Boys and Girls (Co-Ed) Cub and Boy Scouts Are Coming

[Peregrinator]

You're right. 20 years would be a 3% loss rate. 10 years would be a 6% loss rate.

 

BSA has already alienated their core base. And they will never be satisfied with stopping the decline, they will want to increase membership. BSA equates the two together. They think increasing membership is the way to stop the decline, yet nothing they've done has been successful. Frankly, I don't see them doing either (stopping decline or increasing).

 

Just want to point out that mathematically, the BSA could lose 3% of its current membership for 20 years and emerge at the end of that 20 years with over 50% of its current membership.

 

(0.97)^20 ~= 0.543 or 54.3%

 

A loss of 6% for 20 years would mean 29% of current membership.

 

At what point does the size of the BSA render the organization irrelevant? 20% of today's size, maybe (which would be about 10% of its size in 1970)? Current size is about 3.17 million. At 3% loss per year it will take 53 years for the BSA to fall under 20% of its current membership. That is, in 2070 BSA membership would stand at about 631K. At 6% loss per year it would take only about 26 years to reach this level.

 

Carry on.

[Col. Flagg]

Just want to point out that mathematically, the BSA could lose 3% of its current membership for 20 years and emerge at the end of that 20 years with over 50% of its current membership.

 

(0.97)^20 ~= 0.543 or 54.3%

 

A loss of 6% for 20 years would mean 29% of current membership.

 

I don't think your formula accounts for year-on-year decline based on a new reduced total.

 

http://www.miniwebtool.com/percent-growth-rate-calculator/

[qwazse]

I don't think your formula accounts for year-on-year decline based on a new reduced total.

 

http://www.miniwebtool.com/percent-growth-rate-calculator/

?? I plugged in 1 million, 1/2 million, and 20 years and got 2.5%/year.

Close enough. But there was no ending number that could get even close to 6% (well -500.K).

So, the very fact that the formula allows negative numbers is a good indication that it's not meant for the kind of exponential growth/decline we're talking about.

 

Pere's exponential growth/decay formula is the one I'd go to first. Calculate here http://www.rapidtables.com/calc/math/exponential-growth-calculator.htm.

Edited March 10, 2017 by qwazse

[fred johnson]

The BSA's relevance fades the further it moves away from the outdoors.

 

Fully agree with this.  Gender and orientation are not big factors.  BSA's relevance is using the outdoors to teach core values.  

[Gwaihir]

Totally unplanned.

 

So is the implication that people will hate the New Scouting so much they will join Classic Scouting?

 

yup, totally unplanned (tho some conspiracy theories say otherwise), but yeah, maybe a shift to classic scouting is just what the program needs. 

[Peregrinator]

I don't think your formula accounts for year-on-year decline based on a new reduced total.

 

http://www.miniwebtool.com/percent-growth-rate-calculator/

 

It actually does.

 

Year 1 of decline = 97% of previous year (Year 0)

Year 2 of decline = 97% of Year 1 or 97% of 97% of Year 0

etc.

 

The calculator to which you linked does a straight-line calculation which doesn't account for yearly declines. It simply divides the total decline (or growth) by the number of years.

[Peregrinator]

Anyway, as far as actual numbers are concerned, the BSA suffered a 5.36% loss from 2012 to 2013 (I am counting only traditional programs here) and a 6.08% loss from 2013 to 2014, but under 3% from 2014 to 2015 and possibly under 1% from 2015 to 2016 (I don't think official #s have been released yet). A lot of last year's non-loss is due to the Lion Cub pilot.

[Col. Flagg]

Anyway, as far as actual numbers are concerned, the BSA suffered a 5.36% loss from 2012 to 2013 (I am counting only traditional programs here) and a 6.08% loss from 2013 to 2014, but under 3% from 2014 to 2015 and possibly under 1% from 2015 to 2016 (I don't think official #s have been released yet). A lot of last year's non-loss is due to the Lion Cub pilot.

 

The annual report has different numbers. They've averaged 3% losses prior to 2013. Since, it has been closer to 6%.

[qwazse]

From the Report to the Nation 2016 (presented this week to POTUS and congress):

 

• 1,262,311 boys ages 6 to 10 in Cub Scouts
• 822,999 boys ages 11 to 17 in Boy Scouts and Varsity Scouts
• 119,268 young men and women ages 10 to 20 in Exploring career-based programs (including the STEM Scouts pilot program)
• 136,629 young men and women ages 14 to 20 in Venturing and Sea Scouts
• 372,891 boys and girls in elementary through high school in Learning for Life character education programs
• 102,888 units, representing partnerships and collaborations with businesses and community and religious organizations that support BSA programs

Edited March 10, 2017 by qwazse

[RememberSchiff]

From the 2016 Report to Nation

 

• 1,262,311 boys ages 6 to 10 in Cub Scouts

ʉۢ 822,999 boys ages 11 to 17 in Boy Scouts and Varsity Scouts

• 119,268 young men and women ages 10 to 20 in Exploring career-based programs (including the STEM

Scouts pilot program)

• 136,629 young men and women ages 14 to 20 in Venturing and Sea Scouts

• 372,891 boys and girls in elementary through high school in Learning for Life character

education programs

• 102,888 units, representing partnerships and collaborations with businesses and community and religious

organizations that support BSA programs

 

@@qwazse scooped me!    Well done. Here's link

 

http://www.scoutingnewsroom.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-Report-to-the-Nation.pdf

Edited March 11, 2017 by RememberSchiff
fix links

[Back Pack]

Look back at previous reports to the present. They always understate the loss, only to be revised in the annual report (May) and then further revised in August. Expect that 2% to go up. Always does.

