National releases membership numbers. All programs down 40-48%

[CynicalScouter]

1 hour ago, mashmaster said:

The fact that Packs have basically shut down is the scariest part.  If Packs die, BSA dies all together.  Older units should be reaching out to Packs to help them recruit and run program.  

That's the big worry for me as well and why I am very, very interested to see the July 2021 KPI numbers. I'd be VERY curious to see if National even allows them to be released in any shape or form.

 

[Owls_are_cool]

My District's scout numbers in Montana are down by half in the past year....mostly due to cub scout numbers. The BSA should be promoting first time joins or rejoins for free this summer (or something like that).

[mashmaster]

21 minutes ago, Owls_are_cool said:

My District's scout numbers in Montana are down by half in the past year....mostly due to cub scout numbers. The BSA should be promoting first time joins or rejoins for free this summer (or something like that).

Agreed make that first year free, do some free or really cheap cub events

[PACAN]

Yes.  2021 March KPI report that the summary page numbers were shared with me.  March 2020 to March 2021 comparison.  I'm guessing the 2021 numbers are post rechartering. 

                           Cubs                 Scouts BSA       V/SS                 Explorers           Total

2021               348738                369716                13832               16787                 749073

2020              641939                 417360                25399              58311                 1143009

 

 

[yknot]

12 minutes ago, PACAN said:

Yes.  2021 March KPI report that the summary page numbers were shared with me.  March 2020 to March 2021 comparison.  I'm guessing the 2021 numbers are post rechartering. 

                           Cubs                 Scouts BSA       V/SS                 Explorers           Total

2021               348738                369716                13832               16787                 749073

2020              641939                 417360                25399              58311                 1143009

 

 

Thank you. Just to make sure I'm reading this right, total membership in 2021 is now approximately 750,000? That's shocking but in line with what I was hearing would happen once the grace period ended for late recharters.  

[Eagle1993]

14 minutes ago, PACAN said:

Yes.  2021 March KPI report that the summary page numbers were shared with me.  March 2020 to March 2021 comparison.  I'm guessing the 2021 numbers are post rechartering. 

                           Cubs                 Scouts BSA       V/SS                 Explorers           Total

2021               348738                369716                13832               16787                 749073

2020              641939                 417360                25399              58311                 1143009

 

 

Ugly numbers, especially if you look at 2019.

Scouts BSA ... not too bad considering.  Long term concern if Cubs don't increase.

Explorer posts ... my guess a bunch shut down as I'm sure PO and Fire Departments would not look at working with youth groups during Covid.  It will probably take until 2022 for this to start recovery.  No idea what % would return.

Cubs ... very little recruiting in 2020, AOL cross overs and drop outs as Cub Scouting via zoom is ok but not great.  To me, units that survived should see a bounce this fall.  The bigger concern is loss of units ... it takes a lot of effort to restart a dead Pack.

Venturing/SS ... I think Venturing is dying and I would be surprised if there is a bump in that number.  I think our district lost our only Venturing crew.  SS I expect will bounce back up if they were part of the drop.

 

[CynicalScouter]

9 minutes ago, yknot said:

Thank you. Just to make sure I'm reading this right, total membership in 2021 is now approximately 750,000? That's shocking but in line with what I was hearing would happen once the grace period ended for late recharters.  

That's the way I read it, too. And consistent with what I had heard.

To put this into perspective folks:

1. The last time total youth (Cub + Scouts, BSA + Venturing/Sea Scouts + Exploring) was this low was was between 1933 (707,598) and 1934 (774,594)
2. The last time Cub Scouts was this low was 1943 (300,782) and 1944 (412,871)
3. The last time Scouts, BSA was this low was between 1919 (360,790) and 1920 (389,352)

EVEN IF everything DOUBLES, we are talking massive, massive losses.

1. A doubling of total youth to 1,498,146 would put BSA back to where it was in 1947 (1,584,927)
2. A doubling of Cub Scouts to 697,476 would put Cubs back to where it was between 1948 (608,716) and 1949 (766,635)
3. A doubling of Scouts, BSA to 739,432 would put Scouts, BSA back to where it was in 1935 (738,628)

We have an entire institutional infrastructure (local councils, camps, HA bases, National structure and organization, etc.) built for a 1980s-1990s program (at best) but numbers are that are closer to WW2.

BSA, if it survives, is basically going back to scratch.

[yknot]

1 minute ago, CynicalScouter said:

That's the way I read it, too. And consistent with what I had heard.

