Cancel pack overnighter due to weather?

[TigerLisa]

Our pack is scheduled for an overnight family campout this Saturday at a state campground at around 6000' elevation in tall pines and surrounded by mountains. Unfortunately, the NWS is forecasting chance of thunderstorms and 50% chance of precipitation beginning Saturday night. As Cubmaster trained in BALOO and Hazardous Weather, I feel like the ultimate responsibility for deciding whether to go ahead with the event lies with me and the Committee Chair, although obviously our event organizers will be in on the discussion. My feeling is that if the chance of precipitation or thunderstorms is 50% or more, the event should be canceled on Friday afternoon (tomorrow) and families notified. I would plan to send an e-mail to everyone tonight indicating what our thought process is so that people can be prepared. If the NWS is saying 25% chance or less, then I would consider going ahead with the event and having an emergency weather plan in place for once we get up there.

 

We'll have close to 80 people with kids ranging from Tigers up to Webelos. If they were all older kids, maybe on a Webelos-only camp out, I would think differently, but my gut tells me that with little kids along, we need to err more on the side of caution.

 

I'm wondering if this sounds reasonable...I get the feeling that some on the committee would like to go ahead and just deal with whatever weather comes up, but I know that is the wrong approach with Cub Scouts. Not that it is an overriding factor, but if we cancel by 5pm on Friday, we get back all but $7 of our reservation fees.

 

I have called our Council office and spoken to someone with a lot of Scout camping experience. She advised to be more cautious because of the age of the kids involved, but wouldn't really give a specific guideline. I guess I'm looking for a sanity check and advice on what guidelines others use. Also, what is the "gold standard" for weather sources to use? The NWS (weather.gov) paints a much more grim picture of the situation than accuweather.com does.

[dg98adams]

Is there a location nearby for under-roof shelter (does not have to be enclosed). I'd also consider how long the weather might last.

 

1 hour doable, 3-4 hours would push cubs/parents in a cramped shelter.

 

Do you have a plan B camp site (something lower with indoor shelter if needed)?

 

(This message has been edited by dg98adams)

[Gary_Miller]

I think you on the right track.

 

Its better to cancel the outing and have nothing happen, than it is to not cancel have a big storm come in which would cause for everyone having a bad time or worse yet someone getting hurt or killed.

 

Error on the side of caution.

 

 

[DYB-Mike]

Hi Tiger Lisa,

 

If the weather report is so ominous that it is giving you pause then I would cancel the event.

 

While the safety concerns are paramount, theres another angle to consider: a miserable, wet campout may turn off inexperienced Cub Scouts and also many parents, leading perhaps to some drop-outs.

 

Do you have any money invested in food? If you have a good sized meeting space maybe you could do a camp-in. If you have food that needs to be grilled you could borrow a couple of grills and let those hearty committee folks stand out in the rain and cook.

 

YIS

Mike

 

[TigerLisa]

Our meeting space is at the elementary school where we are chartered, and they require 30 days notice, so that is not an alternative. We are trying to figure out if we have an alternate space in town to try and salvage some of the activities. Food shopping is tomorrow, so we should be able to make a decision before then. This is peak camping season, so a plan B campsite for 80 people at lower elevation (and less storm likelihood) is out of the question. There is no under roof shelter that I know of at this campground.

 

Yes, I was also thinking of new campers getting turned off about the whole thing if it's not a good experience. Thank you for the comments, suggestions and questions...it's helping me to understand if we have considered everything before we make a decision.

 

 

[AnaMaria]

We've discussed similar issues in the past. I don't have time to look for the thread, but there was one I initiated in April/May. Good luck. I know it's hard to be the one making the ultimate decision.

[TigerLisa]

AnaMaria, I tried searching as far back as Jan. 2009 but couldn't find a similar question...I guess I didn't use the right search terms! Yes, it's hard to think about the disappointed kids, but imagining the possible worst-case scenarios makes it easier.

[Stosh]

When you have doubts about the situation, it's your common sense giving you the heads up!

 

Cancel and don't regret it. Your only other alternative is to ignore your gut feeling and if something goes wrong then you'll get to regret it for a long time.

 

Stosh

[AnaMaria]

Weather & camping - your threshold of ok?

 

I dont' know how to link this back to the discussion, but this is the title of the initial post in the thread.

[artjrk]

Unlike many here are saying, I say go ahead with the event. Have a emergency plan in case of extreme foul weather. (ie in the event of lightning storm have all families move to their vehicles for the duration.) But from your description of the forecast, I see no major need for concern. Don't let the fact that they are Cub Scouts concern you. They will be fine. It's the new parents who have more worries, that you will have to deal with. I have been on Cub overnighters in torrential downpours. The cubs adapt and still have fun and the event is more memorable.

[TigerLisa]

The good news is that the forecast improves slightly every few hours...hopefully by tomorrow, I'll be thinking how silly it was that I had concerns. Thanks everyone for your feedback.

[shortridge]

Good job on keeping an eye on things and working on a backup plan. You're a very conscientious Scouter!

 

FWIW, this was the older thread ... http://www.scouter.com/forums/viewThread.asp?threadID=275366

 

As an alternative, if the forecast is lousy and you do cancel, you might decide to let folks know that if the weather miraculously turns out OK, that some people will be gathering for a low-key daytime event at the same location - a pack hike, an I-spy nature walk, etc.

[Beavah]

Yah, 50% chance of weather on an outlook forecast strikes me as being minimal risk, eh? Yeh just can't rely at all on thunderstorm forecasts more than 6 hours out, and on weather in general more than 24 hours out. In many parts of da country, what you're talking about wouldn't be considered in the least as a reason to cancel.

 

I think this is like any judgment call, eh? You need to go ask somebody in your area who has the experience with weather and camping to make the judgment, not take it on yourself because yeh did a weak online training module. Same as with whether a river is too high to go paddling or avalanche conditions are too high to go snowshoeing or whether a rock climbing location is appropriate for kids. Go ask someone who really understands da weather in your area and family camping.

 

Beavah

 

[TigerLisa]

Beavah, thanks for your input. I did ask the person I felt was the most experienced local Scout leader/camper in our Council office, and her opinion was, "If I saw 50% chance of thunderstorms, I wouldn't even be considering taking Tiger Cubs up there camping." That's part of the reason I'm so conflicted about this.

[Beavah]

I did ask the person I felt was the most experienced local Scout leader/camper in our Council office

 

Since when are there ever experienced leaders or campers working in da council office .

 

That's only half a joke, eh? Better off looking for da volunteers who are working with kids or da local outfitters.

 

B