Re-chartering Projections

[gpurlee]

What changes in youth membership are anticipated in your area as we enter 2021?

In our midwestern council, based upon discussions with unit and council volunteers as well as professional staff, it appears that we may be looking at:

(1) A 75% or greater loss in Cub membership. A disturbing number of units are having difficulty getting minimal numbers necessary to re-charter without a waiver. 

(2) 20% loss in Boy Scout troop membership

(3) Perhaps a 5% to 10% loss in chartered organizations. 

Our council is re-chartering this month. The major factor in the anticipated losses has been the pandemic and the difficulty in recruitment and the challenge for Cub Packs to meet. 

The loss in places to safely meet this winter has been very significant. It appears that at least half of our chartered organizations have essentially closed their facility.  

 

[mrjohns2]

56 minutes ago, gpurlee said:

(2) 20% loss in Boy Scout troop membership

Well, a 100% loss in Boy Scout troop membership. Maybe a 20% loss in Scouts BSA troop membership.

Your numbers seem to be consistent with our midwest Pack and Troop. The Pack will have a hard time with very light dens that may have to meet together to reach critical mass. For example, right now, there is only one active first year Weblos out of 8. She will start to meet with the second year Webelos next month. 

[yknot]

Troop seems down maybe 10 to 20% but Pack is decimated. 

[TMSM]

Our troop increased 10% in the last 6 months but we expect to only get half the number of Webelos we usually get. Packs are way down for now but without the ability to meet that is expected.  The pandemic will be over soon enough and every needs to have a plan on how to regain those lost boys who have missed out on joining scouts.

[David CO]

46 minutes ago, TMSM said:

The pandemic will be over soon enough 

Not soon enough for me.  All of this isolating stuff is driving me batty.  

[qwazse]

2 hours ago, David CO said:

Not soon enough for me.  All of this isolating stuff is driving me batty.  

Feeling your pain on multiple levels.

But, we turned our charter in on schedule. Four of our five crossovers stuck with us, I think four aged out, so we’re even. The webelos know we’re active, and some are looking forward to camping with us sometime soon. I hope that can happen. Worst case, they cross with no AOL 

I don’t have a pulse in the district. I pretty much have no more on he tank for teleconferencing.

[5thGenTexan]

I have 46 Scouts on our Pack roster.  12 are not returning.  Some of those just never showed up after Join Scout Night, and that kind of thing is not abnormal.  We picked up a new Scout that I will take the app in when Jan comes.  

I am not unhappy with that.

I dont know how anyone else is doing because I am not talking to any other leaders in the district or any RT any more.

[Eagle1993]

Our Troop is down the past two years; however, I think part of that is losing low/no attendance scouts from our roster.  In the past, our Troop meeting attendance was around 40 - 50%.  Yesterday it was well over 80%.  We used to have some 1 campout only scouts … they are dropping.  So, I'm not too concerned with Covid impacts on our Troop, we have been able to manage and I see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The pack is a disaster.  We are still going through recharter, but I expect we will end up down 75%.  I just talked with a den leader who is dropping.  Eagle scout, energized but has no desire to lead a den during Covid.  He said he will return with his son after Covid.  I think what attracts scouts to Cub Scouts is getting together, in person, working on fun projects, going on hikes & overnights, pinewood derby, etc.  Advancement provides minimal to no motivation.  Our school is hybrid, so kids get a ton of zoom meetings and have no desire for more.

I told my DE that my goal is simply unit survival at this time (at the pack level).  As long as we have enough leaders to get to next fall, we will recruit heavy and I expect within 1 - 2 years or so we will recover.  I do think this will damage the Troop over a few years … but both Troop & Pack are large enough to survive. 

[FaithfulScouter]

We lost 10 Scouts at the Troop level - 25% of membership.  The Troop is heavy on the older boys, 8 of whom are either working on their Eagle project (or very close to it) or we would have lost more.

[InquisitiveScouter]

We did not re-register 13 out of our 51 Scouts.  So, overall ~25%, but, broken down, we are about a normal year...

Five of the 13 "aged-out"; six of the 13 were "chronic inactives"...those just not interested in Scouts anymore; one of the 13 was disciplinary (we will not re-register him due to behavior), and the last was due to COVID (family has significant health challenges).

So, I look at it as six "eligibles" lost out of 44 "eligibles", or  ~14% attrition.  We are usually around 10% per year...

We have not had any Webelos declare intent to join our Troop yet.  Those notices don't start coming until mid to late January.

[Protoclete]

We are looking at a 20% loss of units in the district. Mostly Cub Packs, not rechartering.

Zero membership growth across the board. We usually turn over about 30% of members every year anyway, mostly due to moving, but between last year and this we had the outgoing numbers without the influx to balance. 

2020 has had a much more significant impact than the loss of LDS units or controversy over adding girls.