Does Mitt Romney stand a chance?

[Eamonn]

Does anyone really think that Mitt Romney will win the presidential election?

Just wondering.

Ea.

[purcelce]

I think it's going to be the economy that beats Obama...People will vote for Romney because the economy has stall/retreated under Obama.

[scoutingagain]

Of course he has a chance. Probably a decent one. Although I think it's less than 50/50. And I agree it will be the economy that will be the biggest factor. If the economy keeps adding 200,000 jobs/month and the unemployment rate keeps inching down, and the economy keeps up with even a weak recovery, I think Mitt has a tough time. On the other hand if there is an international crisis with say Iran, and gas prices surge and the economy stalls or falters in the next six months, Obama will be the one that will have a tough time.

 

I just find it ironic that with the Republicans so focused on defeating Obama, they will ulitmately select a candidate that from a policy standpoint is most like Obama. Apparently they seem to believe most Americans are not really true conservatives.

 

SA

 

 

[BS-87]

I think for Obama to win, growth has to be more than anemic.

 

Reagan won re-election despite recession in his first term by recovering from recession at a 6% growth rate. Obama's 2.4% growth rate keeps us lagging behind the 3% trend and therefore causing our economy to continue effectively shrinking by global comparison, whereas Reagan's enormous growth rates returned the economy to the trend line.

 

In this case, growth is being viewed from a static angle when it should really be compared to the trend line.

 

That may be enough to fool the masses and allow Obama to say he's "growing" the economy without lying, but it just isn't true as a share of the world market and in a comparison to the growth trend of the American economy.

 

With inflation outpacing economic growth, most Americans do not feel the American economy improving, and are less gullible in that sense to the malarkey coming from 1600 Penn.

 

You've got to like Romney's odds so long as his campaign can keep the Economy as the central issue.

[Scouter.]

As much as I think I would like him to...no

 

Peace...S.

 

 

[John-in-KC]

Mr FlipFlop?

 

I will never vote for him. My nickname for him is why. Political integrity? He has none.

[scoutingagain]

"That may be enough to fool the masses and allow Obama to say he's "growing" the economy without lying, but it just isn't true as a share of the world market and in a comparison to the growth trend of the American economy. "

 

The real fooling of the masses is the idea the President... Obama, Bush, Romney or whomever really has much to do with the economy anyway. That is if you believe in a free capitalist system, and as much govt intrusion as there is, we still have one of the freeist econonomies in the world. Short of Nixon style wage/price controls there's really not much a President can do on his own to effect the economy, especially in the short term. But I agree, the masses will attribute the state of the economy to the sitting President, right or wrong. It sunk Carter and Bush I. I also agree Romney needs to keep the debate about the economy. If it slips into social issues, like women's access to birth control, he's toast.

 

It will be interesting to see who Romney picks as a VP. Will he make the same mistake McCain made and pick someone that will fire up the hard right of the party, but put off moderates, or will he be more pragmatic and look to the middle?

 

SA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tampa Turtle]

A chance. Yes. But IMHO it is Obama's to lose.

[Beavah]

I think it's going to be the economy that beats Obama...People will vote for Romney because the economy has stall/retreated under Obama.

 

Yah, because da president has soooo much control over the economy.

 

For a free country, we sure do seem to want hold our president responsible for the economy like he's some sort of communist Chinese government economic planner.

 

George W. Bush wasn't responsible for the crash, either, eh?

 

The economy is driven by the choices of 300 million Americans. Do they save, invest, spend, max their credit cards, treat their banking job like a casino gambling with other people's money, work hard, get a good education, stay healthy? The economy is driven by a few billion people outside the U.S. as well. Do they save more and work harder then those in the U.S.? Do they have a better education or access to more resources?

 

The president can do very little to affect the economy. Tryin' to reduce defense budgets and involvement in wars I suppose. Ensuring competent oversight and appropriate regulation of the financial markets and aggressive prosecution for fraud when it occurs. Tryin' to negotiate favorable treaties. That's about it, eh? Probably the biggest thing the president does that affects the economy is nominate people to positions on the Federal Reserve board.

