Chapter 11 announced

[CynicalScouter]

Transcript will not be available until June as Doc. 2407

Why do you ask? Stenographer gets paid. Sending around free copies to all parties and lawyers means $0. So standard practice for courts is for either a) NO free transcripts EVER or b) time delayed.

 

Quote

Transcript regarding Hearing Held 3/17/2021 RE: Omnibus. Remote electronic access to the transcript is restricted until 6/16/2021. The transcript may be viewed at the Bankruptcy Court Clerk's Office. For information about how to obtain a transcript, call the Clerk's Office or Contact the Court Reporter/Transcriber, Reliable, at Telephone number (302)654-8080. Notice of Intent to Request Redaction Deadline Due By 3/25/2021. Redaction Request Due By 4/8/2021. Redacted Transcript Submission Due By 4/19/2021. Transcript access will be restricted through 6/16/2021.

 

Edited March 19, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[MattR]

32 minutes ago, RememberSchiff said:

Thank you both for schooling me on "estimation trial".

 

I don't know, your estimate makes as much sense as any other. Everyone was surprised by the number of claiments and I mean everyone. It is nearly 2 orders of magnitude greater than any other case. Given that and the fact that the bsa can make a case that it has been trying to reduce incidents, how is It that the bsa was negligent to the same level found in these other cases? They weren't moving scoutmasters around like the diocese were moving priests. In the MSU case reports of abuse were ignored. Given that nobody had any idea how many bsa cases there were, nobody was being ignored.

The negligence isn't as clear to me. I have no idea what the number should be and maybe looking at the value of the bsa is not right but that's exactly what everyone is using. 

[DavidLeeLambert]

And speaking of Statue of Limitations windows...

"HARRISBURG — Prospects are dimming in the legislature to employ a rarely used, emergency tactic so voters can decide this spring whether survivors of decades-old sexual abuse should have a chance to sue the perpetrators and institutions that covered up the crimes.

The state House of Representatives left the Capitol on Wednesday without a final vote on a measure that would have resurrected the hard-fought referendum on whether to give those survivors, who are time-barred under the statute of limitations, a two-year reprieve to pursue civil litigation."

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2021/03/18/Pennsylvania-clergy-sex-abuse-hopes-dim-lawmakers-will-push-emergency-relief-legislation-victims/stories/202103180161

The referendum would have been on the May 2021 statewide ballot, except that the "top elections official" (Secretary Kathy Boockvar) neglected to publish a notice in statewide newspapers during the required time before the election. Some of the legislators who are opposing the "emergency tactic" are saying, in effect, that, since these claims are already barred, it doesn't matter whether the window is opened for them now or a couple years down the road.

The TCC summary says that there are 3,053 Survivor Claims in the BSA case related to Pennsylvania.

[ThenNow]

1 hour ago, MattR said:

Given that and the fact that the bsa can make a case that it has been trying to reduce incidents, how is It that the bsa was negligent to the same level found in these other cases? They weren't moving scoutmasters around like the diocese were moving priests. In the MSU case reports of abuse were ignored. Given that nobody had any idea how many bsa cases there were, nobody was being ignored.

The negligence isn't as clear to me

1) In the MN case where the BSA’s own expert was “forced” to reveal the internal data she discovered, the number of perpetrators was 7800+ and known/identified victims 12,000+. This was not revealed until she was made to do it under oath. Looked mucho bad;

2) Pedophile predation studies indication the 1 perp x 100 victims over the course of their active predation x 7,800 = a huge number, as in 780,000. Not all could be said or alleged to have been Scouts but, again, terrible implications and optics;

3) To my knowledge, no follow up investigation or inquiry was done after that in court revelation;

4) As seen in the TCC’s Analysis of Claims, 11,000+ have occurred, based on the filings without further investigation or discovery, since YPT. As CynicalSouter has illustrated - though strongly rebutted by another - statistical analysis at least arguably shows a “correlation,” not necessarily causation, between enrollment decline and the reduction in incidents post YPT. Not definitive, but worthy of analysis and more bad optics;

5) Men, on average discover and/or disclose and/or emerge from a latency period of denial in their 30’s, lending further credence to sizable batch of future claims hanging out there;

6) The case had a mandatory Bar Date of November 16, 2020. What if that period was 1 year or more; and

7) BSA has been paying on cases for years, one as high as $19M and change, evidencing the high value “at trial” of even a small number of claims. We are beyond the point of questioning the basis/presence of negligence and liability. We are where we are. Estimation will allow for argument about value, but not arguing negligence or baseline liability, in my view.

Edited March 19, 2021 by ThenNow
Oops. MN is close to Canada, eh? And bad math...

[yknot]

22 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

1) In the Canadian case where the BSA’s own expert was “forced” to reveal the internal data she discovered, the number of perpetrators was 7000+ and known/identified victims 12,000+. This was not revealed until she was made to do it under oath. Looked mucho bad;

2) Pedophile predation studies indication the 1 perp x 100 victims over the course of their active predation x 7,000 = a huge number, as in 700,000. Not all could be said or alleged to have been Scouts but, again, terrible implications and optics;

3) To my knowledge, no follow up investigation or inquiry was done after that in court revelation;

4) As seen in the TCC’s Analysis of Claims, 11,000+ have occurred, based on the filings without further investigation or discovery, since YPT. As CynicalSouter has illustrated - though strongly rebutted by another - statistical analysis at least arguably shows a “correlation,” not necessarily causation, between enrollment decline and the reduction in incidents post YPT. Not definitive, but worthy of analysis and more bad optics;

5) Men, on average discover and/or disclose and/or emerge from a latency period of denial in their 30’s, lending further credence to patch of future claims hanging out there;

6) The case had a mandatory Bar Date of November 16, 2020. What if that period was 1 year or more; and

7) BSA has been paying on cases for years, one as high as $19M and change, evidencing the high value “at trial” of even a small number of claims. We are beyond the point of questioning the basis/presence of negligence and liability. We are where we are. Estimation will allow for argument about value, but not arguing negligence or baseline liability, in my view.

