Harvard University and the 4th of July - Who knew?

[eisely]

The JFK school at Harvard recently released a scientific study linking fourth of July celebrations and conservative attitudes in kids. It turns out all you have to do is expose your kids to a parade or two and they become more patriotic and more likely to vote Republican. Wow!!

 

The researchers also determined that when it rains the liklihood of celebrations on the fourth of July being canceled increases.

 

Those Harvard guys are really smart.

 

See link below.

 

 

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/4th-july-paper-david-yanagizawa-drott(This message has been edited by eisely)

[Scoutfish]

I remember a few years ago..or maybe it was over 15...that I was watching the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

 

During the opening momologue, he was yaking about the latest $10,000,000.00 scientific study conducted on behalf of the US government.

 

In thjis study which lasted about 6 months, scientists discoverd that more people died when 747 ( carrying 524 passengers) crashed than when Piper Cubs ( carrying 4 passengers) crashed.

 

Really? Amazing. I would have completed that study in 5 minutes and only charged the government $100,000.00 to do it!

 

[Eamonn]

As a non-citizen, I tried hard to ensure that my son was exposed to as many patriotic activities as possible.

If I ever thought that any of this might ever have anything to do with him being a Republican, we wouldn't have done it!

Still I just can't see me taking him to a gay pride march.

Safe thing might be to stay home and watch the telly!

Ea.

[vol_scouter]

Eamonn,

 

Being a republican is not a bad thing. It is important that the youth know the country's history, the founding fathers, and the concepts of liberty & individual freedoms. Being patriotic is a good thing. He will determine which party best represents his views when he is able to vote. The Fourth of July celebrations will help to encourage him to vote and participate in the system no matter the party affiliation that he eventually chooses.

[Eamonn]

He is going to be 22 next week.

So far it seems that I've failed in my quest to keep him on the Left.

Some people never learn!

It looks like he is going to be a conservative.

Must have been one parade too many!

While I'm here.

I want to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday.

Ea.

[CalicoPenn]

I read the paper (all 40 pages of it). I can't say I'm surprised that it was released by Harvard rather than by a peer reviewed journal. I have doubts that a peer reviewed journal would let this get past the mail room into reviewers hands in the first place. Using rainfall to substitute for studying a cohort of subjects over a period of years? May as well use the number of donuts served by Krispy Kreme on the day before Thanksgiving to determine if people are more or less likely to eat Pumpkin Pie for desert on Thanksgiving day.

 

Hmmm - that gives me an idea. If this paper is an example of the scholarship accepted by Harvard, I should propose that Krispy Kreme study - could lead to a PhD.

 

So I came up with my own conclusions that seem just as valid given the stats that these authors have come up with.

 

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to attend Fourth of July Parades when it rains (since there is no change from rain to non-rain days for Democrats, that suggests that Democrats are always there, rain or shine, and Republicans are not).

 

There is a higher chance of 4th of July rains in Democratic heavy areas than there is in Republican heavy areas.

 

Republicans are more likely to claim that Patriotism is about being a Republican than Democrats are.

 

Even Harvard University hopes to get a positive mention by Fox News.

 

Thanks, eisely - I haven't chuckled this much over an "academic" paper since reading a friends Intro to Lit paper on the important themes to be found in the Ian Fleming's James Bond books.

 

 

[packsaddle]

GAD!!!! Calico's comment stimulated me to read this thing as well. Eisely, where do you get that 'scientific' aspect of this paper? Anyone who is the least bit skeptical about global warming ought to be able to tear this study a new one with ease. Calico has it right. If anything, this paper confirms Mark Twain's opinion about the three types of lies.

 

At the beginning of their methods section they state,

"The ideal experiment to estimate the effects of Fourth of July would be to allocate participation in the event randomly to some individuals and not to others, and then compare preferences and behavior across the two groups. In the absence of such evidence, and because we cannot audit actual participation nor control for unobserved factors likely to motivate those who join the festivities, it is difficult to measure the impact of celebrating Fourth of July."

 

In other words even in their distorted idea of what an experiment IS, they can't even do that. And then,

"The key innovation of this study is to exploit random day-to-day variation in precipitation to estimate the effect of Fourth of July celebrations." ...the effect being voter participation and political identity far into the future. Anyone who thinks this is anything more than an attempt to find weak statistical trends in a massive dataset is ready for a Harvard degree in sociology or psychology, definitely parapsychology. But NOT science.

