10,000 Girl Cub Scouts

[Eagle1993]

BSA just past the 10,000 mark for girls in Cub Scouts with nearly 4,000 Webelos.  It will be interesting to see these numbers after fall recruiting when most Packs add new members.  Will update if I see more numbers in October.  That will be the interesting one.

[ParkMan]

Must be 9,995 of the outside my district.

Of course, that's 200 per state - so maybe that matches what I'm seeing.

[qwazse]

Someone can go through the trouble of finding my quotes from a couple years ago, but I posited that 10K girls would be a sufficiently critical mass for BSA to open up its program to girls.

[Bowline]

I wonder how they are measuring that without the formal fall registration.  I know of a number of units that will gain up tp 6 girls just by siblings joining and more with friends and fall recruiting.  Overs this is great news. 

[shortridge]

That means nearly half will be leaving Cubs in the next two years and expecting to transition to a Scouts BSA troop. We’ve got to have the infrastructure ready, or they’re going to vanish.

[qwazse]

2 hours ago, Bowline said:

I wonder how they are measuring that without the formal fall registration.  I know of a number of units that will gain up tp 6 girls just by siblings joining and more with friends and fall recruiting.  Overs this is great news. 

Registrations come in continuously, not just in the fall. This probably the case with Packs whose tag-alongs have been chomping at the bit to be official.

On the flip side, since attrition really is tallied until rechartering, that hasn't been counted, so BSA is playing a little fast-and-loose with the stats.

1 hour ago, shortridge said:

That means nearly half will be leaving Cubs in the next two years and expecting to transition to a Scouts BSA troop. We’ve got to have the infrastructure ready, or they’re going to vanish.

I got a new tent and I don't care who borrows it. How's that for infrastructure?

[ParkMan]

8 hours ago, shortridge said:

That means nearly half will be leaving Cubs in the next two years and expecting to transition to a Scouts BSA troop. We’ve got to have the infrastructure ready, or they’re going to vanish.

From what I hear near me, there will be plenty of troops willing to start paper units for girls.  If anything, I suspect there will be more interested troops than girls.

[Eagle1993]

On 8/17/2018 at 9:35 PM, qwazse said:

Registrations come in continuously, not just in the fall. This probably the case with Packs whose tag-alongs have been chomping at the bit to be official.

On the flip side, since attrition really is tallied until rechartering, that hasn't been counted, so BSA is playing a little fast-and-loose with the stats.

I got a new tent and I don't care who borrows it. How's that for infrastructure?

That is true, but the vast number of packs that I am aware of do major recruiting drives in Aug - Oct.  In addition, very few Packs were early adopters and that group ended with ~7k girls.  

At my District Meeting, most of the Packs decided to include girls.  My pack was the only early adopter in the District.   I would expect the 10k to increase substantially by October.

As far as Troops, I do expect that DEs will be expected to ensure all girls have Scout units to transition to.  They will have to act fast given the age of the girls.  One interesting note from District Meeting was that some of the very anti girl SMs have decided to create linked units.  I talked with one who is a very active scouter and wants to make sure it is done right. 

I agree the true early impact won’t be fully know until recharter.  The 2018 annual report should tell us more.

 

[Eagledad]

The next four years will be interesting to watch. The BSA looses around 50% (give or take) of Scouts crossing over to troops. Actually I believe it’s slightly more with crossovers who join troops but never show up. Those numbers don’t count as dropouts until next rechartering.

Anyway, the main cause of the large drop out is a boring program. But the girls, and parents of the girls, have a different motivation for crossing over. I have said for many years that parents have a lot of say in their kids staying in scouting. More so at the cub ages, but a significant amount at the troop age as well. If you want to keep the youth, build a program that appeals to parents.

We have seen even on this forum a lot of adult energy for girls in the program, so I don’t see a boring program holding them back. 

Eventually the passion and energy of the new program will settle down and balance back to the quality of program content. I’m curious how the numbers will fall. I believe family scouting will change the present troop program a lot. Not so much in written program structure, but more of how the adults will interrupt implementating the program structure. Personally, I believe the troop program will morph closer to a Webelos III. But, if that style of program keeps the parents more energized, then a Webelos III may not be bad when National’s main objective is maintaining BSA numbers. 