 

So if yeh vote for any president because of the economy yeh are a fool.

 

Beavah

 

[CalicoPenn]

I'm not sure that Romney can make a stand on the economy much either - he had a lackluster track record on the economy when he was Governor of Massachussets, and for most people, the economy means jobs, and Romney will have a tough row to hoe with his business record of shutting down companies and shipping jobs overseas. Regardless of whether he personally did so, or it was his company, most people will still equate the two together. I'm not sure that "I like firing people" and thinking it's humorous that daddy closed a plant in Michigan and sent the jobs to Wisconsin just before running for governor of Michigan is going to go over very well with people struggling to find a job.

 

Does he have a chance? I think it depends on whether he can energize Republicans to actually come out and vote. Republican's haven't shown they're very eager to vote in the primaries (the numbers of voters actually voting in the primaries are dismal) and some polling suggests that there is a fairly significant number of Republicans considering just staying home this November.

 

I also suspect we're going to see a lot of Democrats who didn't turn out in 2010 flocking to the polls in November to try to stop the damage the tea party has inflicted since 2010 with Republicans not being as enthused for tea party candidates anymore.

 

I think that this year, we're going to see a reversal of the recent trend towards record voting numbers in Presidential election years and we'll see fewer people at the polls this year.

[Twocubdad]

Does ROmney stand a chance?

 

Doesn't matter, the election will be a referendum on Obama. Economy will make a difference, especially gas price, reaction to SCOTUS decision on Obamacare, how the looming battle on the debt ceiling this fall, etc., etc. The Republican nominee is just along for the ride.

[packsaddle]

Romney stands a good chance. Either one of them could blow it though. But if I had to bet, I'd bet that the guy already in office has the advantage but maybe not by much.

The one thing I'm really expecting is that I'm going to experience a strip search before I die. The suspense is terrible...I hope it will last.

[sst3rd]

I don't like having only two choices.

 

And I'm tired of voting "against" someone, instead of "for" someone.

 

I don't trust any of them.

 

sst3rd

[Lisabob]

Yes I think he does (and I say that as an ardent Democrat who wants Obama to win).

 

A lot of Dems are pretty disenchanted with Obama's relatively centrist policies, especially on the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, on (not) closing Gitmo, on civil liberties issues.

 

A lot of people who aren't really political at all voted in the last election based largely on Obama's charisma were disappointed to discover that Obama is, after all, a politician.

 

A lot of independents who might have voted for McCain, had he chosen somebody other than Palin as a running mate, ended up voting for Obama instead.

 

 

This time around, Obama has to scare his base enough with the Romney boogey man, to convince them to get out there and vote for him even if they are disenchanted. (It sure would help, if Romney picks Santorum or Gingrich (ha!) as his veep) He will have a much harder time getting the usually-disengaged and non-political idealists back to the polls, so he'll need to pick up some other groups instead.

 

Or, maybe he's counting on the Republican base being so luke-warm about Romney that Republican and right-leaning independent turnout will be lower than usual. But this isn't a bet I'd want to make.

 

And I think a lot of "Reagan Democrats" might end up being "Romney Democrats," too.

 

So, John-in-KC - if you won't vote for Romney and he ends up as the Republican candidate, what will you do? Stay home? Vote Obama (ha! again!)? Vote 3rd party?

 

 

 

(This message has been edited by lisabob)

[Lisabob]

"The one thing I'm really expecting is that I'm going to experience a strip search before I die."

 

pack...heh heh. This, alone, is good reason for all of us to vote Democratic - because, really, thinking about some of our fellow citizens & residents, do we honestly want to inflict the sight of certain naked bodies on the police? In the future, this will be a major down-side to becoming a police officer (NO! DON'T MAKE ME DO ANOTHER UNWARRANTED CAVITY SEARCH! MY EYES! THE PAIN!) And I venture to guess that far fewer Democratically-nominated SCOTUS justices than Republican-nominated ones would rule in favor of strip-searches-for-all.