Food For Thought...

[packsaddle]

Stosh, yes. I have auctioned a goat. It was perfectly bar-b-cued, tender, and nicely seasoned. Sauce of your choice. The auction went quite well.

 

Horizon, I agree and when the 'Mrs' finishes that multivariate model, let me know what the confidence limits do each year out on the prediction. Most of these kinds of things really don't mean a lot when you get just few years out. But it's all going to be OK in September at any rate, lol. Any guess on what the 'confidence' limits are on THAT prediction?

[Horizon]

packsaddle - lets not have an inappropriate comments on p-values, OK?

 

[packsaddle]

My bad.

[Stosh]

Stosh, yes. I have auctioned a goat. It was perfectly bar-b-cued, tender, and nicely seasoned. Sauce of your choice. The auction went quite well.

 

Auctioned a goat?  What's the fun in that.  What was the winning bid?

 

We raffled a goat and it brought in about $3500, and the kids that won it didn't eat it, it died of old age.  

[packsaddle]

Well, 'auction' was a stretch, more of a 'sale', bit by bit, lol. We didn't do anywhere near as well  as you but we did make a profit and had fun and food to eat as well.

[Stosh]

Free goat, no prep, short piece of leash and a Sharpie pen to write the names on any piece of paper we could find.  The $3500 was pure profit.

[Peregrinator]

Bad Wolf, your signature line is apropos. So why choose a linear model based solely on the last few years?

BSA membership is currently slightly more than half what it was in 1970.

[Stosh]

And what happens when one changes the program thinking it is the problem when it isn't?

 

From the 1970's and onward, there was a major shift in the public's attitude that continues even until now.  Recruitment was occurring within the schools, schools were CO's.  Interest surveys were being taken and huge mailings were going out to interested youth.  All these things have now gone away and except for a pitch in the fall for Cub Scouting, Boy Scouting and Venturing is no longer a council recruiting process.

 

To draw the conclusion that it was the program and not the social perception might have been a wrong call.  So what is it that people see?  The numbers are down, the councils are consolidating and the camps are closing.  We look at the GSUSA and see the same thing.  My daughter was Silver and won't have anything to do with the program for her daughter.  

 

Scouting is not the prestigious organization it used to be.  It used to be a priority in people's lives because of the value it provided.  The major reason I strongly discourage the local council camp is because it is too close and the last year I attended there (a number of years back) boys were coming and going all week long to karate lessons, baseball games, etc. I even had one boy just coming out for the day to do MB's.  I guess some of the parents really never got over the Cub Day Camp philosophy when their boys moved on to Boy Scouts.  

 

I used to push really hard to get the boys to summer camp, now if they drag their feet for any reason I encourage them to stay at home so as to preserve the continuity of those who do go. 

[Gone]

GS have a different model and have seen a drop since 2003. Their reasons for their drop are below. I think BSA shares some of those problems but not as many.

 

http://nypost.com/2014/10/10/girl-scouts-memberships-are-plummeting/

[Stosh]

I'm under the belief that a lot of that is just media/political smoke and mirrors and not the real reasons.  We had our Little Leagues and such when i was a kid and we did both.  The homosexual issue is smoke and mirrors as well and a current hot topic that sells in the media today. Obviously the homosexual issue is not the reason for the decline of membership since the 1970's.

 

So what changed in the 1970's and what changes can be made today to stem the bleeding?

[packsaddle]

Hint: In 37 states recently, the highest paid public servant was/is a coach. In the 1960s there was still a shred of 'amateur' in college sports and 'student' in student-athlete. This institution (like many others) had a stadium that could hold the student body and some guests from the opponent school. Today it (like others) can hold the entire population of a small country with room left over for the student body.

We've become a 'herd' society focused on sports, also often delivered on a flat screen with beverages and food.

Edit: Incomprehensibly that last comment even applies to GOLF!!! of all things. Good grief!

Edited June 12, 2015 by packsaddle

[Stosh]

Okay, I can buy into that, the competition dynamic has gotten way out of hand, even see it prevalent in politics as well as sports.  Keeping up with the Jones on a social level also applies.

 

So where does that leave us with scouting which still retains the competition thingy for fun.  Except for the Eagle Mill thingy, and of course the resume and job application win situation.  Okay, Scouting has gotten beyond it's competition roots too.  

 

Instead of building men of good character have we bought into the idea of building winners?

 

I see an edge in Scouting if they were to promote and actually deliver on the leadership aspect instead of the competition dynamic.  After all, the coach is the real winner, all the players, even those on the bench and the people in the stands are winners only by proxy.

 

This from the guy that went back and forth in Little League between first base and pitching and could outrun all but one person in my school for cross-country?  Yeah, I could do it but I didn't like sports at all.

 

Except for the ringer patrols at camporee that need to win-at-all-cost, should we be encouraging such competition in scouting?  I do know the Madison Scouts Drum and Bugle Corps takes competition to the national level and does rather well.  But that's more of an exception rather than a rule of Scouting.

