Obama and Huckabee (and the rest too)

[packsaddle]

Well, after last night's debate, I have to send Paul back to Tralfamador or someplace. McCain looks even better than before and Romney even emptier, a vapid, empty persona. I think Huckabee has hit his peak. Didn't watch the Dems.

John-in-KC, unless you suspect something, heh, heh, I think most of Giuliani's skeletons are OUT of the closet and in fairly public view.

I could still live with him though. I kind of like that edgy sense of humor. And I think he and McCain have the most realistic grasp of the immigration problem and solutions.

[local1400]

Well here is the report from the Granite State you all want. Guiliani was a last second no-show at a rally(?) for him last week. Romney is from Massachusetts and those of us who live in Bostons "playground" of palacial vacation cottages can't afford him as Pres. It seems for the Dems, a 3 way tie exists between Clinton, Edwards, and Osama. All have campaigned extensively. And why shouldn't NH get the 1st Primary? We are, after all, one of the 13 original colonies (9th to ratify the Constitution, on June 21, 1788), and is the birthplace of Daniel Webster and Franklin Pierce. If I had to pick to for the big dance, I would say Clinton and McCain will get the Primaries here. But the true Presidential winner will be decided at 12:01 am on Election day by the 7 residents of Dixville Notch, NH.

[Lisabob]

Err, you meant OBama, right there local?

[GernBlansten]

Well his middle name is Hussien isn't it?

[Gonzo1]

Here's part of the problem: The mainstream media will talk up a candidate and all of a sudden, that candidate sees a rise in the polls. The media hyped up Huckabee and he got a rise. The media hyped up Romney, he got a rise in the polls. Since the basically ignores Richardson, Kucinich, Thompson, Biden, Dodd, and the rest, the rest don't get air time and they go unnoticed in the polls.

 

Every senator looks in the mirror and sees a president staring back. But, the electorate does not like electing senators, we like people who govern like governors and mayors.

 

Too bad both parties had to change up the schedule of primaries, we'll know too eary who the likely nominee will be by March.

 

The unknown factor will be "third party" candidates like Bloomberg who would likely hand over the election to a democrat.

 

Vote and the choice is yours, don't vote, and the choice is mine.

 

Go Fred!

 

Gonzo

[local1400]

Well it is early still, but so far my predictions are right on. My man Edwards is faltering though. Gonzo, sorry about Fred.

[Gonzo1]

Thanks Local,

Fred may have some time to bounce back in SC and Super Tuesday.

 

[packsaddle]

In order to bounce usually requires some previous significantly higher position. At least that's the way it works in basketball.

Looks like the Dems are going to have a tough contest in the long haul. And it looks like Huckabee really IS defined by his faith. I was struck by the hypocrisy he displayed telling his supporters to shovel snow into the driveways of their neighbors who don't support him. God and global warming must have melted it.

SC might be interesting although insignificant in terms of numbers. Oh well back to sleep.

[scoutingagain]

"God and global warming must have melted it. "

 

Temps were in the mid to upper 50's(near record highs) and sunny & dry accross the state yesterday. Also record voter turnout.

 

The results really throw both parties into what looks like a process where we won't have a clue who might be the nominees until Feb 5 at the earliest. Personally I think the Dems will take their race to the convention. For the Republicans, it's wide open again. Fred, Rudi, Mitt and the rest are all counting on later races. McCain swept the New England State's primaries 8 years ago, but still lost the nomination to Bush.

 

Personally I think Mitt should pack it in. If he wants to burn his personal fortune, there are more productive endeavors. He was a decent Governor of MA, and I believe he's probably a good manager and administrator, but many Massachusetts Republicans, who for the most part are fairly moderate, feel betrayed by his convienient enlightenment on social issues. He may not even win the MA primary. Virtually everyone in the State GOP establishment have endorsed someone other than Mitt.

 

SA

 

[eolesen]

I don't see McCain, Huckabee, Paul lasting past Super Tuesday. I see it coming down to Romney and Guiliani, and Hillary vs. Obama.

 

Remember, Rudy wound up with 10% of the Iowa vote without setting foot in the state.

[GernBlansten]

Well its fitting the Rudy got between 9 and 11 percent of the vote.

[Hunt]

Here's my inside-the-Beltway take on the candidates:

Dems:

Hillary: Not inevitable any more, but the Clintons know how to campaign and can't be underestimated. She also has the advantage that if other candidates beat up on her too much, women will go out and vote for her (I think this is what happened in NH.) Odds of getting the nomination: Even

Obama: Inspirational speaker, with a life story that fits what many Americans would like to think America is. Will get lots of younger voters. Doesn't seem to have much dirty laundry other than what he admitted himself in his book. Odds: Even.

Edwards: Clearest message, populist appeal. May catch fire in the South, but I don't think so. Big downside: his wife will almost certainly die in the next four years, which America does not need to go through. Odds: 3-to-1 against.

Dennis Kucinich: Uh, yeah. Odds: 500-to-1 against.

Mike Gravel: Is he still in it? If so, odds worse than Kucinich.

Repubs:

McCain: Surging because of weakness of other candidates. Likely to be picked up by Republican mainstream because they won't want Huckabee. Odds: Even

Huckabee: Will continue to be much stronger than expected because (a) only candidate evangelicals will strongly support (b) seems like a pretty nice guy. Assuming he makes no stupid mistakes, has a real shot. Odds: 2-to-1.

Romney: Seems to be fading, but would generally be most appealing to mainstream, business-obsessed party members. Inability to appeal to evangelicals probably was underestimated. Odds: 3-to-1.

Giuliani: Also fading. What Republicans, exactly, does he appeal to? His personal life will also sink him, especially with religious voters. Odds: 5-to-1.

Thompson: Never got started. Never will get started. Odds: 10-to-1.

Paul: Will be in it until the end, and will get a surprising number of votes. Will not win in any state. Odds: 100-to-1.

 

My prediction: the election will be Obama vs. McCain, and Obama will win. Putting aside policy, experience, and everything else, the voters will opt for what appears to be a major change in the status quo. (Additional prediction: Bloomberg will stay out.)

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

I think Huckabee's remark about amending the constitution to conform to (his) god's standards qualifies as a stupid mistake...

[John-in-KC]

Lisa,

 

Well, today's the day in your neck of the woods.

 

When the dust settles, would you be willing to give us your opinion on what happened? I think I'll believe you much more than MSNBC...

 

Hunt,

 

Thanks for the rundown. It'll be interesting to revisit it in July and again in November

[raisinemright]

Hunt,

 

You had a pretty good overview of the candidates. I have some disagreement with you on Huckabee. I hang out in some evangelical circles and see little support for Huckabee.

 

I'm a Thompson guy myself and voted for him in Michigan this morning. He's not really coming forward in the polls as I hoped he would but I can still hope.

 

Clinton and Obama is an interesting race. I could see them tearing each other to shreds and have Edwards sneak past them both. I was kind of disappointed to see Richardson drop so early as he was the most qualified candidate the dem's had this year.