When to cancel a council event?

[4CouncilsScouter]

This weekend, my council's Venturing committee and Venturing Officers' Association planned a spring campout for crews to attend. Being on the council Venturing committee, it's been fantastic to see the youth step up take on planning responsibilities.

 

Unfortunately, here's where we are at today:

• The forecast calls for "potential [storms] to be severe with large hail and damaging winds" and "heavy
  flooding rainfall". This is supposed to come in on Friday and Saturday.
• The majority of our activities are outdoor based, e.g. shooting sports, climbing/rappelling, zip-lining, kayaking, and sailing.
• We have approximately 45 people registered. This is average if not above average for my council's Venturing events.

I'm not necessarily asking for advice on this particular situation, but what are the things or criteria you consider? I'd hate to see all our officers' work go to waste, but the safety of our youth is first. Any insight into your experiences or council's practices would be appreciated!

[desertrat77]

I think you have the right sight picture--safety first.  Can't speak specifically about council-wide events, but I think the same criteria applies to district and unit events as well: 

 

A couple of practices that I've found helpful:

 

- I'd recommend a message to all, today or early tomorrow:  "We're monitoring weather forecasts...we'll let you know NLT (day/time) if the event is still on."    This lets them know you are watching the wx, and they'll stand by to make adjustments as needed.

 

- Consider the back end of the event as well.  Wx might be nice Friday and Saturday, but turn ugly Sunday morning.  Are the roads good enough to hold up?  Will vehicles get stuck?   We recently rescheduled a scouting event for this very reason. 

 

- There is a difference between annoying/unpleasant wx, and dangerous wx.  Windy and wet is one thing.  The conditions you've mentioned are something else entirely.   Is it worth life/limb?  If not, then reschedule for another day.

 

I guess this post falls in the category of advice, but thanks for listening and I wish you and your scouts the very best.

Edited April 25, 2017 by desertrat77

[jwest09]

You might also take into account the facilities you have to work with.  Do you have a severe weather shelter that will accommodate your group?  Do you have an indoor meeting area where you can do indoor training or other activities?

 

I do my best to avoid flat out cancelling events due to weather. But we do need to Be Prepared - if the facility doesn't have a suitable shelter, you should consider cancelling.  If the facility does have a suitable shelter, then I'd usually be OK with holding the event, but ensuring that the leadership has someone dedicated to keeping an eye on the weather, and that everyone is familiar with emergency procedures.

[SSScout]

I'm with jwest09.   Look for alternative indoor stuff.  Is there a local museum you might ask to have  "lock in"?   Archery in rain and high winds just ain't right. 

Gin rummy tournament?   Bowling for Scouting?  Indoor pool?   Look at the map and see how close you can be to the original site and ask for help....  The name of "Boy Scouts" will open many doors.

[Back Pack]

@@4CouncilsScouter, I guess you live in OK or the Arklatex? The NWS are some of the best forecasters in the business, so they should have a more refined forecast by Thursday. The advice above of waiting until Friday is good. Maybe the weather is such you move check in from Friday to Saturday am? Maybe just do certain events Saturday?

 

The Storm Prediction Center is one of the best sites for helping to plan your events. They are usually spot on. Of course, if you live in OK they have the best weather folks in the world!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

[qwazse]

People are looking at the weather forecast now, so you want to send a notice letting advisors know that you're looking at it as well. Give them a date/time for when you will decide to implement plan B. (Our crew's go/no go decision for weekend activities is usually Thursday evenings, I try to involve the officers as much as possible.)

 

Plan B might necessarily be cancelling the event, so you want to have your call center prepared in order to get phone contact to every unit leader. Part of reaching out to units now is to make sure that you have correct contact information so that nobody arrives uninformed on Friday.

 

If your plan B involves indoor activities/emergency lodging in a storm certified shelter let them know that.

