Bankruptcy, everything but the legalese

[MYCVAStory]

2 minutes ago, Muttsy said:

Add to that that insurance carriers have a near absolute legal duty to defend albeit under a reservation of rights, the financial risks to these carriers if all these cases go back into the tort system, it is a nightmare scenario for them. 

ABSOLUTELY correct and the reason the Coalition accepting The Hartford's lowball deal with the BSA and what I suspect will be more lowball setlements is a complete slap in the face to every Survivor.  It's a good deal for ONE group, the attorneys who accepted it.

[johnsch322]

1 minute ago, CynicalScouter said:

I am NOT saying that is the current TCC plan or if that will be what comes out when the TCC plan gets filed October 16, but that was what it looked like in May. Generally, broadly.

I understand so maybe I should have said it sounds like a step in the right direction.

[CynicalScouter]

Also, let's keep in mind back in April, it wasn't just the LCs: the TCC wanted to reopen/go after BSA a lot harder.

https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/884771_2506.pdf

1. They value the claims at over $103 billion. This is before any efforts at addressing statutes of limitations, which they do NOT do at all. BSA values the claims at $2.4 billion – $7.1 billion when adjusted for statutes of limitations and other things.
2. While BSA came up with its valuation for each Local Council and its assets, so did the TCC. While the BSA's valuations were filed (and in Plan 5.0 remain: LCs $1,870,754,935 in unrestricted assets, $1,432,473,515 in restricted), we never saw the TCC's. Suffice to say that TCC's definition of "Restricted" differed greatly from BSAs. So too did the TCC's understanding of how many camps the LCs needed and money they needed to function. Right now the BSA's Plan 5.0 calls for $500 million from LCs + $100 note/loan. TCC has said they want at least "over a billion dollars" more (so, $1.5 billion)
3. The TCC had been prepared to move/make demands on Summit Bechtel and the other HA bases. Expect that to come back into a TCC plan. https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/868464_1.pdf
4. The FCR, TCC, and Coalition had started a process to have the total value of all claims estimated by the U.S. District Cour. https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/883734_1.pdf

Edited October 7, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[leedavid815]

Bottom number of the Trust Distribution Procedures as defined by the TCC without mitigation is $26,197,703,000.00 Settlement must be somewhere between $26 and $102 billion to be acceptable as proposed.

Edited October 7, 2021 by leedavid815
Bad math calculated with too many 0's. This is based on the TDP minimums of BSA

[CynicalScouter]

3 minutes ago, leedavid815 said:

22,019,801,078,000

That number being around the GDP of the entire United States in 2020, give or take a trillion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)#Table

[CynicalScouter]

8 minutes ago, leedavid815 said:

Settlement must be somewhere between $22 and $102 billion to be acceptable as proposed.

So, let's parse that out a second.

Total BSA value is $1.2 billion

Total LC is $4-5 billion.

Total liquidation will never get you there.

So, what next?

Hartford has total assets of $70 billion. Chubb $197 billion. Century around $1.9 billion.

[skeptic]

22 minutes ago, leedavid815 said:

Bottom number of the Trust Distribution Procedures as defined by the TCC without mitigation is $22,019,801,078,000.00 Settlement must be somewhere between $22 and $102 billion to be acceptable as proposed.

I either need to have new eyes, or I need to change my understanding.  The figure shown here is in the trillions, not billions.  Now I understand errors happen, but am I reading this wrong, or is that actually somehow their pie in the sky idea?

 

[CynicalScouter]

18 minutes ago, skeptic said:

Now I understand errors happen, but am I reading this wrong, or is that actually somehow their pie in the sky idea?

You read it right.

The TCC is valuing all 82,200 claims at MINIMUM Base VALUE of $22 trillion. That assumes EVERY claim is valid, there are NO mitigating circumstances, and there are NO statutes of limitations anymore

The math is as follows (roughly) using the number of claims from https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/2e1a8c44-7812-46a0-8a93-5aa5621dc7b2_6431.pdf

	Base Min	Total Number of Claims	Base * Number of occurrences
Tier 1	$600,000	24539	$14,723,400,000
Tier 2	$450,000	18856	$8,485,200,000
Tier 3	$300,000	13022	$3,906,600,000
Tier 4	$150,000	17138	$2,570,700,000
Tier 5	$75,000	1879	$140,925,000
Tier 6	$3,500	1294	$4,529,000
Unknown or Data Missing	???	5481	??
		82,209	29,831,354,000

 

When you factor in statutes of limitations (Gray 1/2/3, Closed) that number drops to $102 billion or so.

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[skeptic]

Pure insanity from my perspective.  If that is truly their idea of fair and balanced, then they are under the influence.  Please do not give me the BS about I do not care or something.  This figure is simply so far out there that I am surprised they would share it.  

[MYCVAStory]

2 minutes ago, skeptic said:

Pure insanity from my perspective.  If that is truly their idea of fair and balanced, then they are under the influence.  Please do not give me the BS about I do not care or something.  This figure is simply so far out there that I am surprised they would share it.  

"Value" and "expectations" are two different things.

[CynicalScouter]

12 minutes ago, MYCVAStory said:

"Value" and "expectations" are two different things.

Right, and the point

15 minutes ago, skeptic said:

Pure insanity from my perspective. 

Not really insanity. Based on prior sexual abuse settlements, the numbers they are VALUING are accurate.

That's why I said

25 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

The TCC is valuing all 82,200 claims at MINIMUM Base VALUE of $22 trillion.

I bolded the word this time to make it clearer. And yes, if you look, $600,000 for a Tier 1 form of sexual abuse (not going to say what that is, but figure it out) is completely reasonable and if anything undervalued: they are using value MINIMUM here.

That is as I said BEFORE adjustments.

Now. you may also think $22 billion - $102 billion is also "pure insanity". I also happen to think BSA's attitude and demeanor, the horrific way it has treated a) these boys as boys and b) these men as victims has been "pure insanity". So, there.

Edited October 7, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[johnsch322]

9 minutes ago, skeptic said:

Pure insanity from my perspective.  If that is truly their idea of fair and balanced, then they are under the influence.  Please do not give me the BS about I do not care or something.  This figure is simply so far out there that I am surprised they would share it.  

So is there a number between 1.7B and 100B that would be fair and balanced in your eyes?

[CynicalScouter]

4 minutes ago, johnsch322 said:

So is there a number between 1.7B and 100B that would be fair and balanced in your eyes?

I would imagine there is a number between 0 and 100B that would be fair and balanced (nice phrase) in his eyes. Guess which end of the number line?

[johnsch322]

3 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

I would imagine there is a number between 0 and 100B that would be fair and balanced (nice phrase) in his eyes. Guess which end of the number line?

The lowest LOL. And no BS about caring. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by johnsch322

[Eagle1993]

Let's let the forum member respond.  I think there is enough room for many views regarding this topic.