Eagle1993

From what I understand ... many lawyers and claimants were told they could expect big payouts from insurance companies. Think $XB or even $XXB. What they are seeing from a major insurance company is <$1B ... which is making them reconsider and may then demand more money from other sources (LCs, BSA and COs).

BSA proposed an nearly identical plan earlier. It was their toggle plan and they claimed they could survive. It was their backup incase the claimant voted down the current plan. I think many LCs would be fine due to current SOL laws, those at high risk could settle directly with TCC.

This is a bit odd as during the hearing on Sept 21 she will decide if she should delay the hearing scheduled Sept 21?

Started new thread here

And she went on for a page and a half as to every reason why she objected to the idea.

There is 0 percent chance she allows this. It seemed to anger her a bit. It looks like a bribe....

Didn't the judge scrap this ask as part of the RSA?

I think its highly likely she delays the Sept 21 hearing. I do question if she allows a different deal. That said, she needs a deal with 66%+ of the claimants and the Coalition alone may not get it there (remember, many of those claimants are actually shared with Kosnoff). Plus, if only voting claimants count, I've seen objections from many law firms that seem very active with smaller groups of claimants (and I expect they can rally votes quickly). If the TCC is NOT onboard, she runs a major risk of having the vote fail. She is probably better off with a deal that the TCC is onboard with even if it loses support from Insurance and LDS.

There is only 1 reason BSA incorporated in Delaware 2 years before bankruptcy and it isn't their business friendly tax rates (as MOST of their business stayed in Texas ... not exactly a high tax state). https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2021/06/29/bankruptcy-court-venue-shopping-targeted-bipartisan-bill/7803835002/

If BSA only incorporated in 2019 I bet you he is correct (at least in terms of picking Delaware). BSA knew they were in serious financial trouble for many years. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/money/business/2014/09/19/companies-turn-delaware-survive-bankruptcy/15891887/

Yes ... I think sometimes "unrestricted" is a grey area. I know my council has listed a bunch of properties as restricted but are looking at selling them anyway.

That is another good look. I took the most optimistic (in terms of claimants) aspect of payouts. Assuming that every council is 100% correct on their net unrestricted assets. It would be good to see the total asset look as well. Obviously there are many other factors (like SOLs, # of claims) that could be factored in the payout by council.

