Scouting 2022 - What will it look like?

[gpurlee]

A simple (?) question for today.

Assuming that the BSA successfully emerges from the bankruptcy in 2022,

What will it look like?

What will be the same? What will be different?

Have fun with this one ...

 

[CynicalScouter]

12 minutes ago, gpurlee said:

Assuming that the BSA successfully emerges from the bankruptcy in 2022,

Depends entire on who comes along for that ride. Per BSA's data https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/213bd53f-b44f-45c9-97fc-246bcb7ca06b_4108.pdf

1) Under a global resolution plan (BSA, LCs, COs) membership in 2022 will be 994,000. That said, I suspect the mass exodus of COs will continue, but be replaced by others.

2) Under a toggle place (BSA only) membership in 2022 will be 911,000. 2022 will be the year of 10-25% of councils going into bankruptcy and COs engaging in a mass exodus. It looks like the almost immediate end of the CO system.

Edited September 3, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[qwazse]

Simple? Let us remember that it's a big country. So there will be no single outcome. Getting beyond stats ...

National Program (which, let's not whitewash it, is driven by some of the elite businessmen and women of America who saw scouting as a key to their success) will have roughly the same facilities and materials. However, delivery of facilities and materials will be passed on to volunteers -- or they will pay more for services.

Registration costs and fees will increase. Local program will have lost facilities, and some scouts will have to travel longer distances to summer camp, putting them at increased risk for vehicular accidents, dismemberment, and death. Premiums for insurance will increase.

Troops who lose CO's will be dependent on individuals offering meeting places and storage for gear. That increases the probability of lost/damaged gear, making it more expensive for scouts.

Training burden will increase, discouraging some volunteers.

Without generous donations from the neighboring communities, undeserved scouts will be shut out.

On a world stage, WOSM will become dominated by up-and-coming organizations. With less money from US sales of purple patches, it will be increasingly supported by organizations from burgeoning economies in Asia, Europe, and Africa.

[Eagle1993]

 Council Impacts

BSA will leave Ch 11 in major debt.  Councils will leave with smaller endowments, debt and less camp properties.  We have already seen a change of regions/areas within the National org.  I expect 2022 will kick off a start of council consolidation discussions.  I would not be surprised that the number of councils we have will be cut in half in 2-3 years.  I think this is highly likely (perhaps not 50%, but major consolidation).

Program impacts

Given the collapse of Venturing, what comes next from 18 - 25 year olds.   Given concerns about youth on youth ... will BSA continue having 17 year olds and 11 year olds in the same program?  I think it would be great if BSA relooks at something new to do with 18 - 25 year olds to keep them engaged ... perhaps the Rover Program.  My fear is that BSA decides, based on lawyers and insurance feedback, that they need to break apart Scouts BSA.  I would put a Rover program as highly likely (it is already in pilots).  The break apart of Scouts BSA is not likely ... but a small fear I have.

I also think there may be "simplification" of program offerings.  Cub Scouts already saw that with adventurer elimination.  I wouldn't be surprised if there some other areas eliminated that would simplify the program.  National will have less people to maintain program offerings, so they will focus on the higher volume aspects.  Medium likely.

Coed Units & DRP ... I could see this go many different ways.  I lean to BSA handling this poorly.  I don't expect this will change in 2022.  I expect they will wait 3 years and 2025, just when BSA is starting to recover, BSA decides it needs more controversy and removes DRP & allows coed units.

CO impacts .

BSA will officially launch a method for units to be chartered by councils.  I think this is highly likely.

YPT changes

More oversight, more reporting metrics, more training.  Perhaps DEs need to sign off on volunteers instead of or in addition to CORs.  Not sure of major changes, other than the possible breakup of Scouts BSA mentioned earlier.

Costs

All costs will increase.  Uniforms, fees, HA bases, etc.  Everything will go up.

[CynicalScouter]

39 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

CO impacts .

BSA will officially launch a method for units to be chartered by councils.  I think this is highly likely.

My experience this this. There already is an official policy BUT it allows for Council discretion and is used as a stopgap to tide units until they can get a normal CO.

The shift may be to take council discretion away and require they accept the role as a long term proposition.

[MattR]

It will be a lot like this past year - in flux, fewer volunteers, trying to figure out how to recruit. 

[RememberSchiff]

Scouts:

  - fewer resources and opportunities, e.g., Chemistry MB might only be available every other year at another Council.

Parents:

  - more turned off by registration pressure and time demands

Scouters:

  - a new rare breed

Units:

  - scouting as usual but with higher fees to above and covid issues.

 -  more drop popcorn

  - some experience confusion and stress over Family Scouting.

CO's:

 - save on utility bills as they close their doors and turn off their lights to scout units.

Communities:

  - more community service projects. I think scout units will increase visibility.

Councils:

- panic mode

- focus on asset management, merging, fund-raising, acting as CO's

- Executive Board will recruit lawyers, finance experts, and realtors.

- offloading to volunteers ( recruiting, program, training, all activity planning and execution)

National:

- focus on bankruptcy, legal issues, and public relations and not program or training (except YP)

- offloading to volunteers

- the next CEO/President/Chief Scout will be a lawyer, the second coming of James West.

My $0.01

[HelpfulTracks]

I am going to take a different view and look as 2022 as an opportunity. Sort of like the forest fire that, while doing a great deal of damage, burns out the dead wood and undergrowth to lead the regrowth of a healthier forest. 

We will certainly have a leaner National organization, and almost certainly leaner local organizations. The role of the volunteer will become even more important. One can hope that those who remember what the patrol method is, what Aims and Methods are about can help rebuild a healthier, albeit smaller organization that lives by the Oath and Law on a daily basis. One who puts more of the outing in Scouting again. 

Pollyanna? Possibly, but I have always been the glass is half full kind of guy. My Eagle, the OA, the Oath and Law still have a great deal of meaning to me and I hope always will. I feel an obligation to pay forward what Scout has done for me.