 

One of the mandatory regression assumptions is equality of variance or 'homoskedasticity' in the arcane language of statisticians. They admit that even for their primary independent variable, "The challenge faced when implementing this idea in a regression framework concerns estimating the likelihood of rain on a specific Fourth of July for each cohort born between 1920 and 1990. If the probability of rain would be constant across years at a given geographic location, the problem could be solved by simply using fixed effects for the proper geographic identifier, such as the county. This is insufficient, however, as the likelihood of Fourth of July rain has decreased over time (results not shown)."

 

To address this problem they add variables to bring the variance more in line with the regression assumption. This also increases the variance. However, in that last sentence in the quote, if the global warming skeptics don't get nervous, then their neurons are just not firing at all.

 

The very next line ought to seal the deal, "Hence, even conditional on county, climate change has lead [sic] to earlier cohorts experiencing more rainy Fourth of Julys on average than later cohort."

Wow! Climate change has turned us into Republicans.

 

As Calico stated, this should not make it past the initial screening of a scientific journal.

Near the end of their introduction they state, "...despite extensive sociological research on rituals there are no empirical studies using causal inference to investigate the transitory and lasting importance of national days in general, and Fourth of July in particular."

And I would say there still aren't, as confirmed by their statement near the end of their conclusions,

"While it is reasonable to assume that our findings are driven by variation in participation as captured by rainfall," (I'm dubious of this claim) "...this is something we cannot establish empirically given our methodological design."

Indeed.

[eisely]

Let me clarify. I suppose I should have put the word scientific in scare quotes. I consider this thing to be a mockery of legitimate science.

[Tampa Turtle]

Come on guys its academia --that's how they talk. I used to be an academic.

 

I attended the Kennedy School and thought it was pretty good; however Harvard is it's own little universe all it's own.

 

And yes I am a Democrat and a liberal. I must add I also always display my flag, attend patriotic celebrations, and have family in the military. I mean you CAN be a Democrat, go to church,and love your country.

 

Besides SOMEBODY had to teach the American Labor MB!

[BS-87]

Looks like even Harvard agrees that loving America makes you a Republican.

 

The more accurate study would probably lump Patriotic folk into the TEA Party. This doesn't mean they like voting Republican, it just means they feel compelled to vote against liberals. Liberals have been slowly killing us with socialism from interstates to mandates and welfare to bailouts.

 

If you love America, you probably just don't like the idea of its most vital document being subverted and perversely interpreted by an ever-growing government.

[CalicoPenn]

Not the same conclusion I come to BS. The conclusion I come to is "being a wimp about rain makes you a Republican"

[Tampa Turtle]

The Harvard KSG faculty even has Republicans-they just never get tenure!

 

Also I am scared of rain and still a democrat. It makes campouts scary with the wet socks and all.

[SSScout]

July 4, 2011. Rockville MD. The football field at the Community College was , as usual, full of lawn chairs, kids running around, fried chicken and watermelon. We arrived about 6:30pm. Visited with friends, ate coleslaw and greenbean casserole,too. Barbershop melodies, Brass quintet,

Martial music, flag ceremony and lots of folks giggling and talking during the "O Say Can You See". It threatened rain, then sprinkled, umbrellas up then down. Fireworks were started early, but no real rain ensued. Music was better coordinated with light show and Kabooms than in past years. A really good show, and "free"! We walked to our friends home, and watched hundreds of cars idling , waiting their turn to leave the big parking lot.

 

No discernable difference in the size or political persuasion of the crowd, this year vs last.

I still don't know the connection between the "Overture of 1812" and the commemoration of the founding of our nation.

"This year, a safe and sane Bastille Day".

[packsaddle]

Peter Tchaikovsky studied music at Harvard in 1812, a couple of years before he witnessed our nation's valiant fighting men gloriously kicking the stuffing out of the British who made a vain attempt to invade our capital. The Overture commemorates our great victory.

 

(source: The Ronald Reagan book of Fractured American History)

 

Edit: did I mention that pizza was also invented at Harvard about this same time? The income from this patent was the beginning of their endowment.(This message has been edited by packsaddle)

[SSScout]

Ah... That explains it.

 

Charlie Brown: "If these historic facts are so little known, how come you know them?"

Lucy: (looks around, then whispers in Charlie Brown's ear) " I make'm up."