National releases membership numbers. All programs down 40-48%

[Eagledad]

5 minutes ago, GrubKnot said:

Sorry to veer off topic. Just making a suggestion for possibly improving the Cub Scout program & possibly keep scouts engaged.  I keep reading the previous post "tipped the balance of managing the program". Enlighten me.

Yes, that is just me. What I mean is the ability for the average parent to manage the program as intended or expected. There are several complicated reasons why the program is so heavy now, but the biggest issue is that five years is too long for the average adult to volunteer their time. Most experience leaders will say 3 years is about all we can expect before burnout. That is at all levels of scouting. In fact, we found that new Venturing Crews started to fade in their 4th year just for that reason.

Before Tigers, the Cub program was 4 years long, but it was an easy 4 years. Tigers added 5, and it is not an easy program. Burned out Bear leaders is a very significant issue, and there is still 2 more years of Cub Scouting left for their son. Lots of ways to discuss that problem, but we found that when a parent burns out or leaves, the son, one way or another, is dragged out with them. If the Scout makes it to cross over, there is still only a 50/50 chance they will join a troop. And if the adult makes it through the cub program, they are too burned out for the troop. I watched several adults I pegged to be good Scoutmasters burnout in cubs. 

I know we were discussing interviewing dropout scouts, but up at least until their 2nd year of the troop program, parents are usually the drivers of their sons dropping out. If you keep the parents, you keep the sons. I even taught pack leaders how to shape their program so that it was more attractive to the parents. Packs that take care of the parents and leaders have low burnout rates.

Barry

[MattR]

52 minutes ago, Eagledad said:

Scouts generally don't like to tell adults something the think adults don't want to hear.

i.e., the scouts don't trust the adults. That both sounds like human nature and one of the bigger challenges holding back troops. When a scout says "I just don't like that" it might mean "I don't know how to do that and don't want to make a fool of myself" or "I tried that once before and did make a fool of myself" or "I'd really like to do that but 'they' told me it's not cool" (and 'they' might also be afraid of making fools of themselves) or "I'm more worried about getting cold/hungry/wet/etc" or "I don't have the money for that" or "I don't want to miss the dance at school" or .... For some scouts they just don't know how to talk about things that bother them. Figure this out and you'd have a lot more happy scouts and parents.

[yknot]

6 hours ago, PACAN said:

Someone told me they had seen a Feb 2021 report like the one cynical shared and the total BSA was about 950K

Somewhere along the line I read a prediction that BSA membership would be around 800K after the end of 2020. I don't think the Dec. 2020 membership numbers are the final picture.

 

[BAJ]

5 hours ago, GrubKnot said:

Drop lion & tiger ranks

Keep the Bobcat requirement

Have Wolf, Bear & Webelo ranks

That sounds a lot like the Cub Scout program I went through.... I think Tiger had just sort of become a thing then...

[5thGenTexan]

I joined Cub Scouts as a Wolf in the 82/83 school year.  I couldnt tell you if we had Tigers or not.  I know I was never a Tiger.

As current CM, I am not sure I see much point in Lions/Tigers.  I think Wolf would be a good starting point.

Edited March 19, 2021 by 5thGenTexan

[InquisitiveScouter]

20 hours ago, Eagledad said:

That drop has been consistent since National started tracking drop outs. The cause is a human nature reality that is hard to get around.

I'm saying the 21% would be a lot less if not for the first year drop outs, which would expose the cub program problem to be even more significant.

I believe about half of the Scouts we see enter at 10.5 to 11 years old (and their parents) are not really psychologically ready for the shift towards more personal responsibility and less parent involvement.

Over the years I have seen attrition in that age cohort of about a fourth, at most.

If they make it through the first year , their retention rate thereafter is high...over 90%.

 

 

[Eagledad]

36 minutes ago, InquisitiveScouter said:

I believe about half of the Scouts we see enter at 10.5 to 11 years old (and their parents) are not really psychologically ready for the shift towards more personal responsibility and less parent involvement.

Over the years I have seen attrition in that age cohort of about a fourth, at most.

If they make it through the first year , their retention rate thereafter is high...over 90%.

 

 

Im not sure what you mean by cohort attrition, but I agree with the rest of your post.

The parents have to be on board to get the scouts pasts the first year, so we have an ASM team up with a TG or PL to work with and educate the parents. The ASM is there to give the scout and parents comfort that an adult is around for support. But, all communication goes through the TG or PL to show the family that the scouts manage and run the program. The ASMs main responsibility is to show outward trust of the youth leadership. All decisions go through the TG or PL. 

And yes, if a scout stays in the troop a year (really after summer camp), than they are likely to stay several years. 
 

Barry

Edited March 19, 2021 by Eagledad

[InquisitiveScouter]

13 minutes ago, Eagledad said:

Im not sure what you mean by cohort attrition, but I agree with the rest of your post.

The parents have to be on board to get the scouts pasts the first year, so we have an ASM team up with a TG or PL to work with and educate the parents. The ASM is there to give the scout and parents comfort that an adult is around for support. But, all communication goes through the TG or PL to show the family that the scouts manage and run the program. The ASMs main responsibility is to show outward trust of the youth leadership. All decisions go through the TG or PL. 

And yes, if a scout stays in the troop a year (really after summer camp), than they are likely to stay several years. 
 

Barry

We are saying the same thing...

