properties and then go after the JP Morgan loan (basically saying it isn't secured).  That could be a tough fight.  So, the only way they can provide more payments is loans and future payments.  If this was a National only situation, I wonder if these future payments would even be offered (probably not).  National is probably doing this to reduce burden on LCs and Charter Orgs.  Note that the future payments must still show they are financially viable, which is why they are tied to their business plan.  Basically, minimal payments if they are within their plan.  Major payments if they go over (as they are viable if they at least reach their plan number of scouts).

Local Councils ... as they are not in bankruptcy, as you stated, they can offer whatever they want that is accepted.  So, I expect they are balancing between immediate payments and future loan payments.

[johnsch322]

A bad deal for BSA survivors became worse with the "negotiated" settlement with Century and became a sweetheart deal for insurance company's. This is starting to feel more and more like the BSA is settling with insurance instead of survivors.

[johnsch322]

Copied from TCC website

The next regular Town Hall of the Official Committee of Tort Claimants' (the “TCC”) in the Boy Scouts of America bankruptcy cases will be held on Thursday, December 16, 2021, 8 pm (Eastern).

[skeptic]

7 minutes ago, fred8033 said:

Tying settlement to future membership revenue is confusing to me.   This is a bankruptcy.  BSA is a new company after.  But the LCs are doing the payment because they are NOT in bankruptcy?  Is that the idea?  This settlement sounds like a Hail Mary play to try to find the end-zone.

 

Much of it may have to do with the stress on the two largest remaining CO's and their concerns about the future.  That is the Methodists and the Catholics.  Our unit is experiencing a lot of frustration, and even some anger in response to the recharter issues.  And most of the pressure is from outside, caused by and broght to them by the whacked out legal system and , IMO impossible expectations of a few claimants, most that appear to care little for the broader issues involved.  And I am not dismissing legitimae survivors, only looking at what seems to me reality, versus pie in the sky wishes and expectations.  The old saw that "two wrongs do not make a right" seems, to me, to be applicable with this whole mess.  But, I keep hoping that our tired lady with the scale will find some relief somehow.  

[Eagle1970]

2 hours ago, Eagle1993 said:

Ok, a bit more info.

https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/086fbe27-7a3d-4f42-9a19-383482f8c997_7745.pdf

It looks like BSA's increase of $140M ($15M cash from LCs, $25M Loan from LCs and a $100M loan from BSA/LCs based on membership numbers).

This payment would release the UMC and Roman Catholic Church from all liabilities. 

The Catholic Church is directly responsible for my abuse.  Though SoL, by way of state legislators may leave them in the clear, its moral responsibility should remain.  And THAT is reflected in reduced membership in the Scouts AND Church.

[Eagle1993]

3 minutes ago, johnsch322 said:

A bad deal for BSA survivors became worse with the "negotiated" settlement with Century and became a sweetheart deal for insurance company's. This is starting to feel more and more like the BSA is settling with insurance instead of survivors.

To me, the biggest question is how UMC and Catholic Church are let off with a payment of $15M from BSA.  This seems to say that there is almost nothing expected from other COs.  I don't expect the $2.458B to grow much more.  Yes, there is upside to ~$2.8B and there are a few other insurance companies out there, but the big ones are in.

Lets say $2.6B total.  Remove LDS, remove FCR payment you get just about $2B.  Lets assume half of the claimants take $3500.  That removes ~$150M so you come down to about $1.8B.  Remove trustee fees (lets assume 10%) which is probably optimistic, you drop to $1.6M.  The remaining claimants will average $39K each.

Now ... where is more money.  Some LCs have more, some are tapped out.  COs, outside of LDS, have not contributed anything.  Insurance perhaps.  National is tapped out unless someone can go after the JP Morgan loan.   It seems like progress has slowed, so we are probably in holding until confirmation.