To this laundry list of culpability I would add all the behind the scenes dirty laundry that has been aired here by scouters actively involved in the program but not widely known by outside critics: less than 100% YPT training rates; scouters who view YPT as a nuisance and flaunt it;; scouters who dislike parental involvement and sometimes even actively discourage it; lack of any real oversight by BSA and lack of attention to the dysfunctional CO structure; lack of clarity about YP policies; the volunteer manpower crisis that sometimes leads units to keep questionable people in scouting roles; nonexistent background checks -- the list could go on. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by yknot

[CynicalScouter]

8 minutes ago, yknot said:

less than 100% YPT training rates...lack of clarity about YP policies

This is what blows my mind (not really)

Until 2020 and the bankruptcy, by BSA's own admission, direct contact leaders were NOT all YPT trained. They only hit 99.9% in 2020.

As recently as 2018 that number was only 67.1%.

As for the clarity, I can point to three different items right now on the BSA website regarding two-deep leadership that directly contradict each other, especially in the area of virtual activities, whether or not merit badge counselors are/are not "registered adult leaders" for purposes of two-deep, etc.

And when you ask you are either given multiple contradictory answers or ignored.

Edited March 19, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[InquisitiveScouter]

2 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

This is what blows my mind (not really)

Until 2020 and the bankruptcy, by BSA's own admission, direct contact leaders were NOT all YPT trained. They only hit 99.9% in 2020.

As recently as 2018 that number was only 67.1%.

Membership and money over all else...

[ThenNow]

Scout.org says 500M Scouts of some kind since inception. Is that the generally accepted number? 

[CynicalScouter]

3 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Scout.org says 500M Scouts of some kind since inception. Is that the generally accepted number? 

Globally? Or US? If it was Global, I'd say yeah sure that might even be low. With the U.S.? Gosh, I don't know. I mean maybe?

EDIT: Has to be global. I looked at all annual data for the U.S. since the start. Even if you assume a BRAND NEW SET OF SCOUTS EVERY YEAR since 1911, you only get to 270 million.

Edited March 19, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[ThenNow]

Just now, CynicalScouter said:

Globally? Or US? If it was Global, I'd say yeah sure that might even be low. With the U.S.? Gosh, I don't know. I mean maybe?

Surprise. I skimmed. That’s globally and qualified with “at least.” 

[ThenNow]

Just now, ThenNow said:

Surprise. I skimmed. That’s globally and qualified with “at least.” 

Regardless, is the abuse universal? Any data? Don’t worry. I’m not looking to export a team of miners and aggregators to the four corners and I was never involved in international Scouting.

[CynicalScouter]

14 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Regardless, is the abuse universal? Any data? Don’t worry. I’m not looking to export a team of miners and aggregators to the four corners and I was never involved in international Scouting.

Who knows? Same thing with the Catholic Church: the only way to find out is if

1) Those organizations kept a paper trail (as BSA did and Catholic Dioceses in the U.S.)

2) Lawsuits that find abuse cases and/or that paper trail from #1

3) Criminal investigations that find abuse cases and/or that paper trail from #1

4) Government hearings with subpoena or equivalent power (I'm thinking of the 2009 Irish commission on this subject regarding the Catholic Church, although that was criticized as a whitewash by some).

Edited March 19, 2021 by CynicalScouter

[vol_scouter]

The BSA has stated ~130 M individuals have been Scouts since the founding in 1910.

The only number that we have are the claimants now as there were few cases before recent years so that number is low.  Also, the BSA number is likely not accurate but should be close to correct.  So for ~100,000 claimants out of 130,000,000 participants, the ratio is 0.000769 or ~0.08 %.  While no level if abuse is acceptable, one must realize that the BSA has served many youth and that the prevalence of reported abuse is very small.  

[ThenNow]

27 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Who knows?

One reason I asked is borne out of my interest in culture and sociology. I haven’t done any study, but we became quite the “drop off and go” parenting culture in the 50’s and it accelerated. The helicopter parenting and college resume building era reduced some of that, for good or ill. If that is the case, our level and frequency of entrusting our kids, as opposed to many cultures where parents are typically and highly engaged with their children, would logically create more opportunity for abuse in the US. Does that make sense?

If I were to hazard an “I wonder,” I think our culture of, “you can teach them something (and do a bloody good jon or else) while I do something else,” productive or not, is a contributing factor. It definitely exacerbates the issue with gaps in the volunteer base, which in turn made/makes scrutinizing applicants more burdensome, etc. I’d like to see a study.

Is it still a drop off and go deal? I went to quite literally every one of our oldest son’s events and coached. I did as many as I possibly could with our youngest, though at boarding school five hours always. I knew his teachers, advisors and coaches well. I put on over 40,000 miles in that four year period. My dad went to nothing. I wasn’t going to let that happen. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by ThenNow

[ThenNow]

18 minutes ago, vol_scouter said:

the BSA has served many youth and that the prevalence of reported abuse is very small.  

Yup. Many here have reported that. My ability to connect with that experience is difficult, since my Troop was completely awash in booze, pornography, filthy language and, obviously, sexual abuse. Before I got out, even the last in the list was getting to be out in the open, public type behavior. It was played off as manly crudity and displays of virulence.