[Eagledad]

If I remember right, the BSA made big membership gains in the early 90's where they had the most scouts ever. I can't remember the details, the 90s were a huge boon for membership. Theory is the Gulf war inspired a lot of patriotism. The big decline really started after 2000.

 

I do not believe the gay issue is smoke and mirrors because it was even a topic of several discussions here at work with folks who didn't have boys or kids. Everyone knew about it. In fact my fear was many parents stayed away from the BSA more to just not get in discussions with friends who were judging. And history supports it as well because every youth scouting organization that made the gay membership change took big hits. Only the Scouts in England have recovered as far as I know. 

 

Now a lot of folks think allowing women leaders was a big boost to the program. I don't know how that can be measured, but I will say that most of the changes we have seen in training in the last 20 years are a result of the huge influx of inexperienced adult leaders. Does that make a difference? Well  many here believe the number one reason the BSA doesn't have a good image today is because it is getting away from the out doors. It certainly isn't promoting it as much. It is fair to say that almost 3/4 or new adult leaders today have never camped in their life before joining the BSA. They don't have any memories of camping or scouting as a youth. They only have training. Before the women leaders policy change, it went without saying that most leaders had at least camped in their youth and likely had some boy scout experience. You don't think that has something to do with those who have some control of image?

 

So, trying to figure this out is a lot more complicated than comparing membership numbers 50 years apart. National has made A LOT of major policy and program changes that have had a "Huge" "Huge" effect on the program. Most folks here know that I am no fan of the Tiger program. I believe it is a major contributor to adult burnout which has led to less than 50 percent of Webelos not making it to the Troop program. 

 

Maybe what we are really dealing with here is that the present image of the BSA is a casualty of the natural evolution of progress and we shouldn't fight it. Some of the old timers here are mocking traditional scouting anyway, so maybe it is time to accept a paradigm shift. That is what the Girl Scouts have been doing. 

 

Barry

[packsaddle]

I see nothing wrong with traditional outdoor activities (scouting for most of us) as a niche offering. Why does there have to be a huge national organization? Why can't it be viewed as some form of 'elite' status as long as it's available to everyone? To me it just needs to be scouting and we shouldn't worry about how bloated salaries are justified and paid.

[Gone]

I'm under the belief that a lot of that is just media/political smoke and mirrors and not the real reasons.  We had our Little Leagues and such when i was a kid and we did both.  The homosexual issue is smoke and mirrors as well and a current hot topic that sells in the media today. Obviously the homosexual issue is not the reason for the decline of membership since the 1970's.

 

So what changed in the 1970's and what changes can be made today to stem the bleeding?

 

@ Stosh, I don't think anyone is advocating the gay issues has plagued BSA since the 1970s. Only since their recent policy change in 2013 does their appear to be a link between that issue and the decline in membership.

 

I don't profess to know what the reason was for the decline since 1970. Here are the stats reported out to the press from 1960-1999. I have posted in another thread the numbers reported out since 1998.

 

 

 

 

If I remember right, the BSA made big membership gains in the early 90's where they had the most scouts ever. I can't remember the details, the 90s were a huge boon for membership. Theory is the Gulf war inspired a lot of patriotism. The big decline really started after 2000.

 

I do not believe the gay issue is smoke and mirrors because it was even a topic of several discussions here at work with folks who didn't have boys or kids. Everyone knew about it. In fact my fear was many parents stayed away from the BSA more to just not get in discussions with friends who were judging. And history supports it as well because every youth scouting organization that made the gay membership change took big hits. Only the Scouts in England have recovered as far as I know. 

 

Now a lot of folks think allowing women leaders was a big boost to the program. I don't know how that can be measured, but I will say that most of the changes we have seen in training in the last 20 years are a result of the huge influx of inexperienced adult leaders. Does that make a difference? Well  many here believe the number one reason the BSA doesn't have a good image today is because it is getting away from the out doors. It certainly isn't promoting it as much. It is fair to say that almost 3/4 or new adult leaders today have never camped in their life before joining the BSA. They don't have any memories of camping or scouting as a youth. They only have training. Before the women leaders policy change, it went without saying that most leaders had at least camped in their youth and likely had some boy scout experience. You don't think that has something to do with those who have some control of image?

 

So, trying to figure this out is a lot more complicated than comparing membership numbers 50 years apart. National has made A LOT of major policy and program changes that have had a "Huge" "Huge" effect on the program. Most folks here know that I am no fan of the Tiger program. I believe it is a major contributor to adult burnout which has led to less than 50 percent of Webelos not making it to the Troop program. 

 

Maybe what we are really dealing with here is that the present image of the BSA is a casualty of the natural evolution of progress and we shouldn't fight it. Some of the old timers here are mocking traditional scouting anyway, so maybe it is time to accept a paradigm shift. That is what the Girl Scouts have been doing. 

 

Barry

 

@@Eagledad, your memory is close but a few years off. The gains for Boy Scouts as a subgroup was mid- to late- 1990s. There were gains in the various programs which you can probably map back to Boomers getting involved or their kids having kids. Sadly, the stats posted above don't track the decline in the 1970s year by year.