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Everything posted by Eagle1993
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Its early April. I expect by end of May (7 weeks from now) we will have many of those things in place. Perhaps not in all states, but enough that will allow many summer camps to run. I could see those camps limit participants to only scouts from the state or within a limited range … but I would be surprised if 100% of camps are closed all summer. I would also expect dates in July and August are more likely to operate than June. I actually believe high adventure is a bigger risk. That brings in scouts throughout the country, including mixing scouts between high and low covid-19 areas. That seems to be a much bigger risk than having scouts within a specific region go to summer camp.
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Actually, Harvard agrees with @qwazse. Even Dr. Fauci talked about opening up summer camps yesterday (depending on the rate in May). Depending on seasonality, the models show that social distancing occurring between 25 percent and 75 percent of the time would both build immunity and keep the health care system from overloading. As time passes and more of the population gains immunity, they said, the restrictive episodes could be shorter, with longer intervals between them. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/how-to-prevent-overwhelming-hospitals-and-build-immunity/
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I'll add one more comment. Only 1 of our 50 scouts going to summer camp dropped out due to Covid-19 (the rest already paid). So, parents & scouts are more than willing to go if it is open. I think that could change if our area infection rate shoots up, but so far so good...
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I think its too early to know for sure. Unless you are willing to do a 18 month to 2 year mandatory lock down of the entire country (until a vaccine is available), some activities will reopen with Covid-19 infections still out there. I expect this may be a state by state call based upon density of the virus in their community. What we need is sufficient testing to really determine the density of the infected in each community and then appropriate guidelines based upon that density. It could definitely mean limiting camps to local scouts (with xx miles) to prevent spread between communities. It could mean facemasks and end of some activities (big group fire ceremonies, dining halls and even water front). We go to a patrol cooking camp and our troop has discussed use of biodegradable utensils (no personal KP), additional monitoring/instructions of KP, additional monitoring/instructions for hand washing, face masks, etc. The only real way out of this is a vaccine and there is no way the country will shut down fully until that is available (which in best case in large volumes would be 18 months to 2 years). So, we will need to live with this and find ways to limit risk. If summer camp is open, I'll be there with my Troop. We will work to minimize risk. If they close camp, I'm ok with that call. I just hope they can ramp up testing further to see where this is really spreading and take appropriate action. I tend to agree this summer may be too soon to have all of this in place … but one can hope.
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Predicting Nationwide Shutdown Continues to Sept.
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
I doubt a nationwide shutdown will occur until September. This will go to a state by state, city by city call. Many countries, including China, are operating with the virus. This is a pause while we catch up on testing to find out what areas are actually hit hard. Areas not hit hard will release and monitor. If the testing shows cases rise above a certain level, they shut down again. I would expect limits, but most scout camps are probably <1000 people, so hopefully they could go on. Just a guess … probably more hope … of what will happen. I do agree that many units will fold, especially those that were on the brink. Perhaps there will be some sort of surge as well, especially if BSA can ramp up service aspects that could come out of this. -
What was interesting, is that we never placed a value on those paintings in our filings … just listed that we have them. I would be in favor of selling them if it helps protect some camps from sales. What I found interesting, is that for the first time I have read, an attorney representing victims said something could be protected. He likened it a bit to not touching "cherished religious relics". In terms of scouting, my "cherished religious relic" would be my summer camp I went to as a youth .. or perhaps Philmont … not a painting. Perhaps those outside the organization don't understand scouting if they think paintings should be protected but land disposed of.
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How about Proactive PR? Our Competition is taking shots.