By age cohort, I simply mean first year Scouts who are in the age group of 10.5 to 11 years old.

[mashmaster]

1 hour ago, InquisitiveScouter said:

I believe about half of the Scouts we see enter at 10.5 to 11 years old (and their parents) are not really psychologically ready for the shift towards more personal responsibility and less parent involvement.

Over the years I have seen attrition in that age cohort of about a fourth, at most.

If they make it through the first year , their retention rate thereafter is high...over 90%.

 

 

From my experience it really depends on how well the Webelos leaders prepared the scouts and parents for the transition to Boy Scouts.  many seem to run at the cub level which is still very parent led without preparing them to being a hybrid or scout-led and parent-led.  For example, Webelos should have Webelos only campouts where  they plan the menu and cook it.  But have a parent help really review and help teach them how to menu plan and cook.  The parent should be within ear shot and let them do with a review after each step.  If they do this a few times, the scouts will figure it out.  The parents too will learn to step back.

I have seen plenty of 1st year scouts that can't boil water and setup a tent.  And others that are rock stars at both.  The unprepared scouts are frustrated compared to to the confident scouts.

[Eagledad]

58 minutes ago, InquisitiveScouter said:

We are saying the same thing...

By age cohort, I simply mean first year Scouts who are in the age group of 10.5 to 11 years old.

I finally realized you were saying about a forth of new scouts dropped out. That is probably about right, but I found first year drop outs almost impossible to track. As someone mentioned in a earlier post, many scouts sign up, but never show up. I like to place them in the catagory of scouts who quit after cubs. That is important for watching the performance of cub packs.

The obstacle of tracking scouts is the independence of districts re-signing their membership. And units add more confusion by their own independent definition of active scouts. I found the only accurate way to track scouts after leaving cubs was to contact them personally. And few districts have that manpower.

So, it’s a hard number to track. But we do know around 50% of graduating Webelos actively joins a troop. And we do know about 1/4 to 1/3 of those scouts drop out in the first year.

I’ve known these numbers for over 25 years. The pack drop out numbers used to make me mad. Think about how many boys in that 50% drop out range would be in troops if we could raise that number by just 25%. And we are just talking about 2nd year Webelos. Tigers has a huge dropout rate of over 50%. Bears and 1st year Webelos is significant as well. Except for Tigers, I attribute most of those drop outs to adult leader burn out. 
 

Barry

[5thGenTexan]

My now Webelos Scout probably will not do well that first year in a Troop.  Unless something major happens in the next year he wont be ready psychologically.  He is the kind of kid that still wants to cuddle with us on the couch, or even occasionally wants one of us to lie down with him to go to sleep.  Sending him out to camp in the dark with no parents will make the boy's cheese slide off his cracker I fear.

[NDW5332]

3 hours ago, InquisitiveScouter said:

I believe about half of the Scouts we see enter at 10.5 to 11 years old (and their parents) are not really psychologically ready for the shift towards more personal responsibility and less parent involvement.

I think this is a very good reason for some Scouts not sticking around.  My wife is an educator and she's always commenting about some of the rank and Merit Badge requirements and that there are a lot that are not developmentally appropriate for kids under a certain age.

On the other hand, I took on the role of Advancement Chair for our Troop and I get a lot of comments from parents of Scouts that drop that gives the impression that they were expecting Webelos 3.

Parent: "Whaddaya mean my son doesn't get things signed off? He was there!"

Me: "Well, we've said since he started that he could talk to any of our leadership (Scoutmaster, ASM, Troop Guides, SPL, ASPL's) at any time and ask, then demonstrate that he learned from XYZ.  It's not automatic."

One of the more decorated older boys from when my son was in Cub Scouts (he went through three brag vests and looked like a NASCAR driver with so many patches, pins, and belt loops) was at the same Troop we chose to go to. He quit shortly after my son crossed over, complaining about how much work it was to earn Merit Badges and do rank requirements.

[mrjohns2]

57 minutes ago, NDW5332 said:

I think this is a very good reason for some Scouts not sticking around.  My wife is an educator and she's always commenting about some of the rank and Merit Badge requirements and that there are a lot that are not developmentally appropriate for kids under a certain age.

My understanding is that they are written at the 8th grade level. So, for some it would be harder than others. It really is up to the troop to make sure that it isn't too advancement oriented.

[qwazse]

We have our current SM because back when his first two boys aged out and his third was in cubs, Son #3 begged to quit the pack. I encouraged the dad, "Let him.  Go have fun with him. He wants to play all of those massive board games you've built!" (The figures on the guy's game pieces are astounding.) A few years later, a 12-ish year-old boy shows up at a troop meeting, and his interest in scouting has grown and grown. It's been a couple years and he's still working on 1st class and having fun ... in spite of his dad being the big cheese!

There are new opportunities to recruit teens who haven't been cubs. It just take a little code-cracking.

[yknot]

1 hour ago, NDW5332 said:

I think this is a very good reason for some Scouts not sticking around.  My wife is an educator and she's always commenting about some of the rank and Merit Badge requirements and that there are a lot that are not developmentally appropriate for kids under a certain age.

This is a problem from cubs on up. Parts of the program are not developmentally appropriate. It can also be boring and repetitive. One of my fears is that if anything of BSA survives bankruptcy it will still trot along without really addressing some of the root reasons why kids today find it less appealing. For starters, it needs to be less homework like and more outdoors focused.