We’ll see.(I need a popcorn eating emoji)

Barry

 

 

Edited August 19, 2018 by Eagledad

[DeanRx]

8 hours ago, Eagledad said:

Eventually the passion and energy of the new program will settle down and balance back to the quality of program content. I’m curious how the numbers will fall. I believe family scouting will change the present troop program a lot. Not so much in written program structure, but more of how the adults will interrupt implementating the program structure. Personally, I believe the troop program will morph closer to a Webelos III. But, if that style of program keeps the parents more energized, then a Webelos III may not be bad when National’s main objective is maintaining BSA numbers. 

We’ll see.(I need a popcorn eating emoji)

Barry

 

 

Barry, as a non pro scouter (I don't know if you get paid to wear the tan shirt or not).... this is what concerns a lot of long term volunteers...

BSA4G is not a bad thing.  Especially IF both boys and girls have a CHOICE in what type of unit they participate in.... some will want gender separate, some might want gender mixed.  IMHO, BSA national could have accomplished this in a much more constructive way:

1) Make Jr Venture crews . They were /are already co-ed... just take the program down to the grade school level and let the girls play too.  Change the upper ranks of Venturing to mirror Boy Scouts (Star / Life / Eagle- we already have changed the oath and law to be the same across all platforms).... viola - a path for girls to get Eagle rank without stepping on the toes of traditionalists and those who (rightfully so) claim that boys need a space for just boys.  Problem solved.

2) Family Scouting = YUCK.  We either believe in the program or we do not!  Per Baden Powell and later per Green Bar Bill, Scouting is not, nor should ever be ABOUT THE FAMILY.  The aims of scouting are not to exclude the family, but the ARE supposed to help form boys (youth) into independent men (adults).  We already have HUGE helicopter parenting problems within BSA.... family scouting only encourages this behavior in both adults and youth.

I respectfully submit that your claim of " Personally, I believe the troop program will morph closer to a Webelos III. But, if that style of program keeps the parents more energized, then a Webelos III may not be bad when National’s main objective is maintaining BSA numbers." is EXACTLY at the heart of all that is WRONG with BSA currently.

If we are not teaching selfless service and using the patrol method, then its fitting that the name of the organization is changing too... because we are no longer SCOUTING as it was intended.  If national's goal is to maintain / increase numbers by allowing the troop program to morph into Webelos III, then the BSA is already dead.

Youth (both boys and girls) want LESS intervention by adults in their outdoor activities, not more.  As a parent, I can appreciate appealing to the parents....

But its not supposed to be about the adults wants / needs.... its supposed to be about the youth - or at least at one time it was...

Dean

[Eagledad]

1 hour ago, DeanRx said:

Barry, as a non pro scouter (I don't know if you get paid to wear the tan shirt or not).... this is what concerns a lot of long term volunteers...

BSA4G is not a bad thing.  Especially IF both boys and girls have a CHOICE in what type of unit they participate in.... some will want gender separate, some might want gender mixed.  IMHO, BSA national could have accomplished this in a much more constructive way:

Dean

I’m not a professional. I’m an old time retired scoutmaster with passion for the traditional patrol method program. I’ve been very critical of the recent changes, including admitting gays and transsexuals. Not because I have phobias, I believe I’m more compassionate for these kids. But National is putting volunteers in the position of encouraging behaviors that these youth may regret when they mature into adults.

I don’t believe accepting girls 14 and younger is good for the program because it will take away from the boys at a National level. It doesn’t matter if some troops are totally male, National will have to direct the whole program as mixed genders. 

Girls and boys don’t mix well in a patrol method type program before reaching puberty because boys generally think in the big world picture while girls are very detailed oriented. Patrol method works for boys because they are forced to build habits of working details. Girls, by instinct, won’t let them do that without heavy adult interference. None of that works well in a patrol method program.

But, I’m also pretty good at looking at things pragmatically. What I posted is an honest assessment of what I see coming based from observations of the program and National for the last roughly 50 years. Troops will become adult run after school camping programs and eagle factories.

The addition of girls will bring in more adults without a scouting experience, and those adults typically push advancement the hardest over the other methods. They can’t help themselves; they don’t know how to do the other scouting stuff very well, but they know how to follow a checklist. It’s human nature.

Barry

 

[gblotter]

And how many boys are headed to the exits in reaction to program changes that ignore their needs and opinions?

I predict more boys will be lost than girls gained, for a net loss in overall membership.

[Eagle1993]

4 hours ago, gblotter said:

And how many boys are headed to the exits in reaction to program changes that ignore their needs and opinions?

I predict more boys will be lost than girls gained, for a net loss in overall membership.

