Food For Thought...

[DuctTape]

Yes modeling is important, and complex and incolve both long term and shortvterm forecasting and causes are multi-variate. Yet, in this specific issue, you attempt to simplify it down to a single cause, with the only evidence being something changed, and you also force it to be linear by using an average, and you select only a subset of the data. That is not how modeling nor statistics are done except if one is looking to "prove" their preconceived notion.

[Gone]

Yes modeling is important, and complex and incolve both long term and shortvterm forecasting and causes are multi-variate. Yet, in this specific issue, you attempt to simplify it down to a single cause, with the only evidence being something changed, and you also force it to be linear by using an average, and you select only a subset of the data. That is not how modeling nor statistics are done except if one is looking to "prove" their preconceived notion.

 

Did you actually READ what I posted? 

 

I said there is no definitive proof as to the cause of the dramatic membership decline we've seen since 2012. I said *I* have concluded that but I DID NOT say there is proof of it. I was obviously expressing my opinion and said so clearly.

[DuctTape]

Yes you said you concluded. I apologize for stating it as proof. However, the rest of what I said stands, replace proof with conclude.

[Gone]

Yes you said you concluded. I apologize for stating it as proof. However, the rest of what I said stands, replace proof with conclude.

 

No, it does not "stand". One can have an opinion which is based on fact and supported by assumptions. I used established facts and drew a conclusion based on those facts. Membership decreased at a particular rate from 98-2010. Since 2013 -- the year of the last major change to scouting -- that numbers has nearly doubled. Happenstance? The economy? The "war"? What accounts for that increase? 

 

You can have the opinion that the increased decline in membership is NOT related to the membership policy change if you like. However, if you do, please offer another reason for said decline. What do YOU think the reason is that for two years since the membership change we have seen a marked increase in the rate membership loss when, historically since 1998, we have recorded no other such dramatic changes.

 

Put some skin in the game.

[Eagledad]

I'm still not sure what the point of this discussion, or if there really ever was one. Why the sudden latest decline, it is a guess without all the numbers that the gay issue hit the BSA hard, but it is a pretty safe guess. Personally I think the BSA is fairing better than I thought. The same left turn move hit the Girls Scouts and Campfire kids pretty hard and almost took the Canadian Scouts down completely. In fact compared to what the Canadian Scouts were in the mid 90s before their progressive policy changes, the Canadian Scouts ARE dead.

 

But, all that being said, the BSA has internal program policies that are killing numbers as well. Tigers and Webelos both loose almost 50% of their scouts. That is a huge problem. But I'm not sure that the OP is even talking about that. So what is this discussion really about? How to build elite units? What is that?

 

Barry

[Gone]

@@Eagledad, reading the OP I think @@Stosh was opining several issues which he did not define. I suspect the gay issue is but one. The others, looking at his other posts may be the decline of the patrol method, lack of involved parents, BSA focusing on things not part of their core mission, etc.

 

This seems a potpourri thread. The current argument is obviously the decline in membership, the reasons therefore and what the future numbers may be if additional membership or program changes take place.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Bad Wolf

[DuctTape]

No, my conclusion that your simplistic use of statistical modeling (ie linear model), assumptions, cherry picking of data intervals makes your conclusion nebulous at best. In the field this is calling into question the methodology. It is a common practice. If one were interested in actually determining something, they would accept critique if their methodology, improve on it, etc... instead of holding fast to their desired outcome.

[Gone]

No, my conclusion that your simplistic use of statistical modeling (ie linear model), assumptions, cherry picking of data intervals makes your conclusion nebulous at best. In the field this is calling into question the methodology. It is a common practice. If one were interested in actually determining something, they would accept critique if their methodology, improve on it, etc... instead of holding fast to their desired outcome.

 

So again, you offer no alternative to my conclusion. I give facts. You throw stones.

 

Why the steep decline in 2013? Why the steeper decline in 2014? Why the continued decline in 2015? Why are the declines for the last two years (and apparently 2015 as well) nearly two times what the historical average has been since 1998?

 

You try to obfuscate the analysis by claiming things have been simplified or assumed away, or using denigrating terms like "cherry picking". I don't think you understand what statistical analysis is about. You cannot "cherry pick" when you use ALL the data over a 15+ year period.

 

Again, I ask you to put some skin in this game. Why do YOU think the steeper decline happened. Dazzle me with your superior statistical prowess. Show me you know what you're talking about rather than selectively using lame old standard argument used to deride the use of facts and logic.