Total payout from LCs = $519,588,540 vs total $1,870,754,935 net unrestricted assets = 27.8% Local Council Name Total Contribution Net Unrestricted Assets % Payout Greater Alabama 3,685,328 5,858,141 63% AlabamaFlorida 114,311 162,947 70% Mobile Area 34,897 76,647 46% Tukabatchee Area 832,901 3,625,053 23% Black Warrior 767,974 2,273,695 34% Grand Canyon 7,007,972 9,582,089 73% Catalina 1,080,484 2,930,433 37% De Soto Area 130,903 734,154 18% Westark Area 942,308 1,737,613 54% Quapaw Area 4,616,045 12,824,556 36% Golden Gate Area 8,000,000 10,325,190 77% Sequoia 567,536 9,912,453 6% Southern Sierra 148,908 -249,930 -60% Pacific Skyline 2,905,055 7,927,061 37% Long Beach Area 4,262,425 5,122,574 83% Greater Los Angeles Area 8,000,000 31,726,269 25% Marin 1,030,344 3,474,055 30% Orange County 13,008,500 38,005,058 34% Redwood Empire 197,221 1,412,193 14% Piedmont 541,098 5,544,891 10% California Inland Empire 1,154,569 2,893,220 40% Golden Empire 1,320,000 6,551,803 20% San DiegoImperial 2,661,800 -566,856 -470% Western Los Angeles County 1,250,000 9,690,805 13% Los Padres 1,834,155 14,453,991 13% Silicon Valley Monterey Bay 10,000,000 33,397,061 30% Ventura County 325,018 1,437,344 23% Verdugo Hills 973,434 6,230,000 16% Greater Yosemite 2,200,000 3,753,019 59% Pikes Peak 1,718,941 5,605,495 31% Denver Area 6,000,000 21,140,913 28% Longs Peak 2,936,807 4,722,329 62% Rocky Mountain 11,492 659,135 2% Connecticut Rivers 4,083,054 6,164,604 66% Greenwich 802,477 8,182,865 10% Housatonic 235,901 1,224,069 19% Old North State 4,767,600 10,589,939 45% Connecticut Yankee 2,581,836 4,716,717 55% DelMarVa 2,241,287 12,402,191 18% National Capital Area 8,000,000 33,820,605 24% Central Florida 1,224,354 8,604,279 14% South Florida 3,163,180 14,275,784 22% Gulf Stream 1,170,000 3,129,806 37% North Florida 5,284,701 7,459,145 71% Southwest Florida 2,121,962 7,997,609 27% Greater Tampa Bay Area 6,052,120 18,192,495 33% Chattahoochee 937,997 6,082,594 15% Atlanta Area 8,000,000 58,149,032 14% GeorgiaCarolina 326,070 1,786,314 18% Flint River 766,174 6,970,107 11% Central Georgia 299,458 1,392,435 22% South Georgia 436,247 1,952,636 22% Coastal Georgia 2,584,395 17,382,082 15% Northwest Georgia 802,019 1,600,467 50% Northeast Georgia 2,138,766 6,396,650 33% Aloha 1,338,358 5,975,712 22% Mountain West 2,020,156 7,578,672 27% Grand Teton 1,091,207 6,775,425 16% Prairielands 467,331 2,252,777 21% Three Fires 1,601,000 2,454,029 65% Northeast Illinois 2,190,574 8,230,332 27% Illowa 783,586 3,364,933 23% W.D. Boyce 1,045,115 3,004,490 35% Mississippi Valley 989,191 3,795,781 26% Abraham Lincoln 1,568,064 2,458,695 64% Hoosier Trails 757,931 1,968,860 38% Buffalo Trace 553,341 2,586,680 21% Anthony Wayne Area 1,309,804 3,604,204 36% Crossroads of America 4,321,870 24,178,049 18% Sagamore 1,149,115 4,861,534 24% LaSalle 1,319,467 5,790,020 23% Hawkeye Area 446,691 1,100,691 41% Winnebago 723,157 2,670,485 27% MidIowa 2,502,671 16,033,550 16% Northeast Iowa 678,374 2,452,014 28% Coronado Area 856,886 2,710,907 32% Santa Fe Trail 203,382 762,886 27% Jayhawk Area 345,573 1,777,238 19% Quivira 975,000 4,157,657 23% Blue Grass 110,356 1,520,150 7% Lincoln Heritage 3,632,563 