Chapter 11 announced - Part 3 - BSA's Toggle Plan

[qwazse]

2 hours ago, ThenNow said:

I am not interested in denying any of my fellows a crack at whatever peanuts we're afforded, but I want to see at least some worn, crumbled and faded receipts, as well. I know many survivors from various age groups and abuse contexts. I don't know any who couldn't give you that information, in one form or another. Zero evidence or corroborating points of reference is not a good sign of viability, in MY opinion only. The TCC isn't begging claimants to file amendments with missing details for their good health and amusement. 

There is a difference between any traditionally collected sample of survivors, and a cohort who signs on as a class of survivors in legal action. What's unknown is the magnitude of that difference. Even if a large percentage are not verifiable (and I couldn't begin to say what constitutes a "large" percentage, given that 85,000 already constitutes a small percentage of scouting alumni), there is no frame of reference to tell us if that the "non verifiable" category represents an inordinate number of false claims.

In my very small sample of survivors who I've talked with, none of them could give what I'd call strong corroborating points of reference. The only reason they'd know their abuser was because most were related. I can imagine that point being lost to the victim's memory if they weren't related.

In other words, the definition of "viable" might have some basis in law, but not in science. So, there is an invisible bar to be determined, and it is in TCC's interest to get as many claimants to exceed some unknown standard.

[CynicalScouter]

48 minutes ago, 100thEagleScout said:

I wonder if COs might have a defense of “We signed away our liability to BSA, so talk to them”.

Maybe? More likely will be BSA telling the COs "read what those pre-1978 or so Charter Agreements actually said. We didn't promise you a thing."

That is why the new 2020/2021 agreement spells out, in precise minute detail, exactly how much COs are covered for. https://www.scouting.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Annual-Charter-Agreement-Charter-Organizations-.pdf

The Local Council agrees to:

•Provide primary general liability insurance to cover the Charter Organization, its board, officers, Charter Organization Representative (COR), employees, and adult volunteers for authorized Scouting activities. Indemnify the Charter Organization in accordance with the resolutions and policies of the National Executive Board of the Boy Scouts of America.

“The general liability policy issued to the Boy Scouts of America provides primary liability insurance coverage for all chartered organizations for liability arising out of their sponsorship of a traditional Scouting unit. Evanston Insurance Company provides the first $1 million per occurrence coverage. Additional policies, all providing primary coverage to the chartered organization, have beenpurchased so that more than $10 million in primary coverage is provided. There is no coverage for those who commitintentional or criminal acts. Liability insurance is purchased to provide financial protection in the event of accidents or injury that is neither expectednor intended.”

Edited June 10, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[ThenNow]

24 minutes ago, qwazse said:

In my very small sample of survivors who I've talked with, none of them could give what I'd call strong corroborating points of reference.

Forgive me and respectfully, but you have noted this small sample at least three times that I recall. I'm not you, but I wouldn't be willing to draw conclusions based upon that admittedly small sampling. I'm curious how many are in that anecdotal study group, their ages now and at the time of abuse, gender and why you think it can inform a context of abuse not by someone related to the victim. Also, I did not use the word "strong" when suggesting there should be corroborating points of reference where there are currently none.

Edited June 10, 2021 by ThenNow

[CynicalScouter]

42 minutes ago, qwazse said:

In my very small sample of survivors who I've talked with

Yeah, that's called (at best) convenience sampling. It has precisely 0 statistical worth or value when trying to make generalizations as to a group (BSA child sexual abuse victims).

At worst it is called anecdata.

Both are scorned if used to try and extrapolate anything about anything.

"plural of the word anecdote is not data" as my old research methods professor beat into my head.

And there are ways to sample sexual abuse victims with scientific rigor.

Relying on a) people you talked to or b) sexual abuse victims who filed claims are poor substitutes.

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[ThenNow]

21 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

And there are ways to sample sexual abuse victims with scientific rigor.

When I was talking about points of reference, I wasn't trying to be cute about where we live, what the patch looked like, who we remember being around at the time, the color of a car or driving by a park, and, etc. We are trying to map coordinates to "triangulate" and reveal the target location: data on the abuse. The abuser, the when, the what of the surroundings, the where and sometimes the precise details of the abuse. Some of those things should be discoverable/accessible to the memory to serve as clues. We build our case from the details we can provide. This, of course, includes fallout that can be evidence after the fact. From my reading, some of this "proof" is reverse engineering back to the scene of the crime.

Edited June 10, 2021 by ThenNow

[100thEagleScout]

36 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Provide primary general liability insurance to cover the Charter Organization, its board, officers, Charter Organization Representative (COR), employees, and adult volunteers for authorized Scouting activities.