To put this into perspective folks:

1. The last time total youth (Cub + Scouts, BSA + Venturing/Sea Scouts + Exploring) was this low was was between 1933 (707,598) and 1934 (774,594)
2. The last time Cub Scouts was this low was 1943 (300,782) and 1944 (412,871)
3. The last time Scouts, BSA was this low was between 1919 (360,790) and 1920 (389,352)

EVEN IF everything DOUBLES, we are talking massive, massive losses.

1. A doubling of total youth to 1,498,146 would put BSA back to where it was in 1947 (1,584,927)
2. A doubling of Cub Scouts to 697,476 would put Cubs back to where it was between 1948 (608,716) and 1949 (766,635)
3. A doubling of Scouts, BSA to 739,432 would put Scouts, BSA back to where it was in 1935 (738,628)

We have an entire institutional infrastructure (local councils, camps, HA bases, National structure and organization, etc.) built for a 1980s-1990s program (at best) but numbers are that are closer to WW2.

BSA, if it survives, is basically going back to scratch.

I think it's going to be next to impossible to maintain program momentum and do any meaningful recruitment with numbers like this. Trying to recruit new Tiger leaders is tough without a lot of support. I also don't think things are going to magically rebound when (if) Covid is gone. Covid is not the only reason numbers have been declining although it's certainly been the most impactful. 

[CynicalScouter]

53 minutes ago, yknot said:

Covid is not the only reason numbers have been declining although it's certainly been the most impactful. 

Let me put it this way.

Between 2010 and 2019 (before the LDS left and COVID) Cub Scouts dropped 27%. At a time when U.S. Male Population age 5-11 dropped only about .6%

During that same time period, Scouts, BSA lost 11%. U.S. Male Population age 12-17 only dropped around 1.7%

That's what is insane here. You cannot attribute it to a lack of kids.

They (or perhaps their parents, or both) just couldn't be bothered. And COVID isn't going to change that trend.

Source: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NC-EST2019-AGESEX-RES)

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[mrjohns2]

2 hours ago, mashmaster said:

Agreed make that first year free, do some free or really cheap cub events

The Girl Scouts did this. Especially half way through the year. That makes a lot of sense for the BSA to do the same, say, just about now. Make it free to join, and hope when recharter rolls around, they pay. 

[CynicalScouter]

2 hours ago, mashmaster said:

Agreed make that first year free, do some free or really cheap cub events

My question is: can they afford to? I know, generally, a lot of councils are really cash strapped now more than ever.

This would also require that BSA do a complete 180 on first time joiners. As you may recall last year they imposed, for the first time ever, a joining/initiation fee.

[Eagle1993]

1 hour ago, mrjohns2 said:

The Girl Scouts did this. Especially half way through the year. That makes a lot of sense for the BSA to do the same, say, just about now. Make it free to join, and hope when recharter rolls around, they pay. 

We did the opposite.  I have to charge $25 new scout signup fee + registration fees.  We dropped our Pack fee for now.

[PACAN]

And the national fee is scheduled to go up and councils can add a matching fee and and and....

My friend did a look at the entire report (he has)  and points out that about 25% of councils have 1000 or less youth.  

Need a lot of exponential doubling for these councils.

 

 

[CynicalScouter]

28 minutes ago, PACAN said:

And the national fee is scheduled to go up and councils can add a matching fee and and and....

My friend did a look at the entire report (he has)  and points out that about 25% of councils have 1000 or less youth.  

Need a lot of exponential doubling for these councils.

Here's the sad, sad part is that National cannot even keep its lies (no other way to put it) straight.

Last May, then the $66 increase was announced, several councils ALSO let the cat out of the bag that in fact BSA National was planning to hike fees in 2021 and 2022.

Middle Tennessee Council, for example.

Quote

Last week, the Boy Scouts of America announced that the annual membership fee for youth and young adult participants will increase from $60 to $66 effective August 1, 2020. There will also be a onetime BSA joining fee for new members of $25. If a Scout has been registered in the last five years, BSA will not charge the new member fee. In addition, BSA plans to increase the membership fee to $72 on August 1, 2021, and to $75 on August 1, 2022. No fee increases are planned past 2022. None of the membership fee charged by the BSA stays in the Middle Tennessee Council, all the fee is sent to the BSA. The BSA membership fee changes can be found below.

BSA National went nuts, demanding Councils remove that, and denied that any such increase was approved. They claimed only that it was being "discussed".

I will put money on the table that the 2021 and 2022 increases will take place.

 

[InquisitiveScouter]

35 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

I will put money on the table that the 2021 and 2022 increases will take place.

The reasons to depart are reaching critical mass...