12,521,252 29% Calcasieu Area 442,315 2,310,197 19% Istrouma Area 680,000 2,688,810 25% Evangeline Area 167,830 243,363 69% Louisiana Purchase 1,167,454 4,170,751 28% Southeast Louisiana 1,877,632 5,729,971 33% Norwela 2,936,807 12,640,310 23% Katahdin Area 275,157 386,682 71% Pine Tree 904,025 3,651,504 25% Baltimore Area 4,317,564 12,242,788 35% MasonDixon 345,990 3,737,266 9% Cape Cod and Islands 844,020 4,903,912 17% Spirit of Adventure 3,840,767 8,058,233 48% Heart of New England 1,406,503 1,876,850 75% Western Massachusetts 664,939 1,514,624 44% Northern Star 7,223,055 45,643,422 16% Mayflower 5,035,539 22,562,733 22% Twin Valley 783,963 3,706,565 21% Voyageurs Area 510,201 1,210,218 42% Central Minnesota 276,941 2,483,885 11% Gamehaven 321,630 1,393,364 23% Choctaw Area 519,164 3,394,222 15% Andrew Jackson 1,512,001 1,519,057 100% Pine Burr Area 330,068 2,911,447 11% Ozark Trails 2,241,929 5,368,753 42% Heart of America 6,971,313 18,738,579 37% Pony Express 1,015,000 4,430,970 23% Greater St. Louis Area 7,986,838 31,740,144 25% Montana 3,181,676 33,748,789 9% Overland Trails 468,988 1,325,334 35% Cornhusker 356,000 3,827,718 9% MidAmerica 4,280,708 8,289,589 52% Las Vegas Area 3,385,736 4,968,407 68% Nevada Area 2,506,435 9,478,814 26% Daniel Webster 3,525,762 10,286,304 34% Northern New Jersey 3,064,566 6,863,268 45% Jersey Shore 386,141 1,120,096 34% Monmouth 3,170,811 10,212,112 31% Patriots' Path 3,704,240 7,830,214 47% Twin Rivers 2,595,200 4,229,406 61% BadenPowell 1,371,787 4,015,196 34% Longhouse 840,707 1,581,633 53% Five Rivers 831,968 2,972,059 28% Iroquois Trail 342,546 283,246 121% Greater Niagara Frontier 1,537,485 3,346,922 46% Allegheny Highlands 899,358 2,113,548 43% Theodore Roosevelt 3,989,485 9,905,508 40% Greater Hudson Valley 6,367,835 11,731,515 54% Seneca Waterways 8,000,000 11,797,728 68% Leatherstocking 4,493,457 11,828,471 38% Suffolk County 1,717,800 1,329,216 129% Rip Van Winkle 240,016 121,824 197% Great Southwest 116,570 1,275,497 9% Conquistador 1,950,432 2,700,824 72% Daniel Boone 656,424 7,829,640 8% Mecklenburg County 2,920,183 11,248,480 26% Central North Carolina 1,840,659 5,199,820 35% Piedmont 2,785,859 9,801,687 28% Occoneechee 1,946,429 6,056,221 32% Tuscarora 858,650 1,365,311 63% Cape Fear 1,044,895 5,557,337 19% East Carolina 1,940,873 5,040,234 39% Old Hickory 1,084,223 5,253,957 21% Northern Lights 1,915,148 13,766,368 14% Great Trail 3,059,259 9,525,356 32% Buckeye 2,614,529 6,322,015 41% Dan Beard 4,064,829 13,233,734 31% Tecumseh 653,395 2,799,022 23% Lake Erie 6,546,918 11,269,256 58% Simon Kenton 2,659,872 8,647,700 31% Miami Valley 1,255,126 5,399,371 23% Black Swamp Area 1,681,202 7,775,738 22% Pathway to Adventure 7,225,067 15,824,269 46% Erie Shores 4,161,154 22,222,575 19% Muskingum Valley 513,391 2,934,099 17% Arbuckle Area 572,866 4,618,434 12% Cherokee Area 315,366 5,014,481 6% Cimarron 282,652 1,932,008 15% Last Frontier 3,646,048 6,594,443 55% Indian Nations 2,637,142 28,426,208 9% Crater Lake 320,470 681,197 47% Cascade Pacific 10,000,000 34,421,289 29% Juniata Valley 421,504 1,893,688 22% Moraine Trails 1,196,485 6,858,072 17% Northeastern Pennsylvania 687,262 2,988,316 23% Minsi