Eagle1993 replied to RememberSchiff's topic in Issues & Politics
While I sometimes wish we would defend current practices more, I have to agree with @Cburkhardt. Trying to fight the narrative now is like spitting into the wind. We have to take our lumps. I was surprised to have a couple parents come up and vigorously (in anger) defend the BSA. I think BSA's response, "we believe you, we are upset about the sins of the past and we want you to come forward" works. In the short term, we will be hit, but after bankruptcy, we can start anew and while holding true to the scout oath & law. -
Suggest Councils that should be Combined
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
How does the Michigan Crossroads council work? It looks like an interesting structure 1 mega council, smaller service centers & multiple districts per service center. Does that result in a good balance between optimizing finances while still preventing the downsides of mega councils? What is the role of the service center vs council? -
Suggest Councils that should be Combined
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
This was mentioned in the article; however, that means Council assets (buildings, camps, investments) could be included. "Garabedian said individual councils could petition the bankruptcy judge to join BSA’s filing with a “channeling injunction” and their assets would be subject to being collateralized to pay into BSA’s victims’ compensation trust. " Note that courts have not been consistent on agreeing on which assets are unencumbered (just look at the Milwaukee Archdiocese cemetery fund case. My only point is that before we start suggesting mergers between councils, we need to get through bankruptcy (including councils). Let this settle out and then reform councils with the remaining assets. -
Suggest Councils that should be Combined
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
@HashTagScouts and @carebear3895 … I didn't even think of the increased nation fees on councils that will be coming, but you are right. There was a lawyer asking how the BSA plans to pay their massive legal fees given the income was relatively low. But I was thinking the state lawsuits that will be placed. This article below is simply one example. Both National BSA & council were sued in state court. National BSA was asked to be pulled from the lawsuit given the bankruptcy filing … but the lawsuit will continue against the council. https://www.seacoastonline.com/news/20200220/boy-scouts-file-for-bankruptcy-after-sex-abuse-lawsuits-how-will-this-impact-local-troops “Litigation will continue against the state councils in the (superior) courts,” Garabedian said. “Filing for bankruptcy stops civil litigation (against BSA), but it does not stop litigation against the (state) councils as separate corporations. With 1,000 to 5,000 plaintiffs, expect many state lawsuits … especially ones in states that have removed the statue of limitations … and many states are in the process of changing their laws. See below for a good summary for a reddit poster: The reorganizaiton plan includes plans for "Local Council Trust Contributions" and "Chartered Organization Trust Contributions" (Exhibits H and I). From DEBTORS’ INFORMATIONAL BRIEF Page 4 Page 6 Some local councils will be turning over financial data as part of the bankruptcy. See page 7 Look at the Illinois example .. lets say there are two councils (A and B). A has 20M of assets, B has 5M. Lets say B has 10 victims and A has 0. Why would A merge with B until B declares bankruptcy to clear out any possible judgements that would have hit the AB council after merger? -
Suggest Councils that should be Combined
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
I think the question is … will it be better to see each Council go bankrupt as they are structured now, or wait for them to merge, sell of property and go bankrupt? Illinois is a perfect example. Nearly every day, when listening to Chicago radio, I hear ads to file lawsuits given Illinois change to the statue of limitations they passed in 2019. They specifically mention scouts, hospitals, schools, etc. If the northern councils in Illinois are strong financially, they will be a target. So, will it be better for these 3 to merge, combine all the lawsuits against them, and go bankrupt together? Or, perhaps 1 or 2 could survive without bankruptcy. Not sure, but that should be the only driving force behind mergers at this time. Most settlements I have seen with the Catholic church show payouts averaging $1M per victim. BSA is estimating 1,000 to 5,000 victims, so $1B to $5B in a settlement. $1B means loss of all high adventure camps and national cash. $5B probably means all council camps are lost as well. Councils, just like National, needs to be focused on navigating bankruptcy. The lawyers suing the BSA want to liquidate everything. National, councils, units, charter orgs … everything. Churches are hard to sell ... but camp property is fairly easy, so I don't expect them to rest until they have their pound(s) of flesh. I really believe the next 3-4 years (I expect it will take that long), national, councils and charter orgs focus will be some sort of financial survival. The day to day program survival (recruiting, events, etc.) will be up to districts (who have no assets) and units (who are probably too small to sue). So, I think topics such as what units & districts should be doing during bankruptcy makes sense, but councils and National will be focused elsewhere. -
Suggest Councils that should be Combined
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
1000% agree. Unless I'm missing something, it would be incredibly stupid for councils to start merging now. Why would any financially strong council merge with a weaker one in the face of litigation? Depending on how the national bankruptcy shakes out, I could see lawyers going after councils and a series of bankruptcies there (or perhaps councils brought into the National bankruptcy). Now, post bankruptcies, I think it really depends on what is left of the BSA. If, as rumored, a lot of work will transfer from National to councils, then it probably makes sense for many council mergers. However, it seems too early to even consider given the litigation we are facing. -
Thanks for the feedback. The scout will be visiting to check out our Troop. I don't plan to contact the other SM at this time; however, I may soon. His feeder pack AOL den is also reaching out to possibly join our Troop. Single scouts moving between Troops happens from time to time. Entire dens, while that occurs, could flag that he needs to reach out and determine what the concern is. For now, I'll let the single scout decision play out.
