National releases membership numbers. All programs down 40-48%

[CynicalScouter]

There are also regional breakdowns

http://filestore.scouting.org/filestore/commissioner/newsletter/2021_winter/KPI_NatlRegion.pdf

Edited March 1, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[ALongWalk]

Wow....just wow. National will never be as it was up until last year.  I know you guys know that but wow...

Also, Councils that are in a lot of debt are not going to make it. 

[CynicalScouter]

1 minute ago, ALongWalk said:

Wow....just wow. National will never be as it was up until last year.  I know you guys know that but wow...

Also, Councils that are in a lot of debt are not going to make it. 

Yep. Look at the financials. Also look at the staff layoffs ("Youth-Serving Executives") down 25%. Yeah, yeah I know people hate the professionals, but keep in mind they are still humans who got laid off.

New members only 104k.

[elitts]

To be honest, I'm surprised the number of Cub Scouts retained was that high.  SO many of the packs in my area just kind of suspended operations till Covid is done.  I think most of them will come back, but I'm sure they'll be at reduced numbers.

[qwazse]

Thanks @CynicalScouter. The retention of units makes it quite clear that LDS,  folks with a restrictive sexual ethic, and litigation have become a perfect storm.

Nothing against pros. They are in an impossible situation ... trying to sell registration at a higher cost than many parents/scouts are willing to pay ... and trying to do it without handshakes in-person. Many CO's are on the brink of collapse.

If we've hit bottom, we might see some rebound post-pandemic. But I think that won't happen until '22, based on when vaccine will be rolled out to kids.

[skeptic]

15 minutes ago, qwazse said:

Thanks @CynicalScouter. The retention of units makes it quite clear that LDS,  folks with a restrictive sexual ethic, and litigation have become a perfect storm.

Nothing against pros. They are in an impossible situation ... trying to sell registration at a higher cost than many parents/scouts are willing to pay ... and trying to do it without handshakes in-person. Many CO's are on the brink of collapse.

If we've hit bottom, we might see some rebound post-pandemic. But I think that won't happen until '22, based on when vaccine will be rolled out to kids.

I could see the newest, one dose version, being offered to kids due to its slightly lower efficacy, and that younger people are less in danger as a group.  As far as the membership goes, if we can at least stabilize by year end we will be ahead going forward.

 

[CynicalScouter]

3 minutes ago, qwazse said:

If we've hit bottom, we might see some rebound post-pandemic.

Pure anecdote so take this with a ton of salt. I've stayed in touch with my old pack. Lost 30% of scouts at recharter BUT all said "we'll be back when the pandemic is over". So, yeah, still bad if 30% walked out but only 20% or 10% come back. The longer this goes on, the less likely to come back.

Of course 2021 has everything going for a BSA rebound. Kids and parents want to get out. The bankruptcy should end. Scouts will come back to their units, etc.

[yknot]

9 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Pure anecdote so take this with a ton of salt. I've stayed in touch with my old pack. Lost 30% of scouts at recharter BUT all said "we'll be back when the pandemic is over". So, yeah, still bad if 30% walked out but only 20% or 10% come back. The longer this goes on, the less likely to come back.

Of course 2021 has everything going for a BSA rebound. Kids and parents want to get out. The bankruptcy should end. Scouts will come back to their units, etc.

Cynical Scouter, can you clarify something for me? Are these retroactive results, meaning that they reflect the loss of the LDS units last year, or are they a current snapshot of who reregistered in December? Are these current numbers? Thanks. 

[CynicalScouter]

5 minutes ago, yknot said:

Cynical Scouter, can you clarify something for me? Are these retroactive results, meaning that they reflect the loss of the LDS units last year, or are they a current snapshot of who reregistered in December? Are these current numbers? Thanks. 

What you see is what National put out in January 2021 the December 2020 numbers. They are thus "current". You can also see what the numbers were for the 2 prior years (2018 and 2019)

Edited March 1, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[yknot]

Just now, CynicalScouter said:

What you see is what National put out in January and are thus "current". You can also see what the numbers were for the 2 prior years (2018 and 2019)

Thanks. I thought that but wanted to check because I've always been a little fuzzy on how BSA tracks membership.  I had the 1.2 million in my head all year for some reason, so I was worried membership as of today would be worse. I thought we'd be down to 800K due to Covid but it's apparently not that low. So kind of good news to me...

[qwazse]

1 hour ago, skeptic said:

I could see the newest, one dose version, being offered to kids due to its slightly lower efficacy, and that younger people are less in danger as a group.  As far as the membership goes, if we can at least stabilize by year end we will be ahead going forward.

@skeptic, Fauci was on NPR 1A this morning saying that he wouldn't expect a roll-out to elementary age kids until sometime next year. (That's not to say one shouldn't vaccinate a child with asthma or other serious condition.)

The fact that youth are at the least risk is a reason to hold off on the vaccine until side effect data are in from everyone under the emergency use authorization (EUA). The current vaccines have had about 1000 claims of deaths after administration to 40,000,000. That's way better then the lethality of the virus in adults, but it's not better than how infected kids have fared under natural exposure. Arguably, most -- if not all -- of those claims may not be valid upon autopsy. But the EUA for all three vaccines were based on trials of adults, so the side effect profiles are concerning enough that the pediatric trials will start and proceed with caution.

Also, FWIW, the margin of error (confidence interval) on the single dose's 85% efficacy against severe illness or death ranges from 54% to 97%, and there was enough variability among trial designs that one shouldn't say that the efficacy is "slightly lower" than the mRNA vaccines. All three vaccines are performing quite well against placebo's. We don't think one is performing much better than the other.

So, expect to have a tough time recruiting in communities with pandemic-addled parents whose kids are not going to get vaccinated for a while.

Edited March 1, 2021 by qwazse

[Jameson76]

Not good update on the BSA Membership numbers

Edited March 5, 2021 by Jameson76

[CynicalScouter]

2 hours ago, Jameson76 said:

Not good update on the BSA Membership numbers

And this was just 2020 (first year of major LDS impact)

2021 charter year data (units rechartering in late fall 2020 to December 2020) is going to reflect the COVID hits and be a disaster.

I'm betting Cubs go below 1 million.

[Eagle1993]

Well, it should be easier to get our desired Treks at Philmont going forward.... assuming we still own it. 

[Jameson76]

8 hours ago, CynicalScouter said:

And this was just 2020 (first year of major LDS impact)

2021 charter year data (units rechartering in late fall 2020 to December 2020) is going to reflect the COVID hits and be a disaster.

I'm betting Cubs go below 1 million.

Cubs were at 649,284 for 2020

I'm sadly thinking overall BSA will be under 1 million