Election

[packsaddle]

OK, just had breakfast, time for an experiment to see if this forum has been officially closed or not.

 

Last night I sat at dinner with the president of the University of Tikrit and some of his deans and listened to a address given by one the US top authorities on Iranian history and politics. He gave a synopsis of the recent history starting with an insider view of the recent 'election'. I thought I'd share a couple of things that you may not have heard.

 

First, he was unequivocal that the election was stolen. And he presented evidence, albeit circumstantial, with one exception. He also described the way it was stolen as cavalier (my term for it).

 

Here's a little of what he said.

First, within a couple of hours of the close of the polls, the supreme leader of this theocracy was informed that the early indications were that the opposition had won in a near landslide. The supreme leader, Khamenei, approved this. Within a very short time, the top aids and officials of the opposition were arrested and it was announced, just a little over 2 hours after the polls closed, that Ahmadinejad had won by a margin of 63%. Khamenei approved.

This was the direct evidence. The circumstantial evidence comes from this as well. First, there has never been an election in Iran in which up to 140% of registered voters actually turned out.

Second, there has never been an election in Iran in which this many people had voted in which the vote count had been announced in even a couple of days, much less 2 or 3 hours.

Third, there has never been an election in Iran in which the early margin of victory, 63%, was constant throughout the remaining vote count.

And last, there has never been an election in Iran in which it has been possible to certify a final vote count in only 24 hours.

 

The conservatives stole the election. The speaker's opinion was that it is too early in Iran's political life for this kind of opposition to succeed. He predicted that this marks a harder line by Ahmadinejad and his master, the supreme leader. It will be quite something to watch.

 

In questions he brushed aside concerns over nuclear weapons. As I have always thought, Iran will get them and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it. Now I'm curious to see if this forum is still alive. Have a nice day!

 

Edited Part: As Frankenstein said, "It's Alive!"(This message has been edited by packsaddle)

[vol_scouter]

Pack,

 

I have wondered if this forum has been shut down as well. The talk that you describe provides interesting insights as do your comments. One must hope that the people can obtain the rightful outcome. I doubt it since they do not have the right to bear arms.

[evmori]

I'm still here! I just figured there was nothing to banter around!

[mdlscouting]

Well,considering that even if it had been a "fair" election, the 260ish candidates that wanted to run were limited to (I think) 4 by the Mullahs... Even if it had been a fair count, it was still an unfair election.

[Lisabob]

Pack, what are you hearing (if anything) about supporters of the other official candidates besides Ahmadinejad & Mousavi? Are they leaning one way or another? Most of what we're hearing in the US is about the two principles, but I wonder about how other factions are lining up.

[Eamonn]

Still here and still Twittering.

What else can a twit do?

 

Can't say that I'm up on everything that has gone on and is going on in Iran.

I do think that the outcome of the election just over a week back sounds a little fishy.

Have been more than a little surprised that many of the demonstrations have been allowed. Maybe allowed isn't the right word? But not sure what is the right word?

I do have to wonder if the Brits and the Americans are doing something to fuel what is going on? I don't think the Brits or the Americans are responsible, but have a sneaky suspicion they both might be stirring the pot.

Seeing photos of people being beaten and killed on the streets is very upsetting.

I'm glad that I'm not tasked with trying to sort out what is going on in that part of the world.

I wouldn't know where to start.

Seems to be far too many loose cannons. Way too much emotion and when religion gets thrown in the pot???

What will be the final outcome?

Again I don't know.

But I tend to think that it's going to be like The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.

Maybe in time things will change? But I don't see it happening now.

Eamonn.

 

[packsaddle]

I'm pretty tired from a long day and very ready to sleep but I'll send a quick response. Yeah, like Ed I had figured too, that there just wasn't much to discuss. But I wasn't sure so I decided to open this thread as an experiment.

 

I guess Lisabob has asked the only real question so far. I do want to respond to Eamonn quickly and say that there will be plenty enough of claims that we are meddling without actually doing it. If we actually did meddle and got caught, that would be extremely damaging and for what? Read on...

Lisa I know I'm way out of my field, especially after listening to the conversations among people around here who really know what they're talking about. The discussion is almost unanimous that this regime is not going to fall. It is almost unanimous that while the election was stolen, it will remain stolen. The uncertainty is associated with how long this unrest will last, where it will lead, and if it intensifies, what the effect of that will be. The consensus is very unsettling...that a really strong and long period of protest, presenting a real challenge to the regime, will actually cause it to harden even more thus delaying or closing some future diplomatic or political options to the geopolitical problems Iran poses. As you recognize, this is a potential lose/lose situation if these discussions are correct in their analysis.

