Contagion and National Preparedness

[qwazse]

As @sentinal suggested a spin-off ...

13 minutes ago, Sentinel947 said:

This could be spun off into a delightful issues and politics thread. This virus has been a multi national failure of multiple governments and health agencies, trickling down to local leadership being unprepared or in denial. 

If it were not for President Bush taking seriously the culmination of research at the time on the Spanish flu (https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/pandemicflu/) we would have been as unprepared as Iran and Italy (or those two cops in Wuhan who thought a Christian doctor was spouting off some apocalyptic fantasy).

Everyone who has posted on this theme on this forum has been knowledgeable from the get-go. That's because the educational component of his and Clinton's programs remained in full force. Precious little that you've heard hasn't already been prepared years in advance. Even, my anti-vax associates build their straw-men out of the material made available by funding from past administration. Trust me, some of my smartest friends were plain stupid about this stuff in the 80's. They could program a computer virus like nobody's business, but they had no clue how that applied to them and their snot-nosed family members.

Could supply chain have been managed better? Yes. Considering American ingenuity, our ability to re-direct our workforce is constantly undervalued. My nephew has been screaming for days that his company's 3-D printers are ready to make good on any essential parts contract that comes their way. It disturbs me that Son #1's company didn't instantly pivot to cutting and stamping stainless steel N95's (chain mail anyone?), or to producing shipping containers for companies who were waiting for them to float over here from the other side of the Pacific.

But, this is also partly because nobody took our annual flu losses seriously. The working assumption was that we could roll along and >50K flu deaths per year would be acceptable. Folks who highlighted the failures of consecutive seasons of unsatisfactory mortality. Readiness stockpiles should have been loud talking points in every gubernatorial race. We all needed masks, maybe more than flu-shots!

As always, why bring this stuff up here? Well, in a few months, Lord willing, you'll be around the campfire with your scouts, and this will require a heap of after action review.

 

[Sentinel947]

2 hours ago, qwazse said:

As @sentinal suggested a spin-off ...

If it were not for President Bush taking seriously the culmination of research at the time on the Spanish flu (https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/pandemicflu/) we would have been as unprepared as Iran and Italy (or those two cops in Wuhan who thought a Christian doctor was spouting off some apocalyptic fantasy).

Everyone who has posted on this theme on this forum has been knowledgeable from the get-go. That's because the educational component of his and Clinton's programs remained in full force. Precious little that you've heard hasn't already been prepared years in advance. Even, my anti-vax associates build their straw-men out of the material made available by funding from past administration. Trust me, some of my smartest friends were plain stupid about this stuff in the 80's. They could program a computer virus like nobody's business, but they had no clue how that applied to them and their snot-nosed family members.

Could supply chain have been managed better? Yes. Considering American ingenuity, our ability to re-direct our workforce is constantly undervalued. My nephew has been screaming for days that his company's 3-D printers are ready to make good on any essential parts contract that comes their way. It disturbs me that Son #1's company didn't instantly pivot to cutting and stamping stainless steel N95's (chain mail anyone?), or to producing shipping containers for companies who were waiting for them to float over here from the other side of the Pacific.

But, this is also partly because nobody took our annual flu losses seriously. The working assumption was that we could roll along and >50K flu deaths per year would be acceptable. Folks who highlighted the failures of consecutive seasons of unsatisfactory mortality. Readiness stockpiles should have been loud talking points in every gubernatorial race. We all needed masks, maybe more than flu-shots!

As always, why bring this stuff up here? Well, in a few months, Lord willing, you'll be around the campfire with your scouts, and this will require a heap of after action review.

 

Agreed about Bush II. He took it seriously. Obama had done some good work continue what Bush II had done. 

First place I'd point the finger at was the Chinese Communist Party. They have absolutely minimized their reporting, and probably falsified their numbers. They never let a good crisis go to waste. Notice nobody is talking about Hong Kong protests or the Uighers in concentration camps anymore. 

Western Countries and most citizens weren't taking the virus very seriously in January or early February. US Military intelligence knew there were issues in China in NOVEMBER... There doesn't seem to be much effort on the part of State or Federal officials or agencies to acquire PPE and supplies until the virus was already here. The Trump Administration acted like it couldn't come here, and when he wanted to take reasonable steps like stopping flights from China, the Democrats said no. There is still no national stay at home order, so states like mine (Ohio) are locking down, we aren't building much immunity, and we can't go out of lock down until other states follow our lead, otherwise a traveler is just going to bring it here and we'll restart the surge process.  

Many governors/mayors deserve blame too. They saw what was happening in Wuhan or Seoul and even when there were known cases in their cities and states, they didn't take action. In Italy and France, you had Prime Ministers telling the public to continue on with their lives. Many Mayors, include NYC's de Blasio, as late as March 11th, was telling people to go live their lives. Even know Trump is spending more time listening to his idiot talking heads on the TV and radio than medical professionals. 

I'll cut people some slack, for not being prepared back in December or January, because this is an unprecedented situation, but at the very least the Federal Government should have been better prepared, especially when Bush II's administration had created a plan, and US Army Intelligence had been sending warnings to Congress and the Executive branch since November. 

With a bit more planning, we could have had an outcome more like South Korea's. Instead, we've got a long way to go. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Sentinel947

[desertrat77]

Great discussion!

