The Economy...

[Lisabob]

Yikes, check this out - some schools in Minnesota are planning to move to a 4 day schedule, reducing annual instructional time by 23 DAYS, just to pay the rising cost of fuel for buses. If that's not an indication of economic hard times, I don't know what is.

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/G/GAS_PRICES_SCHOOL_BUSES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

 

[GernBlansten]

No free ride eh?

Tip of the iceberg. Wait till you have to pay $5 for a head of lettuce.

Another good reading...The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire.

[scoutingagain]

I'll leave the discussion of gas prices alone for now except as I've stated before I'm in the same camp as Gern.

 

As far as the economy goes, while I accept certain areas are harder hit than others, I continue to be suprised by the resiliency of the economy. It actually grew last quarter, although at an anemic less than 1% rate. Employment overall nationally is holding up suprisingly well. My commute still sucks because not enough companies have laid people off yet and they still clog the highways getting in and out of the city and it seems worse than it was last year. They tell me ridership is up on public transportation but I don't see that on the road. During the last really bad recession the commute was much easier.

 

The easy money is gone. You can't make quick capital appreciation in real estate or the stock market like the 80's and 90's. The oil speculation thing seems like it has topped out for the short term. Seems like to make money you actually have to work. I feel really bad for the house flippers and day traders.

 

On the other hand I don't believe we've seen the full effect of oil prices filter through the economy yet. Dow Chemical just announced across the board 20% price increases to offset increased energy costs.(The CEO had interesting things to say about the role of our government and energy prices. Basically our government has failed us with a lack of any kind of enery policy or strategy and now we're paying the piper. Interesting statement for a CEO of a company operating in a free market.) What they make is in everything. Food, Plastics, Hard Goods. We'll all be paying more for just about everything, and it won't be just because the government is printing more money.

 

On the plus side, the increases in oil and traditional enery sources presents hugh opportunities for clever folks to come up with alternatives. At $4.00/gallon(Europe is paying $8.00/gal so don't feel bad.) the clever folks really have an incentive to put their thinking caps on to come up with alternatives. Those with good ideas and implementation will get rich. Virtually every town around here, especially those on the coast line are looking at putting up windmills. They're popping up all over the place.

 

While one may need a decent sized vehicle to cart scouts and equipment around once a month, your day to day commute and around town errands could be served with a plug in hybride that in many circumstance won't even need gas. Plug-ins will be available probably next year. You can already buy kits to convert a Prius or other hy-brid to a plug in. Sorry they don't go Vroom Vroom like a big 6 liter V8. Maybe they could add a chip that sent a noise through the radio speakers for those that need that kind of thing.

 

Just as we did in the late '70s and early '80s the market will develop energy infrastructure to reduce dependance on oil and we'll start all over.

 

Me, I chuckle as I cruise along in my $8000 used Hyundai, past the big crew cabs going 55 mph trying to squeeze out a few more mpgs. Sorry OGE, couldn't afford an xB. Drove to Philly and back over the weekend (700miles) using less than 18 gallons.

 

The other really good thing is this year on the harbor I expect to see far fewer of the big sport fishing boats nocking around my little sailboat. There are For Sale signs on all kinds of big power boats up and down the coast. Even if they do get in the water I'm confident most owners won't be able to take 'em off the dock, leaving me and my fellow rag boaters in peace on the high seas.

 

My 2 cents or0.005 gals of gas.

 

SA

[GernBlansten]

Call me a liberal, communist, socialist or hedonist, but one positive role of government is to use its collective power to push technological advances for the good of the people. That has not been done in the energy realm. It has been left up to market forces. Well, oil has been so cheap that it wasn't practical to make a profit developing new technology, even though the writing was on the wall long ago. Without government support like NASA got during the moon shots, there was very little research done. So that's why I welcome this crisis, it will finally become profitable to explore alternative energy. The market will fill this need, it will just take some pain and time to get there now.

Now, where did I put that flag pin?

[skeptic]

scoutingagain;

 

Here in SC, those big crew cabs and similar vehicles seem to not be doing too much slowing down, if my occasional freeway jaunt is any indication. I have a new Fit, and I cruise at 65-70, depending on the flow. Meanwhile, I get passed constantly by SUV's and monster trucks. Guess they have really good fuel resources. Or, they are simply not aware of anything beyond their immediate gratification.

 

Oh well, I can still barely fill up an empty tank on $40; lol, what else can you do?

[Mr. Boyce]

GernBlansten: I agree with you wholeheartedly. For years, people in the auto industry have neglected to put together the right technologies; people in the energy industry have moved tepidly. The problems have always been foreseeable.

 

Believe it or not, I'm optimistic that we can locate new and better energy sources. We may even, believe it or not, find some better alternative to the gasoline engine. And even better would be if we finally looked at the cards we are holding and said, "hey, just building roads for cars isn't going to solve our basic transportation needs."

