BSA membership drops by over 400,000 in 2005

[jkhny]

Reputed Feb 28, 2006 numbers

 

Cub Scouts - 1,497,362

Boy Scouts - 837,101

Venturing - 222,404

 

Total Traditional 2,556,867

 

Learning for Life 1,616,223

 

Total Youth 4,173,090

 

 

Simply passing on. If accurate, that 2.6 million is pretty lame, BSA is back to what, 1950 membership in Scouting?

 

You can't blame it all on "changing times"

[evmori]

The numbers for the end of March show a drop of less than half of what Merlyn's "reliable" source has.

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Hey Ed, you need to compare end-of-month with same end-of-month, due to the BSA's rather creative membership counting method; note that jkhny's totals for end of February 2006 are even lower than the numbers I posted for end of December 2005. If you like, post your March 2006 numbers and we'll compare them to official BSA figures, either the membership totals at the end of 2004 or any official membership numbers that are more recent than that.

[evmori]

The numbers I have are for March 2006 & they are compared to March 2005 and there is a decline but it is less than 1/2 of what Merlyn posted from his "reliable" source. And yes they are different than the other sets of numbers posted here already. You need to remember membership numbers are dynamic. Different area charter at different times & there are new boys joining throughout the year.

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Ed, you still haven't compared end-of-year 2004 membership figures with end-of-year 2005 membership figures. By the way, what figures do you have for end of March, 2006?

[evmori]

Merlyn,

The numbers I have as of March 2006 show a total decrease of 177,000 or roughly 4%. And total unit down roughly 2%. Significantly different from your "reliable" source.

 

You seem to be missing the point. BSA membership is dynamic. It can change monthly. The key to looking at the numbers is to make sure they are the same time frame i.e. March 2005 to March 2006. And since these membership numbers are dynamic, getting caught up in 3 month old numbers if useless and pointless.

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Ed, you seem to think that if the difference between March 2005 and March 2006 is only 177,000, that it's somehow impossible that the difference between Dec 2004 and Dec 2005 can't be over 400,000. That simply isn't true - the only way to determine that is to compare the figures for Dec 2004 and 2005.

 

By the way, Ed, I've asked you to post the membership totals for March 2006 but you never do. I'm sure that's because total membership in March is even LOWER than the figures I posted. C'mon Ed, don't just post the difference, post the membership figures so they can be checked.

[evmori]

No Merlyn I don't think the difference I posted is 177,000. I know it is.

 

The membership numbers I have are just over four million total members. Like I posted, it is lower but the decrease is less than half of your "reliable" source.

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Ed, the only way to show my source is unreliable is to post official membership figures for end-of-year 2005. Putting "reliable" in quotes doesn't work. Claiming that the difference between March 2005 and March 2006 is 177,000 doesn't show that, either. What you need to do is compare official membership figures from end-of-year 2005.

[evmori]

My posting any membership numbers will neither add credibility or take away from the credibility of the numbers you posted. Why? They are from a different point in time.

 

Tell you what, Merlyn, you get your reliable source to supply you with membership numbers as of 3/31/2006 by Tigers, Total Cubs, Total Boy Scouts, Total LFL & grand total & then I will post what I have. How's that sound?

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Hey Ed, glad you agree that your March numbers don't affect the credibility of the numbers I posted for end of year 2005; your earlier post seemed to imply otherwise. I'll see if Dave can get March figures and we can compare them.

[evmori]

Hey Ed, glad you agree that your March numbers don't affect the credibility of the numbers I posted for end of year 2005; your earlier post seemed to imply otherwise.

 

That's not what I posted. What I posted was

 

My posting any membership numbers will neither add credibility or take away from the credibility of the numbers you posted. Why? They are from a different point in time.

 

I still doubt the credibility of your numbers for 2005.

 

Ed Mori

Troop 1

1 Peter 4:10

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

I know you doubt the credibility of those figures Ed; your claim of having figures from March doesn't affect the credibility of them.

[Merlyn_LeRoy]

Well Ed, Dave doesn't have anything more recent than the Feb 28, 2006 figures that jkhny already posted. How do your figures compare to those? I would think they'd be reasonably close if both set of figures are reasonably accurate.

[klflintoff]

I would like to either SEE or GET the raw data (spreadsheet) to look at it. At least totals, going back 5-10 years. Hopefully more detailed. Probably not available, but it would be interesting to look at trends based on urban/rural, census data (income and so on).

 

===> If someone could hook me up with this raw data, I would link it to census, zip code, and other data, and post it somewhere for us all to view and study.

 

There is another thread here discussing reasons for the decline in membership. Lots of possible reasons are given. My personal view: just like in economics, ALL factors matter to some degree. In my area I see the biggest factors as cost, sports and similar competing activities, and scouts not being viewed as "cool" as in the past.