If there is a safe place for vehicles, let them know that. Although I haven't seen many venturers pull up with current model year vehicles, it may be a consideration. My minivan has a few pits from OK hail storms, If I were a novice with a new car, I might not take that so well.

 

You're plan C may involve evacuation. Let them know before they come what the expected evacuation route will be.

 

Do not hold the event if you do not think you can maintain efficient two-way communication with every unit. (Some VOA officers have been camp staff or otherwise have been trained in emergency management, others have not. So, this could determine your go/no go.)

[Col. Flagg]

When not Scouting, I chase storms in the plains. I agree with what has been said here:

• Communicate to your attendees and unit leaders. Let them know you are monitoring the weather.
• Be clear on when and how you will make your decision. Let them know under what circumstances you will cancel or reschedule.
• Use good forecasting sources. As @@backpack points out, the NWS are killer at pinpointing storms and their potential impact. Most weather apps are terrible at it because they are fairly general.
• The best "back up" resource to use IMHO is this. If you see storm chasers lining up near you, you can expect to see some hard weather. If you see Reed Timmer, you are likely in the path of a tornado. 
• Obviously, things to consider are lightning, severe storm and flash flood dangers. For example, we had to cancel an event one time not so much because of the weather that day or during the event, but because the resulting flash floods would have cut off all of the roads in or out of where where were.

Some great advice here. People will always appreciate you being over-communicative than otherwise. Safety is always the number one concern.

 

EDIT: I will add to the NOAA site mentioned above, this site can be quite useful too. While the SPC focuses on when and where the storms will hit, the hydrology teams focus on the aftermath of the storms, specifically the water movements and impact on things. We use these prior to canoeing or other events to judge exactly how much water will impact our event. For this weekend, check out how much water is expected in this region. This is an example but you can find your region on that site. Good Luck!!!

Edited April 25, 2017 by Col. Flagg

[4CouncilsScouter]

I've been in touch with some of the event leadership, and this is our update so far:

• Our camp currently doesn't have many fully-enclosed indoor structures, so indoor events would be very limited.
• The primary way into the camp is a low-water crossing, so we're concerned about getting participants in and out of the event.
• The lighting and storm hazards have us concerned about whether we'll be able to have ziplining, shooting sports, and aquatics. And, a potential for tornadoes has been added.
• We're supposed to make a decision tomorrow night after having another 24 hours to see how the weather will progress. We do know that another Scouting event 45 minutes north of us has cancelled.

@@Back Pack and @@Col. Flagg we've been checking the NWS religiously these past few days. Like you said, it's what we think is the most accurate.

[NJCubScouter]

I do not envy you having to make a decision that will affect people outside of your unit based on someone else's predictions of something that has not happened yet and could change.  It sounds like you are making the right move by deciding to make the decision 48 hours before the event.  It reminds me of something that happened a couple of years ago in our council, actually it was all of the councils in New Jersey.  They had decided to have a statewide jamboree at Liberty State Park (hence "Liberty Jamboree").  This thing was in the planning stage for well over a year and I do not know how many people were signed up, but it must have been in the thousands.  All kinds of activities were planned, patches were created, there were web sites, Facebook pages, mobile apps, promotional videos, etc.  Money was spent, registration fees were paid, etc.  It was a huge deal.  But it was cancelled, probably two or three days before it would have started.    In the days leading up to the Liberty Jamboree, the predictions started of a major Nor'easter for that weekend.  The forecast (which turned out to be correct) was so dire that the decision was taken out of the hands of the organizing committee.  Since it was in a state park, the state had the right to cancel the event, and they brought the issue to the governor, who made the call and also issued a travel ban in northern NJ for the Saturday of that weekend.  They never were able to get the thing rescheduled.  I suppose the patches aren't really "collector's items" any more than a patch for an event that DID take place, since most units probably distributed the patched to those who had been registered, but they are something of a conversation piece.  Now people can tell the story of how the governor canceled my camping trip.

Edited April 25, 2017 by NJCubScouter