 

C'mon, tell us what YOU think rather than just deriding others. 

[skeptic]

This is the kind of publicity that grabs; but it is seldom noted outside the actual Scouting publications, even though it was probably published widely in many periodicals.  

 

http://scoutingnewsroom.org/blog/eagle-scout-with-an-edge-inside-nitro-circus-rider-wake-schepman/

[Eagledad]

@@Eagledad, reading the OP I think @@Stosh was opining several issues which he did not define. I suspect the gay issue is but one. The others, looking at his other posts may be the decline of the patrol method, lack of involved parents, BSA focusing on things not part of their core mission, etc.

 

This seems a potpourri thread. The current argument is obviously the decline in membership, the reasons therefore and what the future numbers may be if additional membership or program changes take place.

Thanks

 

Barry

[Stosh]

As @ correctly supposes, the thread is open to all kinds of possibilities for discussion on how to improve scouting and or stem it's decline.

 

The reason I put it out there is because I don't think there is a simple one fix issue out there.

 

1) Kids don't outdoors like they did 50 years ago.

 

2) Kids today have more on their plate of things to do.

 

3) Electronic addiction is out there and it's real.

 

4) Financial priorities are now in the hands of the parents giving out money rather than in past years where the boys raised money with odd jobs to pay for their scouting.

 

5) Major focuses of program tend to confuse rather than open up opportunities

 

6) any one of a number of issues out there that can be the straw that broke the camel's back and people just figured it wasn't worth the hassle anymore.

 

So where's the draw to overcome all that?  What is that will take the dork out of Scouting?  What would it take to have to deal with boys beating down the doors to get into scouting?

 

I don't think it's just one magic pill that's going to do it, but some kind of extended term rehabilitation process that is going to be needed.

 

What say ye?

[Gone]

This is the kind of publicity that grabs; but it is seldom noted outside the actual Scouting publications, even though it was probably published widely in many periodicals.  

 

http://scoutingnewsroom.org/blog/eagle-scout-with-an-edge-inside-nitro-circus-rider-wake-schepman/

 

Try doing that at a troop meeting and watch national pass another "restriction".

 

Good for him!

[Gone]

 

3) Electronic addiction is out there and it's real.

 

 

The irony of using this medium to discuss #3 is fun.

[Stosh]

The irony of using this medium to discuss #3 is fun.

 

How do you think I don't know how addictive it is?  

[Horizon]

If I were to try to run some data analysis (which would require the assistance of Dr. Mrs. Horizon, as she is the researcher in the family), I would love the following data set:

 

# of Scouts by age 

# of available youth

- Step 1 is to track our decline against available youth

- Additional check to look at this vs. different ethnic groups. Scouting has a PERCEPTION of being a suburban, white hobby (certainly not the case in my unit though). 

Hypothesis: Fewer white kids = fewer Scouts overall?

 

# of registered volunteers or better yet parents with youth Scouting experience (how much of an impact did the drop in the 1970s impact today)

Hypothesis: Our numbers are impacted by the drop in parents who have fond memories of Scouting as a youth themselves.

 

Some sort of an analysis of time in rank - drop out rates of cubs who bridge vs. youth who join Boy Scouting. Maybe just look at the Arrow of Light and see if that predicts Scout sticking around.

 

Average # of nights camping per year per Scout?

Hypothesis: adventure has been curtailed, impacting retention. I don't think this is true, but it would be good test.

 

Then run some analysis of Scouts in the news, code for positive or negative coverage.

Hypothesis: Negative news impacts registration. Some who don't feel strongly might avoid Scouting just to avoid controversy. We are seeing American football being hit due to news about concussion risks, for example.

 

Other variables to add:

- Growth in year-round club sports

- Weekend academic camps

- Dual working parents and single parents (hmm - % of Scouts from families with two parents?)

- Church attendance and the growth in church charter partners.

Hypothesis: Due to the Dale decision, Scouts moved MORE into the church (someone correct me if wrong). At the same time, overall church attendance has dropped in many congregations, especially among the young (again - we should check this). We became associated with the church while, at the same time, churches were losing younger members.

 

In the meantime, my Troop had to finally institute a cap on membership. 6 Patrols is almost too much, and we want to drop down to 5. We have 2 trips this month (one fishing, one backpacking). We have plenty of Scouts, great parental participation, and a summer camp trip planned into the Sierras. 

 

But the nerd in me would love to see some multi-variate analysis going back as far as possible.