While there are seams in federal and state response, the most glaring shortfall I see is the lack of preparedness at the local level--county health departments and local hospitals.

There was nothing preventing hospitals--particularly big ones in highly populated urban areas--from stocking up on PPE and other equipment ("be prepared").  However, rainy day/contingency stock piles do not impress the bean counters that run health care today.   Just in time inventory, who needs all of that dead stock lying around, wing and a prayer, nothing bad is going to happen to us...and if it does, the governor or president will send us what we need.  Maybe, maybe not.

Counties usually operate on a shoe string budget, but the health departments should be more robust in terms of planning, personnel and equipment.

I believe contingency planning and preparedness, like charity, begins "at home."

Speaking of home, it's time to start bring manufacturing back to the US, particularly those products of strategic level importance.  It boggles the mind how vulnerable we've become, putting much of our country's manufacturing capability in the hands of a Communist government.  

I like @qwazse's idea of an after-action camp fire.  We're going to need it, especially for the camaraderie, but also for getting ready for the next "bug."  Because this won't be the last virus that comes our way.  There will be more.  In the future, we'll have to be quicker, smarter, better equipped.  Solid play book, more buy-in and less finger pointing and political hay-making.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by desertrat77

[qwazse]

On 4/9/2020 at 5:24 PM, Sentinel947 said:

... First place I'd point the finger at was the Chinese Communist Party. They have absolutely minimized their reporting, and probably falsified their numbers. They never let a good crisis go to waste. Notice nobody is talking about Hong Kong protests or the Uighers in concentration camps anymore.  ...

I don't think any obfuscation was planned on the part of the PRC. They are quite comfortable with folks fuming over their reeducation initiatives.

But, they are paying for the prejudices they've inculcated. Two police officers were taught to be so afraid of the apocalyptic fantasies of Christians that they muzzled a doctor wanting to tell the world that his patients were suffering and dying from novel contagion.

Some folks want to play a rhetoric game naming the virus after its country of origin. I'd like the name of those two police officers so we could name this bug after them.

[yknot]

Here's something that would be really useful as we do post mortems on our current national experience: 

https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/index.html

This initiative is at least ten years old and apart from all the practical ramp up capabilities we need in order to address possible pandemics, it also would create greater common sense surveillance and comparative medicine measures to put in place to help prevent the next zoonotic breakout.

At the most basic level, it would also help educate people about every day risks from many poorly understood zoonotic diseases like rabies or tick borne infections. We often rely on advice from the human medical establishment and pediatricians but the reality is that they are flying blind and the real experts are in the veterinary medical field and there is no good mechanism to share information.

It is very frustrating to me that as a outdoors oriented (supposedly) organization BSA has practically nil useful information regarding rabies and tick or other vector borne diseases. We should have a compendium of information and resources available. The idea that we send kids out on wilderness survival outings at the height of tick season -- asking kids to make shelters out of leaf litter and other woodland detritus where ticks love to live -- is mind boggling to me. That should be a cold season activity only. 

[Eagle94-A1]

13 hours ago, qwazse said:

Some folks want to play a rhetoric game naming the virus after its country of origin. I'd like the name of those two police officers so we could name this bug after them.

Regarding virus/disease naming protocols, up until May 8, 2015, the use of countries and/or geographical regions, as well as animals and people's names were the norm.  As all of you know, it takes time for populations to get use to new terms. best example of that would be Venture Crews and Venture Scouts for Venturing Crews and Venturers, after 22 years of the former terms were discounted.

 

So naming the disease after the 2 cops is also prohibited by the WHO. https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/

 

 

[yknot]

Yup, that's how we wound up with Coxsakie virus among other odd names.

[qwazse]

1 hour ago, Eagle94-A1 said:

... So naming the disease after the 2 cops is also prohibited by the WHO. https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/ ...

I was musing over rhetorical device -- not the International Classification of Diseases ... for which COVID-19 is a very handy term. People are going to nickname diseases whatever makes their point. I'm just suggesting one way to do this.

12 hours ago, yknot said:

Here's something that would be really useful as we do post mortems on our current national experience: 

https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/index.html

This initiative is at least ten years old and apart from all the practical ramp up capabilities we need in order to address possible pandemics, it also would create greater common sense surveillance and comparative medicine measures to put in place to help prevent the next zoonotic breakout.

... It is very frustrating to me that as a outdoors oriented (supposedly) organization BSA has practically nil useful information regarding rabies and tick or other vector borne diseases. ...

Other scout associations worldwide are definitely better at education regarding zoonotic disease. Still, I learned about most diseases at scout camp. That included polio ... I remember my SM giving us a minute on the Salk vaccine. He told us of a childhood wondering who would be next to be put on an iron lung.

[Kudu]

 

[Sentinel947]

On 4/10/2020 at 9:04 PM, qwazse said:

I don't think any obfuscation was planned on the part of the PRC. They are quite comfortable with folks fuming over their reeducation initiatives.

But, they are paying for the prejudices they've inculcated. Two police officers were taught to be so afraid of the apocalyptic fantasies of Christians that they muzzled a doctor wanting to tell the world that his patients were suffering and dying from novel contagion.

Some folks want to play a rhetoric game naming the virus after its country of origin. I'd like the name of those two police officers so we could name this bug after them.

I disagree, the PRC is absolutely fudging their numbers of infections and deaths.