I’m glad this addition was added because I may be assuming the role of COR soon and I would expect as much for volunteering to sponsor a troop.

[ThenNow]

26 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

And there are ways to sample sexual abuse victims with scientific rigor.

Do you have something specific in mind from past cases or a link to the methods?

[CynicalScouter]

8 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

When I was talking about points of reference, I wasn't trying to be cute about where we live, what the patch looked like, who we remember being around at the time, the color of a car or driving by a park, and, etc.

Right, there are ways to

1. Work through INDIVIDUAL sexual assault victims for recollection and
2. Collect data across hundreds/thousands of sexual assault victims (in a scientifically rigorous way) to try and draw conclusions about sexual assault.

"I talked with a few people and they said..." doesn't work for either of those two.

[CynicalScouter]

15 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Do you have something specific in mind from past cases or a link to the methods?

Not my field, but I've got people I know who indicate that a robust study (or meta-anlysis of robust studies) was The Sexual Victimization of Men in America: New Data Challenge Old Assumptions. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4062022/

This is not about child sexual abuse specifically (it is included in sexual abuse in general), but it DOES show how a proper study is conducted. hey used real scientific data collection methods and probability sampling; not anecdata.

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[Eagle1993]

One additional tidbit from Kosnoff.

He is claiming there are tens of thousands of others who didn't meet the 11/16/2020 claim date that have claims ready.  Once the stay is lifted, it sounds like his and other firms are ready to sue COs and LCs with additional claimants (beyond the 84,000).  (National BSA is protected if the claims are prior to Feb 2020).

Now, he could be bluffing.  However, I have seen advertisements running on TV recently to sue the BSA from AVA.  At first, I didn't think much of it ... but now I wonder.    There is only 1 reason to keep spending on ads.  

[ThenNow]

4 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

This is not about child sexual abuse

Thanks. I was curious if you were at 30,000 feet or on the ground.

On the ground, I studied how CSA is prosecuted. Given the high standard of proof, it can be a wonderful education in the real world rigor of successfully prosecuting a child sexual abuser. Of course, we're talking about a preponderance here, but having a better understanding of the every jot and tittle approach helped me. Conversely, I've studied how defense attorneys defend accused and certain sex offenders. That was eye opening to help understand what's required to lock down and plug the holes in a case.

[100thEagleScout]

Just now, Eagle1993 said:

One additional tidbit from Kosnoff.

He is claiming there are tens of thousands of others who didn't meet the 11/16/2020 claim date that have claims ready.  Once the stay is lifted, it sounds like his and other firms are ready to sue COs and LCs with additional claimants (beyond the 84,000).  (National BSA is protected if the claims are prior to Feb 2020).

Now, he could be bluffing.  However, I have seen advertisements running on TV recently to sue the BSA from AVA.  At first, I didn't think much of it ... but now I wonder.    There is only 1 reason to keep spending on ads.  

I haven’t seen these ads, but he’s not bluffing.  I think it’s just only claims in the bankruptcy court are allowed to bring forward local council lawsuits at the moment, so they are prioritizing some of those claims first and then will bring forward more claims if BSA releases local councils from the automatic stay.  I also think he may try to bring the issue of revoking BSA’s congressional charter again since he seemed interested based on his reaction on Twitter.

[yknot]

13 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Right, there are ways to

1. Work through INDIVIDUAL sexual assault victims for recollection and
2. Collect data across hundreds/thousands of sexual assault victims (in a scientifically rigorous way) to try and draw conclusions about sexual assault.

"I talked with a few people and they said..." doesn't work for either of those two.

I think there is another way that has been used in other class action suits, often regarding health issues.  They have the data in the claims, some of which has already been entered. Once the data is input, it's not difficult to mine for corroborating clusters of cases in certain physical locations, in certain time frames, among certain councils, units, or camps, and cross check any incomplete claims against claims with identified and known abusers. For example, you might have a cohort of scouts in X region during Y timeframe who attended Z camp. If they can be matched up to a subset who were able to name an abuser, that lends credence to all the claims, even if some of them are missing a piece of information.  So, Tommy was from X unit but can't remember where he went to camp or who the abuser was. However, he also went during Y timeframe. If a dozen other claims are reported in his same council who attended Z camp during Y time frame, and some of those claims ID an abuser, it lends credence to Tommy's claim. There are all sorts of ways the claims can be examined to look for common elements that would corroborate. 

[ThenNow]

2 minutes ago, yknot said:

There are all sorts of ways the claims can be examined to look for common elements that would corroborate. 

Is that the computer's job or the lucky Trustee's? 

[100thEagleScout]

4 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Is that the computer's job or the lucky Trustee's? 

I’d like to say both