Will be hard to measure due to LDS exit.  You’ll have to look at councils with little to no LDS to see real impact.  Note that BSA has been losing boys for 30 years.  The real question is if the rate of loss of boys increases in non LDS councils.  I’m not sure if it will and if that rate of loss increase will exceed the rate of additional girls.

I also wonder, as @Eagledad mentioned,if the girls/parents who initially join now may push through program issues while eventually everything settles back on the actual program performance.  It may take several years to really see the impact of all recent changes (YPT, G2SS, girls, etc).  

[gblotter]

51 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

It may take several years to really see the impact of all recent changes (YPT, G2SS, girls, etc).

Agreed.

Admittedly, individual viewpoints shape our overall vision of future trends. I personally see a large number of Scouts who plan to complete their march to Eagle and then quit BSA altogether. Many folks are in denial about the impacts of co-ed Scouting on existing boy membership. Boys are not stupid and they will easily discern that the program focus has shifted away from them and their needs. BSA can't bully and shame people into staying with labels like "unScoutlike" and "conditional Scouter". Most who leave will walk away in silence rather than loud protest. The "get done and get out" mentality will accelerate next summer when boys are faced with the reality of co-ed BSA summer camps. But you are absolutely correct - only time will tell.

However, we can rely on BSA National leadership to deflect blame and responsibility about the true reasons for any membership losses.

[Eagle94-A1]

Where I am, adult interference under the guise of Family Scouting is already being implemented. Even before "Family Scouting" was announced, some adults were bringing non-Boy Scout children to events. Now that Family Scouting being announced and promoted, those adults are emboldened. Some of you have read my posts about the family with the Second Class Scout sneaking into the parents tent. The troop officially didn't do a camp out this month. 4 families within the troop went whitewater rafting, and just happen to use troop gear and work on advancement in addition to the rafting. Already have been told by the ASM heading it up that the 4 families liked it so much, that it is being scheduled for next year again. My older two sons are getting fed up. They don't want to transfer to another troop because of their friends though. That and they are trying to change it from inside. But I think they realize that the adults are the ones making the decisions, and not the Scouts. Especially since both are PLs and are on the PLC. Best example, troop did not have a September camp out planned. PLC came up with 2 choices for a camp out. #1 was a 3 day, 2 night at a place they never went to before. #2 was a 2 day 1 night backpacking trip. #1 is full. SM overuled #2 because he wants a 3 day 2 night camp out. So they are going to a place they have already been to this year. Good news is that the Scouts were allowed hammocks there in the past, and I do not see a reason for banning them.

At the moment we will not be a linked troop with a girls' troop. Not only do we no space for another meeting at our CO, the poll we took was that 1/2 the troop would quit or transfer if we started meeting and camping with the girls. But two things about the decision. 1) the IH stated if the girls' troop is not working out, he will revisit the decision. He has already come out in favor of "Linked Troops," but realizes losing 50% of the membership, and probably that many of the active and experienced Scouters would destroy the troop.2) the SM and his ASM heir apparent both have daughters and both want them in Scouts BSA. SM realizes what would happen with 50% loss and is in agreement with a separate girls' troop. The ASM however is ticked at the decision. He wants "linked troops," or as he calls it a coed troop, so that his daughter can be both an Eagle Scout and Gold Award recipient. He doesn't care if 1/2 the troop quits as a result. And he has already worked out a way to allow girls to camp without female Scouters: since the troop is "family friendly," if dad goes the girl can go since it is "family camping."

But I see the writing on the wall regarding national .I am on several Scouting related Facebook groups.  @gblotter is correct in that volunteers who bring up valid concerns about Family Scouting are being bullied and labeled. People do not want to recognize there are difference between boys and girls, everyone must be equal. And concerns that Scouts have are ignored. Folks are saying that they are only stating what they hear at home, or they are not getting accurate information on the changes, they need to go to XYZ website to get the correct information and see the charts. Sadly they don't believe that Scouts can think for themselves. They don't realize that they may have actually read the official documents, but either hypothesize the reality that will occur, or actually base their decisions on what they see is actually happening on the Cub level and how packs and dens are ignoring guidelines and rules to get girls in Cub Scouts. Don't believe they have seen what some councils are doing to give girls a head start: using Explorer Clubs for the 11- 13 year olds and Explorer Posts and Venturing Crews for the 14-16 year olds.  https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2018/08/historic_oregon_boy_scout_camp.html

Edited August 20, 2018 by Eagle94-A1