Trails 2,580,916 6,716,274 38% ColumbiaMontour 260,931 675,522 39% Bucktail 260,931 520,567 50% WestmorelandFayette 1,367,518 1,621,221 84% Pennsylvania Dutch 1,054,371 5,329,855 20% Cradle of Liberty 6,806,713 14,249,730 48% Laurel Highlands 5,972,147 23,961,119 25% Hawk Mountain 1,636,124 6,589,184 25% French Creek 699,673 2,525,616 28% Susquehanna 453,846 2,649,064 17% Chief Cornplanter 260,931 417,106 63% Chester County 1,559,680 6,856,711 23% New Birth of Freedom 2,713,971 7,383,106 37% Narragansett 6,440,530 18,836,603 34% Palmetto 165,998 442,822 37% Coastal Carolina 216,987 317,720 68% Blue Ridge 1,058,966 4,681,093 23% Pee Dee Area 889,440 2,207,773 40% Indian Waters 556,559 1,296,106 43% Cherokee Area 1,180,000 1,947,397 61% Great Smoky Mountain 1,193,687 5,869,902 20% Chickasaw 2,045,752 4,733,366 43% West Tennessee Area 140,520 135,786 103% Middle Tennessee 3,586,493 20,264,491 18% Texas Trails 627,654 1,567,414 40% Golden Spread 2,133,734 8,879,958 24% Capitol Area 4,196,142 45,026,850 9% Buffalo Trail 1,148,568 2,331,639 49% Circle Ten 7,989,824 1,828,738 437% Yucca 684,194 1,572,425 44% Bay Area 1,019,611 2,643,449 39% Sam Houston Area 7,968,144 88,569,253 9% South Texas 372,925 4,777,870 8% Three Rivers 802,596 1,071,295 75% Alamo Area 4,241,105 15,476,476 27% Caddo Area 506,208 2,309,301 22% East Texas Area 1,505,910 3,605,254 42% Northwest Texas 529,586 1,551,351 34% Crossroads of the West 4,413,897 36,894,524 12% Green Mountain 802,732 1,652,225 49% Colonial Virginia 347,149 581,632 60% Tidewater 621,354 861,184 72% Shenandoah Area 188,673 902,224 21% Blue Ridge Mountains 739,330 2,199,821 34% Heart of Virginia 2,067,014 6,509,720 32% Blue Mountain 673,098 510,479 132% Mount Baker 2,150,000 7,795,644 28% Chief Seattle 7,517,262 33,363,479 23% Great Alaska 579,090 6,710,102 9% Inland Northwest 164,963 118,020 140% Pacific Harbors 2,260,810 5,353,855 42% Grand Columbia 254,101 2,956,830 9% Mountaineer Area 527,717 3,466,293 15% Buckskin 1,890,783 9,024,883 21% Ohio River Valley 895,582 2,925,194 31% Glacier's Edge 615,218 3,107,723 20% Gateway Area 328,075 1,295,142 25% Samoset 744,921 4,149,307 18% BayLakes 2,876,230 12,448,113 23% Three Harbors 3,685,039 17,038,431 22% Chippewa Valley 411,891 4,663,116 9% Greater Wyoming 405,893 2,035,401 20% Greater New York 9,000,000 10,041,590 90% Potawatomi Area 560,174 2,395,254 23% Great Rivers 420,000 2,031,475 21% Blackhawk Area 1,611,059 5,023,665 32% Puerto Rico 233,059 6,883,357 3% Longhorn 1,619,485 6,059,764 27% Suwannee River Area 224,459 -238,956 -94% Garden State 3,890,626 9,300,738 42% Pushmataha Area 83,882 415,595 20% South Plains 755,075 583,361 129% Black Hills Area 160,573 664,784 24% Midnight Sun 1,023,336 2,126,874 48% Oregon Trail 3,141,676 8,408,697 37% Rainbow 759,968 3,812,852 20% Sequoyah 796,698 4,270,519 19% Sioux 524,247 1,496,185 35% Texas Southwest 221,936 916,498 24% Yocona Area 291,074 863,638 34% Virginia Headwaters 287,066 217,980 132% Gulf Coast 140,734 -292,475 -48% Rio Grande 562,009 1,906,030 29% Washington Crossing 1,390,180 3,906,611 36% Michigan Crossroads 7,983,003 25,109,723 32% Transatlantic 447,138 966,036 46% Far East 778,355 2,886,174 27%