 

This is also underscored by the fact that the only really credible opposition at this time is mobilized by Mousavi. The discussions have not mentioned any of the other opposition leaders. The discussions are sanguine about the prospect that (with respect to the outside world) the difference between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad is not very large. He is also fairly conservative overall. If Mousavi did become installed as president, he would still be the virtual puppet of the theocracy and there is little difference in real terms between his stand toward the outside world than Ahmadinejad (I have no idea if he also denies the Holocaust though). As a policy conundrum: a huge effort to get this opposition leader rightfully elected might not provide much net benefit to the rest of the world. Hence the lose/lose possibility.

The discussions eventually concede that there is almost nothing that can be done from the outside anyway, about the election, nuclear weapons, or anything else really, without risking armed conflict. So they wring their hands, stay glued to cell phones and CNN and, like the rest of us, hope for the best for the Iranian people.

 

Footnote, the Iraqi educators are watching and listening to all this in almost complete silence. Tikrit was Saddam's home town and it is majority Sunni on the edge of a Shiite sea. They can stare at the abyss that could occur if Iraq becomes unstable and follows a path like the one Iran took. These guys are highly intelligent, highly educated people. You can practically see the wheels turning.

 

One more footnote, it is embarrassing to see little children sitting in parks here and there reading books. In English. We, as a society, are so smug. I fear we'll pay dearly for it eventually.

 

Edited part: I'll add a personal observation - if the Iranian people, on their own, challenge the regime and get it changed, I support them in their struggle. Such a success could give them a taste of self-determination that eventually could challenge the conservatives and the theocracy itself. That would be very good. Nevertheless, I understand that I'm just a hopeful romantic. (This message has been edited by packsaddle)

[CalicoPenn]

I find it ironic that is was a student uprising that brought the Mullah's to power and now the Mullah's are attempting to crush a student uprising.

 

I think there may be far more going on behind the scenes that we will ever be made fully aware of. For the Ahmadinejad government to appear to defy the Supreme Leader who may have already approved the notion that the opposition had won by declaring victory and cracking down on protests suggests to me that Ahmadinejad may have some powerful friends in the Assembly of Experts (which is the group that elects the Supreme Leader and has the power to dismiss the Supreme Leader) who intervened with the Supreme Leader and convinced him to accept Ahmadinijad as being re-elected. I'm no expert on Irania politics but expect a new Supreme Leader to be elected within a year - that's my prediction.

[Beavah]

Me, I reckon I stand alongside the brave young people who struggle for freedom everywhere. Scoutin' is a worldwide endeavor, and as far as I'm concerned those Iranian students and teachers and workers wearin' green neckerchiefs and armbands are our fellow Scouts. They're in my prayers each night.

 

Close as I can tell, da essential element of da conflict is the religious debate amongst the Mehdi (Ayatollahs). Shiite Islam has always been more wary of church/state entanglements than da Sunnis, and what we're seein' now is a public manifestation of the struggle within that group. On one side, there's Khamenei and the ghost of Khomenei. On the other are Montazeri (Khomenei's original choice to succeed him), Rafsanjani and Iraqi Shiite leaders like Ali Sistani. If Khamenei were to die soon, it seems likely that his replacement would steer a different course, or that da position might be eliminated in favor of a council of clerics.

 

I don't think it matters much, though. Da college aged kids now are Iran's Baby Boom generation - the children born after the Iran-Iraq war who have grown up in da theocracy. Like our civil rights and anti-war protests in the 60's for our Baby Boomers, this will be their defining struggle. That either means that the theocracy is doomed, or that the theocracy will have to be willing to change to an open dictatorship and hold the population at gunpoint (which means da mullahs are doomed, because in an open dictatorship the Army will take power, not yield to the Mehdi). So in da long run, this marks at least the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic experiment.

 

Beavah

 

[scoutingagain]

"as far as I'm concerned those Iranian students and teachers and workers wearin' green neckerchiefs and armbands are our fellow Scouts. They're in my prayers each night."

 

Yes. I find such bravery remarkable. Thousands of citzens take to the streets in direct defiance of their government to experess themselves knowing there is a possibility they could be shot at. As impressed as I am and I hope for the Iranian people, I'm afraid this step toward democracy in Iran will go as far as Tien Men Square did in China. It has pulled the veil of any pretense of democracy off the face of the Iranian govt though. At it's heart it's a brutal repressive regime and there is little hiding it. Not that we didn't know that before, but now there is clear evidence to their own people. It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

SA