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Here is Arrow WV, INCs latest 990. http://990.erieri.com/EINS/270441319/270441319_2017_0fcc3073.PDF They are claiming it is worth $385M (after depreciation).
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This is where the bankruptcy can get very large & complex. I also think it could damage the whole idea of charter organizations. When they start seeing various clubs, churches, etc. pulled into the bankruptcy, expect many COs to question keeping Troops & Packs. BSA should be ready for another model, similar to GSUSA, where councils directly charter units. I also think it is a bit early for nearly every council to essentially guarentee they are not going to be impacted by this lawsuit. If a council has plaintiffs, is located in a state that has no limit on statue of limitations & has big resources ... they will be a target. I understand why they are coming out strong on these statements, and support them, but they probably know there is signficant risk. The good news is that it seems like courts see Catholic Dioceses and Parishes as independent entities … making lawyers sue them individually and working on independent settlements. It seems to be dragging them out, but it also seems to allow most services to go uninterrupted ... perhaps a bit of light for us.
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Correctamundo. Do you think we can get out of this whole thing by transferring that "receivable" to the victim's fund? Good luck collecting on that. I also noted that they specifically noted that they did not include Oil & Gas Royalties or the Artwork - Original Rockwell paintings on their asset list. I wonder why they could do that.
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They are not, New York State council assets alone are over $100M https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/02/18/boy-scouts-bsa-chapter-11-bankruptcy-sexual-abuse-cases/1301187001/ National Assets: High Adventure Bases (including loan due from Summit) = $408M Cash (some restricted) = $186M General Investments & Order of Arrow = $200M Texas Building & National Supply = $7M Furniture & Equipment = $30M Receivables = $23.6M Pledge Receiveables = $66M Inventory = $68M (that is a lot of Scout shirts) Prepaid Charges = $22M Other Assets = $14M Interfund Receiv = -$10M = $1.014B of assets … out of the above, what can they use for the victim's fund? What is the size of the victim's fund? $408M of HA bases is going to be the juicy target.
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From what I have seen, executive compensation actually increases during bankruptcies. The reasoning is that to keep top talent during bankruptcy, you have to over pay.
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They listed HA values here: https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/799102_20.pdf Northern Tier - $6.6M Sea Base $16.7M Philmont $40.1M The Summit high adventure facility is in a separate legal entity, Arrow WV. BSA has a note receivable due from Arrow. The note due from Summit is $345M So, total for HA bases = $408.4M out of total Assets of $1.01B
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I don't think this is a good day. A good day would have been a settlement out of court. Significant resources, financial and personal, will be focused on this bankruptcy at National, Regional and Council level. Perhaps in 2+ years, after we emerge, it will be a good day. Thanks to a poster from reddit who reviewed this document. Those who think Councils are out of the woods should read below. (All comments below reposted from reddit) https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/799040_4.pdf Page 4 Page 6 Some local councils will be turning over financial data as part of the bankruptcy. See page 7 This document goes deep into chartering organizations & ineligible volunteer files. Pages 220 to 230 list the various kinds of sponsoring organizations, and break down how many of each type of group (church, Elks, zoo, National Guard units. etc.) are chartering organizations, which is interesting. Pages (approx.) 237-256 cover the historical Ineligible Volunteer files, with a breakdown of how many crimes of each type were recorded each year. It's just chilling. The whole middle section of the document covers this review by UVA, and while it's good that there was a close examination of the data, the findings are horrifying.