I think if Judge Silverstein is watching the Purdue Pharma case, it may be a while to get to the final approval of the plan. Judge Drain (Purdue Pharma judge) is being blasted by families (one read a 30 minute statement to him that said he was hand picked as essentially approves releases easily and was manipulated by the Sacklers). He is also being ripped by the US Trustee and state AGs. Now, I'm not saying his decision was good or bad, only that he will be know for this decision and it isn't very popular. That said, he had 95% of the claimants approved and most major parties in support. I question if Judge Silverstein would proceed right to a claimant approval if the TCC and US Trustee objects. I can't imagine this massive case that is granting coverage of non debtor parties going through without fully digging into why the TCC objects and determining if that is valid. If Drain is being blasted now, what would be the fall back on Silverstein if she approved the case over the objection of her hand picked representative of claimants? I'm sure that is in her mind and will dig into the TCC's objections (assuming they are not supporting the plan per media reports). So ... I think once again we will see stories of plan agreed upon, etc. Perhaps. However, if the TCC objects we may have to wait some time.

Now you know why COs are upset. BSA + Councils + Hartford $1.637M/84,000 claims = $19.5K per claim for all three combined. LDS alone is on the hook for double that rate.

Exhibit C of Disclosure has every LC’s contribution listed.

I’m somewhat hopeful; however, for some reason I feel more pessimistic than I did last week. Perhaps I’m overthinking this but I tend to think we may still be a ways from a final solution. To me, the LDS payout is the big hurdle, followed by Hartford. 1) The TCC carries a ton of influence. I expect the judge will question why the Coalition supports it vs the TCC. At minimum, TCCs non support will impact the vote. Coalition will have to defend that they are representing their clients and not their financial backers. 2) US Trustee will likely object. In the Purdue Pharma the US Trustee objected and now has asked for the approved plan to be stayed as they are appealing. Even if this gets approved, expect appeals and delays. 3) Purdue Pharma judge Drain made changes to the plan and was slightly hesitant approving it. That plan had 95% claimants approving. The BSA judge doesn’t want the BSA to end, but if she is absolving the liability of insurance companies, National, LCs, COs …. she will be extremely cautious. The big pots of money are now gone and the total payout for most victims will be peanuts with no hope of further payouts in state courts. If there was some big potential targets post bankruptcy we may have had a better shot of getting this through now. By adding a CO and including Hartford this case got more complicated which may not speed up closure. I tend to think now that the TCC and lawyers that have state court filings are going to fight tooth and nail against the deal. The judge has had almost no sympathy for the Coalition, we will see what she thinks of the TCC.

I would take this as a sign that Kosnoff could support something short of dissolving BSA. The issue with the coalition is that I am sure they don’t control 100% of the votes of their claimants. If TCC objects along with other attorneys it could fail when it goes to vote. BSA really needs the TCC onboard. This will be a disaster if a plan goes to vote and that vote fails.

LDS $250M https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hartford-pay-787-million-boy-scouts-sex-abuse-insurance-deal-2021-09-14/

To be fair, we have NO idea what he will recommend when it comes to the actual vote. You must consider that negotiations are ongoing when any party (BSA, collation, TCC, Kosnoff, insurance companies) makes statements in public. Kosnoff has been following the case closely and knows the judge will do everything possible to prevent BSA from filing CH7. So, I'm not 100% convinced he will ask his claimants to vote against the deal if he knows the alternate is worse for him and the victims he represents. I'm sure he will state its the Coalition and/or TCC's fault, but I am not yet sold that he will reject any non CH7 deal. I'm also not 100% convinced the TCC will sign off on the deal if BSA has one with the Coalition. Time will tell and even when a deal comes out, you may be right, it could fail to get 2/3rds.

They have a good PLC along with a large contingent of ASMs and have been doing this for decades. Good bet is they have fall back plans all ready. I am 100% sure that those 600 campouts had several that were rescheduled (within the month) due to bad weather. I think many of our Troops could learn a lot from this one. Unless I hear otherwise, I assume they did it safely and with good scout spirit!

I hedged a bit as on twitter a few times he told people he had not yet decided his opinion until he read the plan. I'm not 100% convinced he would only support Ch 7. That said, I think he would likely want to see a much higher contribution from the LCs than they are paying currently in the RSA. Now, if BSA and LCs increased their contribution to a significant portion of their total assets I would think he could support the deal. Note that I am not saying this is feasible or likely, only that I wouldn't be surprised if he supported a deal short of Ch 7 ... just not this deal.

I don't see the judge letting BSA die. She seems to have a two clear goals .. don't let BSA die and don't let her decisions lose on appeal. I think she would be ok BSA dies due to massive debt post bankruptcy or a failure of their business plan ... she just doesn't want this on her CV. So ... I expect if Kosnoff is able to rally support to get the plan rejected (note we don't know if, in the end, he will attempt that yet as there is no final official plan) then it is likely the toggle plan (BSA only) and let the state courts and future bankruptcies sort it out. We are almost 2 weeks removed from BSA saying they would come back to the court with an update. The only update they have had is a request to defer state courts until Jan 10 (or later). Concerning that TCC has not seen a plan. One would think it is either Hartford and/or CO negotiations that are the cause of the delay.

That is 2 more likes the the combined total of likes for all of Roger Mosby's tweets in the history of Twitter.