Also, the previous stats are for all of Scouting not just Boy Scouts.

Edited March 11, 2017 by RememberSchiff
typo

[qwazse]

For "fun" here are annual report stats and percent changes over the past 19 years. (I took previous years from a poster on scouts-l.org.)

 

Year Cub       Boy   Vent    Total   dCubs  dBoys  dVent  dTot

1998 2171987 1023442 188010 3383439          

1999 2166289 1023691 202164 3392144   -0.26  0.02   7.53  0.26

2000 2114420 1003691 233858 3351969   -2.39 -1.95  15.68 -1.18

2001 2043478 1005592 276434 3325504   -3.36  0.19  18.21 -0.79

2002 2000478 1010791 293323 3304592   -2.10  0.52   6.11 -0.63

2003 1914425  997398 288395 3200218   -4.30 -1.33  -1.68 -3.16

2004 1875752  988995 280584 3145331   -2.02 -0.84  -2.71 -1.72

2005 1745324  943426 249948 2938698   -6.95 -4.61 -10.92 -6.57

2006 1701861  922836 244266 2868963   -2.49 -2.18  -2.27 -2.37

2007 1687986  913588 254259 2855833   -0.82 -1.00   4.09 -0.46

2008 1665635  905879 261122 2832636   -1.32 -0.84   2.70 -0.81

2009 1634951  898320 257361 2790632   -1.84 -0.83  -1.44 -1.48

2010 1601994  898852 238846 2739692   -2.02  0.06  -7.19 -1.83

2011 1583166  909576 231127 2723869   -1.18  1.19  -3.23 -0.58

2012 1528421  910920 219453 2658794   -3.46  0.15  -5.05 -2.39

2013 1417034  888947 192080 2498061   -7.29 -2.41 -12.47 -6.05

2014 1295527  854692 157655 2307874   -8.57 -3.85 -17.92 -7.61

2015 1261340  840654 142892 2244886   -2.64 -1.64  -9.36 -2.73

2016 1262311  822999 136629 2221939    0.08 -2.10  -4.38 -1.02

 

If the "bump" in cubs is real and represents an infusion of more than Lions, there may be room for optimism.

Edited March 11, 2017 by qwazse

[Stosh]

 

For "fun" here are annual report stats and percent changes over the past 19 years.

 

 

Year Cub Boy Venturing Total   dCubs dBoys dVent dTot 1998 2171987 1023442 188010 3383439           1999 2166289 1023691 202164 3392144   -0.26 0.02 7.53 0.26 2000 2114420 1003691 233858 3351969   -2.39 -1.95 15.68 -1.18 2001 2043478 1005592 276434 3325504   -3.36 0.19 18.21 -0.79 2002 2000478 1010791 293323 3304592   -2.10 0.52 6.11 -0.63 2003 1914425 997398 288395 3200218   -4.30 -1.33 -1.68 -3.16 2004 1875752 988995 280584 3145331   -2.02 -0.84 -2.71 -1.72 2005 1745324 943426 249948 2938698   -6.95 -4.61 -10.92 -6.57 2006 1701861 922836 244266 2868963   -2.49 -2.18 -2.27 -2.37 2007 1687986 913588 254259 2855833   -0.82 -1.00 4.09 -0.46 2008 1665635 905879 261122 2832636   -1.32 -0.84 2.70 -0.81 2009 1634951 898320 257361 2790632   -1.84 -0.83 -1.44 -1.48 2010 1601994 898852 238846 2739692   -2.02 0.06 -7.19 -1.83 2011 1583166 909576 231127 2723869   -1.18 1.19 -3.23 -0.58 2012 1528421 910920 219453 2658794   -3.46 0.15 -5.05 -2.39 2013 1417034 888947 192080 2498061   -7.29 -2.41 -12.47 -6.05 2014 1295527 854692 157655 2307874   -8.57 -3.85 -17.92 -7.61 2015 1261340 840654 142892 2244886   -2.64 -1.64 -9.36 -2.73 2016 1262311 822999 136629 2221939   0.08 -2.10 -4.38 -1.02

 

Did you write this in computer code or did your computer go on the fritz?

[qwazse]

Did you write this in computer code or did your computer go on the fritz?

Looked perfect until I posted. Hopefully it's a little better with edits.

[Peregrinator]

The annual report has different numbers. They've averaged 3% losses prior to 2013. Since, it has been closer to 6%.

 

My numbers come from the annual report, but I am counting the # of adult volunteers as well, and counting Venturers separately (as it's not a "traditional" program). And the steepest losses over the past few years have been in Venturing.