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Positive District Changes during Financial Reorganization
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
Councils, especially those with land, will be sued over the next several years ... many already are subject of lawsuits and as National goes bankrupt they will be the next targeted entity.Their primary job will be protecting camp(s) that are critical to program success and I expect that means their legal fees will skyrocket ... leaving less paid roles. I believe National, supported by councils, should perform a national call for volunteers. Contact former scouts directly (especially those under 30) and former long term unit leader plus advertiser the need on Twitter, FB, YouTube and other social media platforms. Have a signup list where they can volunteer. Background check that signup list and once they pass, provide names to Districts who can contact them to help fill out District roles and determine what names could be provided to units. I continue to see Troops in my area struggle due to lack of volunteers. There are parents who take on a few roles, but many SMs and ASMs are ready to step down and the parents are not able (time) or willing to take on the roles. Our District committee is ok, but we need more unit commissioners to help. On a personal level, I am serving as a CC for a pack, Den leader for A Wolf den and SM for a Troop (the first year my son joined). I’ve already announced I am resigning my CC role months ago an no one is stepping up (even after asking 4 different parents directly). Our Troop is growing and large (6 patrols) but they had no SM last year and our growth is due to collapsing Troops in the area. After I aged out of BSA, I never heard from them. I spent countless hours volunteering for FIRST robotics including trips to New Hampshire for training and Atlanta for nationals. I could have provided BSA thousands of volunteer hours in my 20s but I didn’t think of it and I never saw the ask/need where as FIRST did reach out frequently. If we are going to survive, we need more qualified volunteers. We need an organized ask. -
Boys and Girls club receives significant federal funding (at one point $600M+ per year) and big grants from various corporations. They pay their CEO nearly $1M per year. https://www.forbes.com/companies/boys-girls-clubs-of-america/ They dominate inner city programs and I don’t see the BSA with the funding to compete. It’s sad as I do think the BSA has a great program. I’ve seen the Boys and Girls club camps in my area ... they are impressive and well funded when compared to BSA. I think we need new BSA national leaders who are able to mobilize youth, parents and organizations in a belief that the methods and aims are needed in today’s generation. I believe they are, but the message is being drowned out by STEM and abuse cases.
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This may be a bit rough, but... Why are our key 3 all retirement age and UK’s head honchos look to be in the prime of their careers? Just one example... Check Twitter... Our new CSE is the only one that seems to have an account and he has 11 followers and one tweet in 2013 about a car accident. Bear Grylls ... very active on Twitter with 1.4 million followers Matt Hyde... 8,000 plus followers, active on Twitter Tim Kidd... 7,000 plus followers, active Twitter is just one way I would expect BSA leaders (as individuals) to connect with parents and youth today. Instead, BSA is run by the individuals that do not know how to connect to scouts in this generation and they send out their messages is website newsletters that probably never reach the youth. Where is our energetic leaders, out there making news, taking charge of engaging youth and local volunteers? Where is the aggressive media arm retweeting the great work of scouts? I see good work out of Bryan... perhaps he should be one of our key 3 (he has over 5,000 followers on Twitter). I question if they really do know millennials (parents) and gen z (scouts) or if they are just relying on surveys. The absence of any communication from our new leader is sad.
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Positive Council Changes during Financial Reorganization
Eagle1993 replied to Cburkhardt's topic in Issues & Politics
Even in rich suburbs the fees are starting to get laughs. When my daughter joined a GSUSA Troop the parents were asking about fees. The GSUSA rep said they were not set yet as the Troop sets their own fee (I think GSUSA charges $25). One parent asked if total would be under $100. The GSUSA (and parents laughed) and said... “of course! we are not the Boy Scouts.” We haven’t paid much since (and no FOS begging) given cookie sales. -
How do you handle a situation where a scout is a member of another Troop and reaches out to ask to attend your Troop meeting as they may like to switch? I’m definitely welcoming to the youth, but do you let the other SM know? My concern is that I continue to see Troops in my area collapse. Many have SMs who would like to step down (at least to ASM) but they cannot find parents willing to serve. We have scouts that would have attended several other Troops in the area, which is accelerating their demise. I would never push away a scout, but it would make the Troop he leaves even weaker. Would it make sense to reach out to SM to see if he has ideas on why the scout would leave?