 

I am not a socialist or a liberal, but I am someone who believes large companies can be death to innovation, new technologies and new and better products.

[GernBlansten]

Yup, drop that 3 ton rig from 75 down to the double nickle and you will save 20% fuel right away. Of course, the type of folk who really want to commute in an SUV or crew cab don't like to be told that.

 

Anyone seen "Who Killed the Electric Car?". Great documentary. All the major car companies were able to produce an electric car when California passed legislation requiring that 10% of the fleet needed to be zero emission. The few lucky folk that got them, loved them. But the car companies didn't like them. Zero maintenance. Only let you lease them too. Couldn't buy them. Big oil and Detroit/Tokyo lobbied heavily to have the legislation revoked and won. Shortly there after, all the cars were repossessed and crushed.

 

But, one of the culprits is the American consumer. We haven't demanded it yet. The only reason this brief episode in electric vehicles ever happened is because government required it. Once that went away, so did the cars. Now with sky rocketing gas prices and no foreseeable end to it, consumers are now demanding it, and Detroit/Tokyo is responding. This year, GM has several hybrid models. Next year, we will have plug-in hybrids. In two years, full EVs. Watch for companies to install recharge stations for their employees. Parking meters to have pay2charge outlets.

 

The worst thing that can happen now, is for gas prices to drop. If they do, Americans will go back to their SUVs and old ways. The market for EVs and hybrids will dry up. We will delay the inevitable for a few more years.

[packsaddle]

I'm with Gern on this. I show that video to students in my course, "Environment, Energy, and Society". Excellent documentary. I'm particularly struck by the profound symbolism of Reagan removing the solar panels. The entire country did the same thing, figuratively speaking.

 

I just spent a few weeks in a country where the annual per capita income is about $3000. Gasoline is about $8 per gallon. When I returned (after doing my Mr. Bean thing of attempting to drive on the wrong side of the road ), I reacted to the gas prices with amazement at how cheap it is in the States. A matter of perspective I guess, but I suggest that wetting the bed about prices here will get little sympathy elsewhere in the world.

The infant mortality of that country is a little more than twice ours but once that is factored out, their life expectancy is about the same as ours. If there is a morbidly obese person in that country, I never saw them (this, of course, neglects the people waddling off the cruise ships and venturing maybe 200 feet into the town to buy cheap Chinese souvenirs, returning quickly to air-conditioned comfort). The island people are among the most fit people I have ever met. They walk most places, buses are readily available, and they are truly peaceful and happy. Paradise.

 

As soon as I set foot in San Juan on the return trip, I observed anger, impatience, and conspicuous consumption.

We turned away from conservation in 1980 and embraced the unseen hand and the magic of the free market. Isn't it fair to receive the consequences of the market that we created and embraced? Without all the whining and complaining?

 

Like Gern, I also own a gas guzzler. Actually two of them. I knew that prices would increase (who didn't?). They don't consume any fuel whatsoever if I don't drive them. So I use them for the times when they are truly needed.

If it costs too much to do that long commute (whatever), then don't do it. Otherwise be content in the fact that the market is operating the way it is supposed to and prepare to pay the price. Just don't pretend to be surprised or outraged at the inevitable.

[Gold Winger]

"up, drop that 3 ton rig from 75 down to the double nickle and you will save 20% fuel right away."

 

Don't know about that. I drive a 5,000 lb chunk of American iron and I get 25 mpg on the highway at 75 mph. If I do 60 mph, I still get about 25 mpg.

 

A 500 mile trip at 60 mph will take a little more than 8 hours. At 75 mph it will take about 6.5 hours. What's an hour and a half worth?

 

 

[FScouter]

The easiest way to boost mileage is to replace your wheels with smaller diameter wheels. You can drive faster AND get better mileage.

[GaHillBilly]

"The easiest way to boost mileage is to replace your wheels with smaller diameter wheels. You can drive faster AND get better mileage."

 

FScouter, I hope you realize that there are plenty of folks out there that will not realize that you are joking! (I trust that you ARE joking! But, I'm a little worried. When I Googled around about to verify that odometers worked as I thought, I discovered that there are quite a few car owners, and particularly Prius owners, who are apparently quite serious about such suggestions.)

 

Anyhow, smaller wheels -- or lower profile tires -- on most vehicles will not necessarily increase your apparent speed, though they will increase your apparent gas mileage.

 

Of course, once you make such a modification, you'll need to use a GPS to determine your ACTUAL speed, and ACTUAL gas mileage, since neither your odometer nor your speedometer will read accurately any longer.

 

GaHillBilly

[GernBlansten]

GW, your mileage may vary.

[Gold Winger]

"GW, your mileage may vary."

 

Only if I slow down so the trans doesn't go into OD. At 80 mph, my engine is turning 2000 RPM. Below 70, it drops out of OD and the impulse engines kick in.